You can call me a Fantasy Football junkie. I'm in 7 money leagues. Yes, I know that is a lot. I really didn't mean to join that many leagues this year, but friends kept calling me the last minute if I'd join. Also, some of the leagues did different things, which made it more challenging (Auction, Pts per Reception, TD based). Drafting takes up the most time, but after that, there really isn't much difference than having 2-3 teams and having 7 teams. By the time I was drafting team 6-7, I could recite the draft by heart. You're already online, it takes no time at all to update your team, and keeping track of players is easy with as much time I spend watching football or Sportscenter. Luckily, I am still eligible to cash in all 7 leagues. The 2 teams I'm doing the worse are thankfully the leagues that have a 'toilet' bowl. That is where the bottom tier teams compete for a small prize to prevent tanking at the end of the season. In 3 of the leagues, I'm in 1st place and the league with the biggest 1st place prize (4 figures); I've got the best record.
Myth: Take RB's early in your draft. Most every fantasy website and publication emphasizes take RBs early in your draft. The claim is the variation between top tier and 2nd tier is greater than any of the other positions. Most of this year's draft went like this: 1 - LT, 2 - S Jackson, 3 - J. Addai, 4 -Gore, 5 - LJ, 6 - Alexander. Look at that list and there is no one fearful on that list. Addai is probably the only one that may be earning his keep, but he's missed a game or 2. You can't even fear LT anymore. I had the luxury to draft LT in 2 of my leagues. One of the leagues, I will be hoping to win the toilet bowl. The other, I'm about 3rd or 4th due to smarter drafting, AP, MB III, Jacobs, C. Taylor. LT is not a dud, but nowhere near expectations of past seasons where he could single handedly carry a Fantasy team.
Draft Strategy: In my drafts, my strategy has always been go with my instinct by targeting certain players early, draft based on your league type, the player's schedule, and try to get a premier QB on your team. My QB logic is against the advice of most of the Fantasy publications. I find it a relief that I can count on the points from by QB week in and week out. Except for the 2 teams I had LT, I drafted from the middle to the end of the 1st round and targeted Peyton Manning on all those teams. I didn't trust the likes of Rudi, Bush, or Maroney who were options at the time. Willie Parker was also a target but a quite a few owners did their homework and took him early over the likes of Alexander and LJ. I had the gut feeling that Gore, LJ, and Alexander would be duds this year. LJ has no QB help, Gore much the same and a tough schedule, Alexander has been on the decline the past few years. S. Jackson surprised me on being a dud. He lost 2 of his offensive linemen the 1st week and got injured early in the season and missed several weeks. I was just lucky I didn't have the 2nd pick in any draft where I would have had to draft him. Several leagues I'm in, you can start 2 RB - 3 WR, instead of the classic 2 RB - 2 WR league. The 3 WR league, I will make sure I get a stud WR and often not draft my RB until the 4th round because I will draft WR 2 of the first 3 rounds with the QB being the other pick. I have to count on my research of who is undervalued and scour religiously on the waiver wire during the season. After all, you see more RB's injured than any position and there is usually always someone out there to carry the load week-to-week as the 1st rounders. I also make sure I overdraft RB's hoping to find those 2 sleepers. In my Big Money league, I was able to grab Ronnie Brown and MB III, who both put up 1st round #'s. Unfortunately Brown's injury hurt my teams as he was the #1 RB when he got injured, but I'm surviving through the waiver wire. I seem to always have one of the top, if not the top, WR corp in the league. After all, the NFL's rules are more designed for the passing game nowadays.
The Tom Brady Effect: Tom Brady by far has been the most superior fantasy football stud this year. Whoever was lucky or smart enough to snag him, most likely in the 2nd round, has to be loving life. I would say all but 1 of my leagues does the person that has Tom Brady is in the upper tier of the league in the standings. Surprisingly, I do not have Tom Brady on any of my teams. It seems almost every year, there is that 1 Fantasy stud that shoots a team to the top, no matter how average the rest of their team is. Last year it was LT, years before it was Peyton Manning, Larry Johnson, Priest Holmes. For you avid Fantasy Football owners, you know it all depends on how your stud(s) perform during Fantasy Playoffs. Twice, I've had teams that dominated the regular season with like only 1 loss, and get bounced in the 1st round due to studs turning to duds (Culpepper, Alexander in their prime), or freakish things happening like those waiver wire miracles (Drew Bennett and Billy Volek a few years ago). For most leagues, Fantasy Playoffs start next week. I am very hopeful I do not meet the owner that has Tom Brady until the Finals (If I make it). You're looking at Brady against the Jets and Dolphins during the semis and finals. Brady could be looking at 6-7 TDs those games. I'm just hoping Belichick spends those weeks trying to develop a run game.
