Fantasy Baseball Preview

Its a few weeks before the start of baseball, which brings us to Fantasy Baseball. Most Fantasy Baseball drafts are in full gear right around now. My money league draft was last night. I won this money league last year. More through luck, than my shear genius. Fantasy Baseball is very tough. A lot more tougher than Fantasy Football. You really have to keep up with it a few times a week and most leagues allow roster changes daily. Also, in baseball, the middle tier players are basically even and there are a lot more to select from than with from football. Fantasy Baseball probably has 5 tiers of players as opposed to football with 4 tiers of players. In baseball, 1/2 the players fall into Tier 3, football you won't find such a majority in one tier. The head-to-head leagues are more fun than the classic roto-style or points leagues. You can have a runaway leader in these types of leagues by August and everyone loses interest the last 2 months of the league. Head-to-Head, most teams are in it at the end. I finished 5th in the regular season last year and ended up strategizing my way to winning the season ending tournament.

Most years, you have the runaway or consensus top picks. This year, it's different. The difference between the 1st round players is not much different than the 2nd round players. ARod is #1 on most boards as is mine. Even though an Ortiz or Vlad will put up similar or better numbers than Arod, his 3B position makes him more valuable because of the premium at the position. Here are my Tier 1 rankings. By Tier 1, all these players should be gone the 1st 2 rounds.

Starting Pitching:
Johan Santana - He's in a class by himself. Only thing that I am skeptical of is how he handles the change in leagues.

Relief Pitching: You should not take an RP the 1st 2 rounds. A lot of boards have JJ Putz as the #1 reliever. I have Papelbon as #1.

1B: Albert Pujols, David Ortiz, Prince Fielder, Ryan Howard
Ortiz is the safest pick. Pujols has injury concerns this off-season. Howard strikes out a ton. Fielder has had 1 good year. Will he go through a sophomore jinx? If Pujols didn't have injury concerns, he's the clear #1 at this position.

2B: Chase Utley - No other player in his class. Put up unusual monster numbers for a player at this position. Alfonso Soriano is the only other player to put up great numbers this decade, but his strikeouts were very high and have since switched positions.

SS: Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes, Jimmy Rollins - Unusually a lot of top tier players at this position. Shortstop and catcher are the 2 most premium positions to have if there is a star at the position. The drop-off is very significant at this position. I kind of question Hanley due to Cabrera leaving the Marlins. I think this will affect his production. Most boards put Reyes ahead of Rollins due to the # of steals and runs. I would agree, but you can't go wrong with either. I would go Reyes, Rollins, Hanley.

3B: Alex Rodriquez, David Wright, Miguel Cabrera - ARod is probably the consensus #1 player in Fantasy Baseball. Consistently puts up good numbers at all the categories and at a premium position. The older he gets, the less steals he will get. He's not a runaway #1. David Wright has been a rising star the past few years and now can be deemed in superstar status. His numbers potential can be as good as or better than Arod. He needs someone hitting behind him. If Delgado can have a comeback season hitting behind him, I see MVP numbers. His number of steals caught me by surprise. I'm not sure if he will consistently be a 30-30 man, but more power to him if he does. Cabrera is expected to put up huge numbers in Detroit's loaded lineup. If he can do it in Florida, he definitely can in Detroit, assuming he keeps himself in shape. I would put him at the tail end of Tier 1 though. Some boards put Ryan Braun in the Tier 1 category, but I do not. You have to have some consistency before I put him in Tier 1.

Catcher: Victor Martinez - I'm not sure if I would put any catcher in Tier 1. Victor Martinez is clearly the best fantasy catcher, but I would say he's a late 3rd/4th round pick at best. Unless a catcher puts up prime Piazza numbers, catchers are a low premium. The grind is too much and a catcher rarely makes or breaks your team. Some H2H leagues, you can get away with put 0's at catcher to get better stats.

Outfield: Matt Holliday, Vladimir Guerrero - Outfield is usually the most loaded position. You almost find the best numbers in Outfield, but because there are so many players at this position a stud IF gets top billing in fantasy. However, the field is thin this year. Holliday and Guerrero's numbers do not even match up to any of the top IF players. At best these guys are late 1st round/2nd round guys.

