Men of Troy, Cardiac Cats

What was I thinking? How could I have ever thought Ohio State could keep it close with USC? The reason I thought the way I did is, Ohio State was returning 20 of 22 starters from a team that reached the BCS Title game last year. However, deeper thinking would have made me realize Ohio State was very over-rated last year and back doored their way into the game rather than earning it. I thought they were very over-rated last year. They lack the speed and athletes of the SEC and USC. Keeping the same over-rated players from last year won't close the gap against the SECs and USCs of the world. I agree with the general public and experts. USC is by far the best team in the country. The only other team that has shown something is Oklahoma. However, I don't won't to see a USC-Oklahoma BCS title game, even though that what it looks like we are headed. I want to see USC vs an SEC team. Oklahoma got manhandled by USC years ago and Oklahoma has played poorly in BCS bowls the past few years.

I was half right with most of my predictions last week. I'm 2 for 2 in upsets in College Football so far. Maryland, a 14 point underdog last week, beat Cal. I hope from here out, when a West Coast or Pac-10 teams plays on the East Coast, they shouldn't agree on a 12 Noon start. I picked most of the winners, but not by the margins I predicted. Georgia struggled against South Carolina, Panthers had a tough time with the Bears, but a win is a win.

Georgia survived South Carolina. They probably should have lost the game. Unbelievable how many times South Carolina shot themselves in the foot. Does this mean the Georgia Bulldogs are over-rated? Probably not. South Carolina always plays Georgia tough. We'll get more of an idea if Georgia is for real this weekend against Arizona State.

Georgia Tech lost a close one to Virginia Tech. They probably should have won the game, but didn't. Virginia Tech still doesn't impress me at all. I'm a little worried about Georgia Tech though. Georgia Tech's defense is keeping them in games. I'm not sure if Paul Johnson's offense can survive against the big boys. Also, this is not the type of offense to have when you're playing from behind. Luckily, there are no big boys in the ACC. Hopefully it's the learning curve that is causing GT's offense to sputter.

The Carolina Panther, aka the Cardiac Cats, are back at it. They looked awful the 1st half on Sunday. However, the defense kept them in the game. Luckily, Chicago is not very good offensively. I think Chicago is better than most thought. Their win over Indy is not fluke and Matt Forte looks like he can carry the workload. He's a big, strong RB. He's the real deal. On the other side, Jonathan Stewart showed why the Panthers were so high on him. If he can stay healthy, he will be one of the best RBs in the NFL. Interesting they are playing Minnesota this week. Stewart and Peterson are very similar, a combination of speed and power. Stewart can and will be at Adrian Peterson's level next year if he can stay healthy. Another key is the Panthers re-built offensive line is good. Looks like the gamble with Otah on draft day will pay off. He's still a little raw, but will only get better.

What a Monday Night game. Definitely one of the best Monday Night games in a long time. I was more impressed with the Eagles than with the Cowboys. I was wrong about my assessment of the Eagles and McNabb. McNabb has looked as good as he's ever been. These are the 2 best teams in the NFC. Yes, better than the Packers and Giants. Packers are good, but not great. The Giants injuries and the loss of Osi and Strahan will eventually catch up to them. I wouldn't be surprised if Dallas chokes again this year. I just think they are not committing to the run like they should. They need to go to a more consistent ball control offense rather than a gun-slinging style offense. They will put their defense into too many holes with quick series and high turnovers. The Giants played the perfect style last year. Ball control, consistent, commit to the run, etc. Even the year the Colts won the Super Bowl, they didn't get into the high scoring shootouts they were accustomed to in previous years.

Just a quick comment on the Denver-San Diego game. San Diego got jobbed. If the ref wanted to make up for it, he should have called a holding penalty or something the next play against Denver. There is such a thing as a make-up call. Just shows you the ref cared more about his ego than doing the right thing. I've ref'd football and basketball before. You can practically make a case for holding almost every play in the NFL, just like you can practically call a foul almost every play in basketball.

College Football Breakdown - Week 1

I watched a lot of college football over the weekend. I will breakdown my thoughts and opinions below:

Florida - Yes, they won 56-10 over the weekend. However, I saw a lot of holes in their defense. Their defense was their downfall last year and will be this year. I may have over-rated them a bit. They will struggle against strong rushing teams. However, they have a favorable schedule this year.