The Perfect Draft and Updated Fantasy Rankings: There were 2 routes in drafting the perfect fantasy team this year, each involving drafting Brady or Romo. This is based on your drafts scenario assuming your draft followed like most leagues where players should have been drafted according to preseason rankings. No one would have draft Brady #1 before the season started. The 1st route obviously was getting Brady. The perfect scenario was probably drafting Brian Westbrook with the 6 or 7 pick and taking Brady on the comeback in the 2nd round, the 3rd round taking Randy Moss, the 4th round take MB III, or AP. The 2nd route was taking LT, Addai, Westbrook, or Parker depending where you drafted in the 1st round. Take a stud WR like TO, Chad Johnson, or Wayne in the 2nd round. 3rd round take Plaxico, Fitzgerald, Ronnie Brown, or Randy Moss. 4th round take Gates, MB III or AP. Then get Romo in the 5th or 6th round. If your draft followed only 2-3 of those picks in either scenario, you're likely at the top of your league.
If you could do your fantasy draft again before the season started based on what you know now, these are my rankings:
1 - Brady, 2 - Romo, 3 - Moss, 4 - LT, 5 - Westbrook, 6 - Adrian Peterson, 7 - Favre, 8 - TO, 9 - Addai, 10 - Peyton Manning. AP could be moved up, but with his running style, he's bound for an injury once a year. Peyton may be a reach at 10 this year, but he's been consistent with 250 + yards/game and 2 TDs a game. I would take that consistency over someone like Palmer who may have that 300+, 3-4 TD game and come back with a sub 200, 1 TD, 2-3 int game. The total points may be higher, but consistency counts more you're playing week-to-week. I believe Manning's only had 1 bad week this season. Injuries change things a lot. There will be those duds that turns into studs during playoffs and those players elevated more in the game plan due to injuries. With Fantasy playoffs coming up, you have to hope these studs don't turn to duds. If I had to pick who might, I'd pick Westbrook and Favre. Westbrook seems banged up every week, so you better have Buckhalter on your roster. I have a feeling he will miss a game in the coming weeks. Also, Favre may not put up the numbers in coming weeks. They are playing porous Run D's the next 2 weeks and who knows what the weather will be like when they play Chicago.
Pick for Tonight:
Dallas -7 Favre is 0 fer in Dallas. Lots of injuries (KGB and Woodson). Woodson hurts them the most.
Later tonight, I will have my College and Pro Football picks for the weekend.
Thursday, November 29, 2007
Wednesday, November 28, 2007
State of the NFL - 11/28/07
Here we are after Week 12 and not much has changed over the past few weeks. The Patriots are still undefeated, the Cowboys and Packers still rule the NFC, and the Dolphins are still winless. Looking over the rest of the schedule, I do think the Patriots will go undefeated this season. The only possible hiccup is Week 17 at the Giants (Sorry Steeler fans, no chance next week because your team can't play on the road). The Patriots may not have much to play for that week except for the record and the Giants might have everything to play for and they are at home.
There are a lot of Patriots bashers and haters out there, but I like what they are doing. There should not be an asterik because of Spygate if they do run the table. The Patriots got caught because they were arrogant about it. I can guarantee you they weren't the only ones doing it. There have been wide-spread cheating, or what some like to say, unfair advantage in the NFL for a long time. Whether it's the dome teams feeding in noise, teams opening trucking dock doors for a wind advantage on Field Goals, the Headset/Communication system randomly blacking out, or the home team growing the grass thick on purpose if they feel they have a speed disadvantage. The list goes on and on.
