College Football - 11/27/07

What a crazy year it has been for college football! Right now Mizzou and West Virginia control their own destiny for the National Championship Game. I think Mizzou will lose to Oklahoma this weekend and West Virginia will win. That will probably make a West Virginia - Ohio State National Championship Game. I don't think either team are the top 2 teams in the country. Neither have played a strong schedule. I cannot trust West Virginia. They never won a big game or ever been in a big game (Don't count the ND-WVU game in 1988, too long ago). Ohio State had a pathetic non-conference schedule and played in a very weak Big 10 conference. However, both teams will most likely get there through the very flawed 'system'. When healthy and with a month to prepare, I think the 2 best teams and most exciting match-up would be USC vs Florida. Below is my case for these 2 teams and not the other teams listed and ranked up there:

LSU - Everyone has said they were consistently the best team in the country this year and some still think so. I think the talent is there, but not the coaching. I think Les Miles is very over-rated as a head coach. Over the past few years, I've seen a lot of bad coaching decisions. Their Kentucky loss, they ran the ball on 4th and 2 to end the game. In that situation, you have to throw, or use your mobile QB for a drop back and perhaps scramble if he sees and opening. Flynn is not a scrambler so obviously a pass should have been called for. Handing off for an off-tackle run was a terrible call. There were a lot of questionable calls in the Arkansas game. They got very lucky in the Auburn game. Even though it turned out good for them, how could you make that call to pass for a TD with very little time left when a short FG would have won it?

Georgia - Everyone thinks this team is one of the hottest in the country. I cannot give credit to a team that loses to a 6-6 South Carolina team at home and gets blown out to an average Tennessee team. They did beat Florida, but wild and crazy things happen in rivalries. Bowl games are not rivalries.

Ohio State - Who have they played? Scheduled 3 non-conference patsies. The NCAA went from an 11 to a 12 game schedule last year and every team had the opportunity to schedue the 12th game. They chose to schedule a patsy rather than a major conference game. Granted, they did schedule Texas the previous 2 years. Heck, I would even give them more credit if they scheduled some team like NC State like they did a few years ago, even though NC State is down. The Big 10 is very weak this year. In the SEC or Pac 10, this is a 2-3 loss team. I think the chips will fall their way to get into the big game. I do like them if they play West Virginia in the title game.

West Virginia - Big East is subpar at best. Maybe a tad stronger than the Big 10. I do give them credit for trying to schedule non-conference games from another major conference (Maryland and Miss. State). I know there are always politics involved in matching major conferences against each other. Especially when one school may seat 80,000 while another school only seats 40,000. I just don't trust West Virginia. They've never won a big game and there have been more letdowns than positives from their program. Losing to South Florida this year along with their 5-6 turnovers in that game. Same thing last year. When everything is there for the taking, somehow they let you down. I think they will beat Pitt this week and move onto the National Title game. If they play Ohio State, I think Ohio State will beat them. Ohio State's coaching and experience in big games is a big plus for them. If they play Mizzou in the National Title game, I think they can win against them for the fact Mizzou doesn't have the experience either and talent wins out.

Missouri - They have to beat Oklahoma to get to the National Title game. Oklahoma beat them 41-31 earlier this year. I see much the same in the Big 12 Championship this week, unless something freaky happens like OK's QB gets hurt. They looked good against Kansas, but neither is a top 5 team. I didn't really see a lot of speed and great athletes like you see with Florida, LSU, or USC. If they do make it to the National Title game against WVU or Ohio State, they lose.

Oklahoma - Earlier in the year, I thought Oklahoma and LSU were the 2 best teams in the country. I changed my mind on Oklahoma after their loss to Texas Tech. Their offense looked lost after their QB got hurt. I know a lot of teams would be lost without their QB, but a top tier team has to have other playmakers willing to step up, which I did not see. This team has a lot of youth balanced in. I think Oklahoma and Florida will be the top 2 teams in the country next year though.

USC - When healthy, this team is the best team in the country. USC has been known for their offense the past few years, but their defensive line is NFL caliber. Watching them against ASU on Thanksgiving night was watching men amongst boys. They did lose to a terrible Stanford team. For that reason, they don't deserve to be in the National Title game even if they would have had 1 loss. However, give this team a month to prepare and get healthy, they are one of the top 2 teams in the country.

Florida - Tim Tebow is the best college QB in the country bar none. It's not fair to compare NFL caliber QB's like Matt Ryan and Woodson to him. College football is all about maximizing your talents and Urban Meyer has an offensive system that is tough for any team to defend. Urban Meyer is one of the best, if not the best, coach in the country. Give him a month to prepare with his talent and he can beat anyone. They do have 3 loses, but you pit them against any of the teams above on January 7th, he would beat any of them. I'm also willing to bet Vegas would have them favored against all the teams above, maybe except USC. Unlike Ohio State, their schedule was their enemy. LSU and Georgia are 2 of the top rated teams in the country and Auburn is no slouch.

Synopsis: USC and Florida are the 2 best teams in the country if there were a playoff.

Prediction: West Virginia will play Ohio State in the BCS title game by process of elimination. Ohio State will win the National Championship.

Alternative Scenario: West Virginia is almost a gimmee to win this week. If Mizzou happens to beat Oklahoma, I think West Virginia defeats Missouri in the title game.

Personal Thought: I hope West Virginia wins the National Championship. What do the people of West Virginia have to hang its head high on? I can't think of anything. It would be great for the state and a great story for college football. I couldn't respect Ohio State if they won it. They backdoored their way in by playing a pathetic non-conference schedule and a weak Big 10. I think the Big 10 needs to under go some changes to make it more fair for other conferences. Why is it on a 12 game schedule, every Big 10 team doesn't play each other? They have no Conference title game and their teams get done with the season before everyone else. I think it would also be a great story if Mizzou won the National Title, but it would be one of those 'who cares'. They weren't hyped up, they don't have passionate fans like WVU or OSU, and I'm sure not many people have seen them play at all not only this year, but in their lifetime.