Georgia - Georgia suffered a big setback losing a starting Defensive Lineman this weekend. They'll be OK, but their schedule will still be their downfall this year.

Clemson - Could anyone else not see this result? Like I said Tommy Bowden is a big game choker. Most of their Offensive Line is new. They got all the accolades because of the return of their glamour players. Harper, Spiller, and Davis returned, but as we saw, you need more than them.

Ohio State - Hopefully Beanie Wells will be back for the USC game. USC did look impressive, but I'll still go with Ohio State in their showdown even though I'm not liking it. Their defense is too stacked.

Wake Forest - I should have rated them in my top 3 ACC predictions. They were off my radar. As we saw, the ACC looked bad as a whole.

ACC Football - Yes, everyone is calling them a joke and rightfully so. It's just a bad cycle for them right now. It starts with Miami and FSU, who aren't the dominant teams they use to be. The reason I believe they are down is due to the Florida Gators dominance in the state. Miami and FSU have been spread thin, while the Gators have reaped the benefits in recruiting. Also, there are a lot of over-rated coaches in the ACC. Al Groh and Tommy Bowden to start. Plus, the ACC have a lot of young teams this season.

Cupcake scheduling - I think the BCS should reward scheduling like the NCAA basketball tournament committee does. Whatever formula the BCS uses, they should penalize for scheduling I-AA teams. Strength of Schedule should have more emphasis.

Any changes in my predictions? - Depending on the stature of Beanie Wells injury, I may have to go with USC. Florida and South Carolina, even though they won by big margins, they aren't as good as they seem. Missouri may be better than I thought. I'd probably give them a nod over Texas for #2 in the Big 12.

Coaches that need to go after this season: Dave Wannstedt and Phillip Fulmer. Very poor coaching jobs. They had the talent to dominant their opponents over the weekend, but yet found a way to lose.

College Football Preview

I got started on my blog last week about my college football predictions and didn’t get a chance to get it out before the season. Tough finding time with a baby on the way, I can’t imagine how it will be when he actually arrives. Below were my predictions:

The Georgia Bulldogs were #1 in most preseason polls, but they aren’t the powerhouse pick as we’ve seen in previous years. I do not think UGA will not be there in the end. They may not even win the SEC. At best, I think UGA is a 10-2 team this year, but more than likely 9-3 (not including bowl game). Their schedule is too tough. If they had last year’s schedule, I’d give them more of a chance. If Stafford and Moreno stay for next year, I like them more next year. I know I may get hammered for my prediction because I’m a Georgia Tech graduate, but I’m being realistic. In case you’re wondering what I think of GT this year, I have no clue. I’m not sure how Paul Johnson’s offensive philosophy will work. GT’s schedule is not favorable either. I predict 7-5 for them. Here are my conference and preseason top 10:

1. Oklahoma 2. Ohio State 3. USC 4. Florida 5. Georgia 6. West Virginia 7. Texas 8. Auburn 9. LSU 10. Florida State

SEC – 1. Florida 2. Georgia 3. Auburn

The SEC is always tough to predict. It’s consistently the best college football conference. Florida has suffered a lot of injuries, but Florida is one of those programs where they can easily reload. As long as Tim Tebow is still there and Urban Meyer directing the team, I like them to win the SEC. I do admit, I’m a big Tim Tebow fan. He’s a great football player, a great leader, and most importantly, a great person. If you’ve know anything about Tim Tebow, you know what I’m talking about. Tim Tebow is about a perfect role model you can have. Florida’s schedule is more favorable than Georgia and it’s been forever since Georgia has beaten Florida 2 years in a row. Florida will have revenge on their mind against Georgia due to the end zone shenanigans UGA pulled last year. Auburn will win the SEC West, but will lose to Florida in the SEC Championship.

ACC – 1. Florida State 2. Clemson 3. Virginia Tech

A lot of the media is picking Clemson this year. Living in ACC country, I’ve seen this story plenty of times. Tommy Bowden is as overrated coach you will find and Clemson will lose 1-2 games every year they aren’t supposed to. I like FSU to bounce back this year. They still consistently recruit the best athletes in the ACC. The ACC is not top heavy this year, but if things are close to even in the ACC, I would always take FSU.