Before this year, I thought the 85 Chicago Bears were the greatest team I've seen in my lifetime. Offensively, I think this Patriots team is the best I've seen. They have a lot of flaws on defense as the Eagles showed on Sunday. I think the 85 Bears Defense was more dominant than the Patriots Offense of this year. I would like to see the Patriots beat a playoff caliber team 56-10 or whatever instead of inferior teams like the Dolphins, Bills, or Redskins. Do it against Pittsburgh, Indy, Jacksonville, etc and I will be sold. The Patriots Offense have yet to prove they can run the ball. The only way they will lose if a team outscores them and plays error free football. I think Indy and Dallas are the only 2 teams that could possibly do that, even though the Patriots have already defeated them. If the Patriots have to play either again this year, it could spell trouble because Indy and Dallas can correct their mistakes from the 1st game. If they go undefeated this year, I'm not ready to say they are the greatest team of all-time, but they will be one of the greatest.
Top 10 NFL Rankings
1 - New England Patriots (No question about it)
2 - Indianapolis Colts (Lots of injuries, but the champs get respect from me)
3 - Dallas Cowboys (Like the Cowyboys against the Packers tomorrow)
4 - Green Bay Packers (Still need to establish a running game against good teams)
5 - Pittsburgh Steelers (Need to show they can win on the road)
6 - Jacksonville Jaguars (On a roll, very physical, and Garrard is the real deal)
7 - Seatle Seahawks (Hasselbeck is carring this team on offense.)
8 - Cleveland Browns (Who would have thunk it?)
9 - Tampa Bay Bucaneers (Been overlooked because of dreadful NFC South)
10 - San Diego Chargers (Most underachieving team in the NFL. Should be Top 5.)
That's it for today. Tomorrow: Fantasy Football and weekend football picks
There are a lot of Patriots bashers and haters out there, but I like what they are doing. There should not be an asterik because of Spygate if they do run the table. The Patriots got caught because they were arrogant about it. I can guarantee you they weren't the only ones doing it. There have been wide-spread cheating, or what some like to say, unfair advantage in the NFL for a long time. Whether it's the dome teams feeding in noise, teams opening trucking dock doors for a wind advantage on Field Goals, the Headset/Communication system randomly blacking out, or the home team growing the grass thick on purpose if they feel they have a speed disadvantage. The list goes on and on.
Before this year, I thought the 85 Chicago Bears were the greatest team I've seen in my lifetime. Offensively, I think this Patriots team is the best I've seen. They have a lot of flaws on defense as the Eagles showed on Sunday. I think the 85 Bears Defense was more dominant than the Patriots Offense of this year. I would like to see the Patriots beat a playoff caliber team 56-10 or whatever instead of inferior teams like the Dolphins, Bills, or Redskins. Do it against Pittsburgh, Indy, Jacksonville, etc and I will be sold. The Patriots Offense have yet to prove they can run the ball. The only way they will lose if a team outscores them and plays error free football. I think Indy and Dallas are the only 2 teams that could possibly do that, even though the Patriots have already defeated them. If the Patriots have to play either again this year, it could spell trouble because Indy and Dallas can correct their mistakes from the 1st game. If they go undefeated this year, I'm not ready to say they are the greatest team of all-time, but they will be one of the greatest.
Top 10 NFL Rankings
1 - New England Patriots (No question about it)
2 - Indianapolis Colts (Lots of injuries, but the champs get respect from me)
3 - Dallas Cowboys (Like the Cowyboys against the Packers tomorrow)
4 - Green Bay Packers (Still need to establish a running game against good teams)
5 - Pittsburgh Steelers (Need to show they can win on the road)
6 - Jacksonville Jaguars (On a roll, very physical, and Garrard is the real deal)
7 - Seatle Seahawks (Hasselbeck is carring this team on offense.)
8 - Cleveland Browns (Who would have thunk it?)
9 - Tampa Bay Bucaneers (Been overlooked because of dreadful NFC South)
10 - San Diego Chargers (Most underachieving team in the NFL. Should be Top 5.)