Synopsis

If you did your math, I put 14 guys in Tier 1. Obviously it means you're better off drafting late than early. Here is my Mock draft for the 1st 2 rounds:

1 - Arod, 2 - Reyes, 3 - Rollins, 4 - Utley, 5 - Hanley, 6 - Wright, 7 - Santana, 8 - Pujols, 9 - Ortiz, 10 - Howard, 11 - Fielder, 12 - Cabrera, 13 - Holliday, 14 - Vlad

Tier 2 Players

Tier 2 Players are where most of the mistakes are. You will see a lot of owners reach at this level. Tier 1 and Tier 2 Players should make up the first 4 rounds of your draft. Here are my Tier 2 Players.

Starting Pitching: Jake Peavy, Brandon Webb, Erik Bedard, CC Sabathia, Josh Beckett, Justin Verlander - These 6 pitchers are just barely a notch below Santana. If you include Santana, you've have 7 players in Tiers 1 and 2. Obviously, in a 12 team league, at least 5 owners will not get a Tier 1 or 2 SP. If you are one of them, go pitching heavy in Round 5 thru 8. The order I listed the pitchers are the order I rank them. With Beckett's injury, I thought about moving him behind Verlander, but he could be a Tier 1 pitcher if he was healthy. I was kind of wary of Bedard, but he possibly can shine on a playoff contender rather than the woeful Orioles. I still cannot believe the Orioles traded him.

Relief Pitching: Papelbon, JJ Putz - These are the only 2 relievers I would rank Tier 2. Remember, I did not put a reliever in Tier 1. Nathan and Krod almost fell into this tier. However, I see Nathan's Save Opps decreasing, and KRod lost some swagger last year.

First Base: Berkman, Texiera - I rated Berkman ahead of Tex b/c he's eligible for OF in some leagues. Tex is in a contract year, but my only concern is Atlanta's stadium in not the soap box Texas was.

Second Base: Brandon Phillips - I would rank him at the very bottom of Tier 2. I had a hard time putting him here, but the Reds are good offensively with Dunn and Griffey in the lineup. I almost ranked Cano here but there are several other 2B's that can put up similar number.

Short Stop: Troy Tulowitzki - Playing in Colorado helps. With Matt Holliday and Helton in the lineup with him, he should get opportunities. I did not put Jeter in Tier 2. He's not the stolen base threat he use to be and his offensive numbers have slipped the past few years.

Third Base: Ryan Braun - He put up huge numbers in Milwaukee's lineup last year. Like I said with Prince Fielder, his teammate, I would like to see more consistency. He has potential to be a Tier 1 player. Personally, I would put Aramis Ramirez in this tier. I think he will have a monster year with the Cubs this year. However, I cannot state facts supporting my argument, so I left him out to be objective.

Catcher: Victor Martinez - As stated earlier, there are no Tier 1 catchers. Victor is the clear #1 catcher, but at Tier 2.

Outfield: Carlos Beltran, Carlos Lee, Grady Sizemore, Carl Crawford, Alfonso Soriano - These are your next tier of OFs. I list Berkman as a 1B, but he would fall into the Tier 2 OF category. Which of these OFs you pick in your draft depends who you picked beforehand. Take the power numbers if you chose someone like Reyes, Santana in the 1st round. Crawford or Sizemore if you took someone like Ortiz, Fielder, Pujols in the early round. You can make up steals in the later rounds with your lower tier players. If you take Crawford or Sizemore, make sure to take the power numbers with your Tier 3-4 players. The 82 Cardinals may have won the World Series on defense and speed, but it will get you the cellar in Fantasy baseball.

Synopsis

Should have counted 19 players in Tier 2, totaling 33 for Tiers 1-2. Since Santana was the only Tier 1 pitcher, do not draft a Tier 2 pitcher with your next pick. You balance out your team with your Tier 2 selection. I'd probably go with the pitching with the Tier 2 selections. After the pitching is gone, go with the OFs or 1Bs, depending on #s/needs. Brandon Phillips and Victor Martinez would probably me my last 2 players in Tier 2.

In case you were wondering, here were my round-by-round selections for the first few rounds. I may have made 1 or 2 drafting mistakes, but I think my Tier system balanced my team very well. I picked 8th by-the-way:

Round 1 - David Wright, 2 - David Ortiz, 3 - Brandon Webb, 4 - CC Sabathia, 5 - Saito, 6 - Verlander, 7 - Torii Hunter, 8 - Posada, 9 - Rivera, 10 - Carmona

I may have went too high on Saito, but got steals with Verlander and Carmona. I've got a deep bench and back-ups at every position but Catcher, which is not that important anyways. Hopefully I can defend my crown.