Big 12 – 1. Oklahoma 2. Texas 3. Missouri

I like Oklahoma a lot this year. All their tough games are at home this year and they returned most of their key players last year. It was tough picking between Mizzou and Texas. When in doubt, take Texas talent over Mizzou.

Big 10 – 1. Ohio State 2. Illinois 3. Wisconsin

Ohio State returned a lot of players this year. The also play in a weak Big 10 conference. I like Ohio State to beat USC on the road and then run the table. After Ohio State, it doesn’t matter, but Illinois has been coming on the past few years.

Big East – 1. West Virginia 2. Cincinnati 3. South Florida

West Virginia has a favorable schedule this year and can potentially run the table. Their tough games are at home. Pat White is back, but losing Steve Slayton will affect them in the long run. They will slip up somewhere. Cincinnati is my pick to finish 2^nd. They came on strong late last season and have improved the past few years. This year, they will reap the rewards. Unfortunately they play at WVU.

Pac 10 – 1. USC 2. Arizona State 3. Oregon

This is still USC’s league. They play ASU and Oregon at home this year. However, I will see them struggle offensively against upper tier opponent and lose to Ohio State. Sanchez is their QB. I think he’s a little over-rated. He was the QB when they lost to a 40 point underdog in Stanford last year. It’s a toss-up between ASU and Oregon for 2^nd. ASU plays Oregon at home.

Others – 1. Fresno State 2. Utah 3. BYU

Notice no Notre Dame. They are a 7-5/8-4 team at best. Fresno State has a lot of returning starters. Utah does too. I think Fresno has a better defense, so gave them a nod. I don’t think we’ll see any of them in a BCS bowl this year though.

National Championship: Oklahoma over Ohio State

After I wrote this, I saw that Sports Illustrated picked the same National Championship game. However, I picked Oklahoma, while Sports Illustrated picked Ohio State. Reason being is Oklahoma will be more battle tested during the season. Texas, Cincinnati, Missouri will give them big game experience. Ohio State’s only big game will be against USC. The Big Ten will be weak again this year and will hurt Ohio State in the long run in getting their players prepared. It will be a 3-peat of losing for Ohio State.

College Football - 11/27/07

What a crazy year it has been for college football! Right now Mizzou and West Virginia control their own destiny for the National Championship Game. I think Mizzou will lose to Oklahoma this weekend and West Virginia will win. That will probably make a West Virginia - Ohio State National Championship Game. I don't think either team are the top 2 teams in the country. Neither have played a strong schedule. I cannot trust West Virginia. They never won a big game or ever been in a big game (Don't count the ND-WVU game in 1988, too long ago). Ohio State had a pathetic non-conference schedule and played in a very weak Big 10 conference. However, both teams will most likely get there through the very flawed 'system'. When healthy and with a month to prepare, I think the 2 best teams and most exciting match-up would be USC vs Florida. Below is my case for these 2 teams and not the other teams listed and ranked up there:

LSU - Everyone has said they were consistently the best team in the country this year and some still think so. I think the talent is there, but not the coaching. I think Les Miles is very over-rated as a head coach. Over the past few years, I've seen a lot of bad coaching decisions. Their Kentucky loss, they ran the ball on 4th and 2 to end the game. In that situation, you have to throw, or use your mobile QB for a drop back and perhaps scramble if he sees and opening. Flynn is not a scrambler so obviously a pass should have been called for. Handing off for an off-tackle run was a terrible call. There were a lot of questionable calls in the Arkansas game. They got very lucky in the Auburn game. Even though it turned out good for them, how could you make that call to pass for a TD with very little time left when a short FG would have won it?

Georgia - Everyone thinks this team is one of the hottest in the country. I cannot give credit to a team that loses to a 6-6 South Carolina team at home and gets blown out to an average Tennessee team. They did beat Florida, but wild and crazy things happen in rivalries. Bowl games are not rivalries.