That's it for today. Tomorrow: Fantasy Football and weekend football picks
Tuesday, November 27, 2007
College Football - 11/27/07
What a crazy year it has been for college football! Right now Mizzou and West Virginia control their own destiny for the National Championship Game. I think Mizzou will lose to Oklahoma this weekend and West Virginia will win. That will probably make a West Virginia - Ohio State National Championship Game. I don't think either team are the top 2 teams in the country. Neither have played a strong schedule. I cannot trust West Virginia. They never won a big game or ever been in a big game (Don't count the ND-WVU game in 1988, too long ago). Ohio State had a pathetic non-conference schedule and played in a very weak Big 10 conference. However, both teams will most likely get there through the very flawed 'system'. When healthy and with a month to prepare, I think the 2 best teams and most exciting match-up would be USC vs Florida. Below is my case for these 2 teams and not the other teams listed and ranked up there:
LSU - Everyone has said they were consistently the best team in the country this year and some still think so. I think the talent is there, but not the coaching. I think Les Miles is very over-rated as a head coach. Over the past few years, I've seen a lot of bad coaching decisions. Their Kentucky loss, they ran the ball on 4th and 2 to end the game. In that situation, you have to throw, or use your mobile QB for a drop back and perhaps scramble if he sees and opening. Flynn is not a scrambler so obviously a pass should have been called for. Handing off for an off-tackle run was a terrible call. There were a lot of questionable calls in the Arkansas game. They got very lucky in the Auburn game. Even though it turned out good for them, how could you make that call to pass for a TD with very little time left when a short FG would have won it?
Georgia - Everyone thinks this team is one of the hottest in the country. I cannot give credit to a team that loses to a 6-6 South Carolina team at home and gets blown out to an average Tennessee team. They did beat Florida, but wild and crazy things happen in rivalries. Bowl games are not rivalries.
Ohio State - Who have they played? Scheduled 3 non-conference patsies. The NCAA went from an 11 to a 12 game schedule last year and every team had the opportunity to schedue the 12th game. They chose to schedule a patsy rather than a major conference game. Granted, they did schedule Texas the previous 2 years. Heck, I would even give them more credit if they scheduled some team like NC State like they did a few years ago, even though NC State is down. The Big 10 is very weak this year. In the SEC or Pac 10, this is a 2-3 loss team. I think the chips will fall their way to get into the big game. I do like them if they play West Virginia in the title game.
West Virginia - Big East is subpar at best. Maybe a tad stronger than the Big 10. I do give them credit for trying to schedule non-conference games from another major conference (Maryland and Miss. State). I know there are always politics involved in matching major conferences against each other. Especially when one school may seat 80,000 while another school only seats 40,000. I just don't trust West Virginia. They've never won a big game and there have been more letdowns than positives from their program. Losing to South Florida this year along with their 5-6 turnovers in that game. Same thing last year. When everything is there for the taking, somehow they let you down. I think they will beat Pitt this week and move onto the National Title game. If they play Ohio State, I think Ohio State will beat them. Ohio State's coaching and experience in big games is a big plus for them. If they play Mizzou in the National Title game, I think they can win against them for the fact Mizzou doesn't have the experience either and talent wins out.
Missouri - They have to beat Oklahoma to get to the National Title game. Oklahoma beat them 41-31 earlier this year. I see much the same in the Big 12 Championship this week, unless something freaky happens like OK's QB gets hurt. They looked good against Kansas, but neither is a top 5 team. I didn't really see a lot of speed and great athletes like you see with Florida, LSU, or USC. If they do make it to the National Title game against WVU or Ohio State, they lose.
Oklahoma - Earlier in the year, I thought Oklahoma and LSU were the 2 best teams in the country. I changed my mind on Oklahoma after their loss to Texas Tech. Their offense looked lost after their QB got hurt. I know a lot of teams would be lost without their QB, but a top tier team has to have other playmakers willing to step up, which I did not see. This team has a lot of youth balanced in. I think Oklahoma and Florida will be the top 2 teams in the country next year though.
USC - When healthy, this team is the best team in the country. USC has been known for their offense the past few years, but their defensive line is NFL caliber. Watching them against ASU on Thanksgiving night was watching men amongst boys. They did lose to a terrible Stanford team. For that reason, they don't deserve to be in the National Title game even if they would have had 1 loss. However, give this team a month to prepare and get healthy, they are one of the top 2 teams in the country.