Ohio State - Who have they played? Scheduled 3 non-conference patsies. The NCAA went from an 11 to a 12 game schedule last year and every team had the opportunity to schedue the 12th game. They chose to schedule a patsy rather than a major conference game. Granted, they did schedule Texas the previous 2 years. Heck, I would even give them more credit if they scheduled some team like NC State like they did a few years ago, even though NC State is down. The Big 10 is very weak this year. In the SEC or Pac 10, this is a 2-3 loss team. I think the chips will fall their way to get into the big game. I do like them if they play West Virginia in the title game.

West Virginia - Big East is subpar at best. Maybe a tad stronger than the Big 10. I do give them credit for trying to schedule non-conference games from another major conference (Maryland and Miss. State). I know there are always politics involved in matching major conferences against each other. Especially when one school may seat 80,000 while another school only seats 40,000. I just don't trust West Virginia. They've never won a big game and there have been more letdowns than positives from their program. Losing to South Florida this year along with their 5-6 turnovers in that game. Same thing last year. When everything is there for the taking, somehow they let you down. I think they will beat Pitt this week and move onto the National Title game. If they play Ohio State, I think Ohio State will beat them. Ohio State's coaching and experience in big games is a big plus for them. If they play Mizzou in the National Title game, I think they can win against them for the fact Mizzou doesn't have the experience either and talent wins out.

Missouri - They have to beat Oklahoma to get to the National Title game. Oklahoma beat them 41-31 earlier this year. I see much the same in the Big 12 Championship this week, unless something freaky happens like OK's QB gets hurt. They looked good against Kansas, but neither is a top 5 team. I didn't really see a lot of speed and great athletes like you see with Florida, LSU, or USC. If they do make it to the National Title game against WVU or Ohio State, they lose.

Oklahoma - Earlier in the year, I thought Oklahoma and LSU were the 2 best teams in the country. I changed my mind on Oklahoma after their loss to Texas Tech. Their offense looked lost after their QB got hurt. I know a lot of teams would be lost without their QB, but a top tier team has to have other playmakers willing to step up, which I did not see. This team has a lot of youth balanced in. I think Oklahoma and Florida will be the top 2 teams in the country next year though.

USC - When healthy, this team is the best team in the country. USC has been known for their offense the past few years, but their defensive line is NFL caliber. Watching them against ASU on Thanksgiving night was watching men amongst boys. They did lose to a terrible Stanford team. For that reason, they don't deserve to be in the National Title game even if they would have had 1 loss. However, give this team a month to prepare and get healthy, they are one of the top 2 teams in the country.

Florida - Tim Tebow is the best college QB in the country bar none. It's not fair to compare NFL caliber QB's like Matt Ryan and Woodson to him. College football is all about maximizing your talents and Urban Meyer has an offensive system that is tough for any team to defend. Urban Meyer is one of the best, if not the best, coach in the country. Give him a month to prepare with his talent and he can beat anyone. They do have 3 loses, but you pit them against any of the teams above on January 7th, he would beat any of them. I'm also willing to bet Vegas would have them favored against all the teams above, maybe except USC. Unlike Ohio State, their schedule was their enemy. LSU and Georgia are 2 of the top rated teams in the country and Auburn is no slouch.

Synopsis: USC and Florida are the 2 best teams in the country if there were a playoff.

Prediction: West Virginia will play Ohio State in the BCS title game by process of elimination. Ohio State will win the National Championship.

Alternative Scenario: West Virginia is almost a gimmee to win this week. If Mizzou happens to beat Oklahoma, I think West Virginia defeats Missouri in the title game.

Personal Thought: I hope West Virginia wins the National Championship. What do the people of West Virginia have to hang its head high on? I can't think of anything. It would be great for the state and a great story for college football. I couldn't respect Ohio State if they won it. They backdoored their way in by playing a pathetic non-conference schedule and a weak Big 10. I think the Big 10 needs to under go some changes to make it more fair for other conferences. Why is it on a 12 game schedule, every Big 10 team doesn't play each other? They have no Conference title game and their teams get done with the season before everyone else. I think it would also be a great story if Mizzou won the National Title, but it would be one of those 'who cares'. They weren't hyped up, they don't have passionate fans like WVU or OSU, and I'm sure not many people have seen them play at all not only this year, but in their lifetime.