Florida - Tim Tebow is the best college QB in the country bar none. It's not fair to compare NFL caliber QB's like Matt Ryan and Woodson to him. College football is all about maximizing your talents and Urban Meyer has an offensive system that is tough for any team to defend. Urban Meyer is one of the best, if not the best, coach in the country. Give him a month to prepare with his talent and he can beat anyone. They do have 3 loses, but you pit them against any of the teams above on January 7th, he would beat any of them. I'm also willing to bet Vegas would have them favored against all the teams above, maybe except USC. Unlike Ohio State, their schedule was their enemy. LSU and Georgia are 2 of the top rated teams in the country and Auburn is no slouch.
Synopsis: USC and Florida are the 2 best teams in the country if there were a playoff.
Prediction: West Virginia will play Ohio State in the BCS title game by process of elimination. Ohio State will win the National Championship.
Alternative Scenario: West Virginia is almost a gimmee to win this week. If Mizzou happens to beat Oklahoma, I think West Virginia defeats Missouri in the title game.
Personal Thought: I hope West Virginia wins the National Championship. What do the people of West Virginia have to hang its head high on? I can't think of anything. It would be great for the state and a great story for college football. I couldn't respect Ohio State if they won it. They backdoored their way in by playing a pathetic non-conference schedule and a weak Big 10. I think the Big 10 needs to under go some changes to make it more fair for other conferences. Why is it on a 12 game schedule, every Big 10 team doesn't play each other? They have no Conference title game and their teams get done with the season before everyone else. I think it would also be a great story if Mizzou won the National Title, but it would be one of those 'who cares'. They weren't hyped up, they don't have passionate fans like WVU or OSU, and I'm sure not many people have seen them play at all not only this year, but in their lifetime.
LSU - Everyone has said they were consistently the best team in the country this year and some still think so. I think the talent is there, but not the coaching. I think Les Miles is very over-rated as a head coach. Over the past few years, I've seen a lot of bad coaching decisions. Their Kentucky loss, they ran the ball on 4th and 2 to end the game. In that situation, you have to throw, or use your mobile QB for a drop back and perhaps scramble if he sees and opening. Flynn is not a scrambler so obviously a pass should have been called for. Handing off for an off-tackle run was a terrible call. There were a lot of questionable calls in the Arkansas game. They got very lucky in the Auburn game. Even though it turned out good for them, how could you make that call to pass for a TD with very little time left when a short FG would have won it?
Georgia - Everyone thinks this team is one of the hottest in the country. I cannot give credit to a team that loses to a 6-6 South Carolina team at home and gets blown out to an average Tennessee team. They did beat Florida, but wild and crazy things happen in rivalries. Bowl games are not rivalries.
Ohio State - Who have they played? Scheduled 3 non-conference patsies. The NCAA went from an 11 to a 12 game schedule last year and every team had the opportunity to schedue the 12th game. They chose to schedule a patsy rather than a major conference game. Granted, they did schedule Texas the previous 2 years. Heck, I would even give them more credit if they scheduled some team like NC State like they did a few years ago, even though NC State is down. The Big 10 is very weak this year. In the SEC or Pac 10, this is a 2-3 loss team. I think the chips will fall their way to get into the big game. I do like them if they play West Virginia in the title game.
West Virginia - Big East is subpar at best. Maybe a tad stronger than the Big 10. I do give them credit for trying to schedule non-conference games from another major conference (Maryland and Miss. State). I know there are always politics involved in matching major conferences against each other. Especially when one school may seat 80,000 while another school only seats 40,000. I just don't trust West Virginia. They've never won a big game and there have been more letdowns than positives from their program. Losing to South Florida this year along with their 5-6 turnovers in that game. Same thing last year. When everything is there for the taking, somehow they let you down. I think they will beat Pitt this week and move onto the National Title game. If they play Ohio State, I think Ohio State will beat them. Ohio State's coaching and experience in big games is a big plus for them. If they play Mizzou in the National Title game, I think they can win against them for the fact Mizzou doesn't have the experience either and talent wins out.
Missouri - They have to beat Oklahoma to get to the National Title game. Oklahoma beat them 41-31 earlier this year. I see much the same in the Big 12 Championship this week, unless something freaky happens like OK's QB gets hurt. They looked good against Kansas, but neither is a top 5 team. I didn't really see a lot of speed and great athletes like you see with Florida, LSU, or USC. If they do make it to the National Title game against WVU or Ohio State, they lose.
Oklahoma - Earlier in the year, I thought Oklahoma and LSU were the 2 best teams in the country. I changed my mind on Oklahoma after their loss to Texas Tech. Their offense looked lost after their QB got hurt. I know a lot of teams would be lost without their QB, but a top tier team has to have other playmakers willing to step up, which I did not see. This team has a lot of youth balanced in. I think Oklahoma and Florida will be the top 2 teams in the country next year though.
USC - When healthy, this team is the best team in the country. USC has been known for their offense the past few years, but their defensive line is NFL caliber. Watching them against ASU on Thanksgiving night was watching men amongst boys. They did lose to a terrible Stanford team. For that reason, they don't deserve to be in the National Title game even if they would have had 1 loss. However, give this team a month to prepare and get healthy, they are one of the top 2 teams in the country.
Florida - Tim Tebow is the best college QB in the country bar none. It's not fair to compare NFL caliber QB's like Matt Ryan and Woodson to him. College football is all about maximizing your talents and Urban Meyer has an offensive system that is tough for any team to defend. Urban Meyer is one of the best, if not the best, coach in the country. Give him a month to prepare with his talent and he can beat anyone. They do have 3 loses, but you pit them against any of the teams above on January 7th, he would beat any of them. I'm also willing to bet Vegas would have them favored against all the teams above, maybe except USC. Unlike Ohio State, their schedule was their enemy. LSU and Georgia are 2 of the top rated teams in the country and Auburn is no slouch.
Synopsis: USC and Florida are the 2 best teams in the country if there were a playoff.
Prediction: West Virginia will play Ohio State in the BCS title game by process of elimination. Ohio State will win the National Championship.
Alternative Scenario: West Virginia is almost a gimmee to win this week. If Mizzou happens to beat Oklahoma, I think West Virginia defeats Missouri in the title game.
Personal Thought: I hope West Virginia wins the National Championship. What do the people of West Virginia have to hang its head high on? I can't think of anything. It would be great for the state and a great story for college football. I couldn't respect Ohio State if they won it. They backdoored their way in by playing a pathetic non-conference schedule and a weak Big 10. I think the Big 10 needs to under go some changes to make it more fair for other conferences. Why is it on a 12 game schedule, every Big 10 team doesn't play each other? They have no Conference title game and their teams get done with the season before everyone else. I think it would also be a great story if Mizzou won the National Title, but it would be one of those 'who cares'. They weren't hyped up, they don't have passionate fans like WVU or OSU, and I'm sure not many people have seen them play at all not only this year, but in their lifetime.
Introduction to Eddie Genius
I love reading other people's blogs and have many opinions in the world of Sports and Entertainment. I'm a sports fanatic and avid movie watcher. Follow some TV shows or reality shows on occasion. On my blog, I will give my opinions on the world of College Football, College Basketball, NFL, NBA, and MLB. Also, I will give out some of my sports handicapping picks. I hope to give my opinions on some of the big games and see how I stack up against the so-called 'expert' handicappers. I play a lot of Fantasy Football, so I will give my weekly opinions even though we are close to the end of the season.
Background: Georgia Tech graduate. Currently live in Charlotte, NC (8 years). Grew up and spent most of my life in Georgia. Sports Allegiances: Georgia Tech (of course), Atlanta Braves, Carolina Panthers, Charlotte Bobcats. Grew up with the Atlanta Falcons and Atlanta Hawks and would probably jump back on their bandwagon if they ever became good, but now rooting for my transplanted hometown teams.
That's it for now. Check back later. I hope to post a few times a week.
Background: Georgia Tech graduate. Currently live in Charlotte, NC (8 years). Grew up and spent most of my life in Georgia. Sports Allegiances: Georgia Tech (of course), Atlanta Braves, Carolina Panthers, Charlotte Bobcats. Grew up with the Atlanta Falcons and Atlanta Hawks and would probably jump back on their bandwagon if they ever became good, but now rooting for my transplanted hometown teams.
That's it for now. Check back later. I hope to post a few times a week.
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