College - Ohio State struggled against lowly Ohio. Classic case of looking ahead. Now it seems all of sudden everyone is predicting they have no chance against USC. With Beanie Wells most likely out, it's going to be even tougher now. I think they still have a good chance. They still have a great defense and Tressel is one of the best coaches in the country. Ohio State will be ready.
East Carolina pulled off the upset of WVU. My upset prediction came through. ECU has a good chance to run the table. The bigger question will be which big time program will Skip Holtz be coaching next year?
Pro - Of course the big news is Tom Brady's injury. Very unfortunate. Hate to see that happen to anyone, especially the caliber of player Brady is. This leaves the AFC wide open now. Matt Cassel is not going to be able to lead this team to the promiseland. Belichick's stubborness of not having a veteran backup comes back an bite him. Everyone now is jumping aboard the Steeler's bandwagon after one game. Jacksonville was my #2 team in the AFC before Brady's injury, so I will now elevate them to #1 in the AFC. Yes, they lost this past Sunday, but it was a road rivalry game. The Cowboys are now the Super Bowl favorites and rightfully so.
Carolina Panthers - Tremendous victory for the Panthers over the weekend. Probably the the 4th best victory in franchise history (1 - Defeated Eagles to go to Super Bowl. 2 - Defeated Rams in OT to get to NFC Championship game. 3 - Defeated Cowboys at home in 1997 to reach NFC Title game). The Panthers are going to be force in the NFC if they can stay healthy. I saw some inefficiencies such as poor red zone offense and poor play calling, but nothing that can't be fixed. Steve Smith back in week 3. Jonathan Stewart and Jeff Otah has greatly improved this team. The defense isn't a force like it once was, but they are playing as a unit and have a lot of versatility with their players and schemes.
Showing posts with label Tom Brady. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Tom Brady. Show all posts
Thursday, September 11, 2008
Thursday, November 29, 2007
Fantasy Football Blog - 11/29/07
You can call me a Fantasy Football junkie. I'm in 7 money leagues. Yes, I know that is a lot. I really didn't mean to join that many leagues this year, but friends kept calling me the last minute if I'd join. Also, some of the leagues did different things, which made it more challenging (Auction, Pts per Reception, TD based). Drafting takes up the most time, but after that, there really isn't much difference than having 2-3 teams and having 7 teams. By the time I was drafting team 6-7, I could recite the draft by heart. You're already online, it takes no time at all to update your team, and keeping track of players is easy with as much time I spend watching football or Sportscenter. Luckily, I am still eligible to cash in all 7 leagues. The 2 teams I'm doing the worse are thankfully the leagues that have a 'toilet' bowl. That is where the bottom tier teams compete for a small prize to prevent tanking at the end of the season. In 3 of the leagues, I'm in 1st place and the league with the biggest 1st place prize (4 figures); I've got the best record.
Myth: Take RB's early in your draft. Most every fantasy website and publication emphasizes take RBs early in your draft. The claim is the variation between top tier and 2nd tier is greater than any of the other positions. Most of this year's draft went like this: 1 - LT, 2 - S Jackson, 3 - J. Addai, 4 -Gore, 5 - LJ, 6 - Alexander. Look at that list and there is no one fearful on that list. Addai is probably the only one that may be earning his keep, but he's missed a game or 2. You can't even fear LT anymore. I had the luxury to draft LT in 2 of my leagues. One of the leagues, I will be hoping to win the toilet bowl. The other, I'm about 3rd or 4th due to smarter drafting, AP, MB III, Jacobs, C. Taylor. LT is not a dud, but nowhere near expectations of past seasons where he could single handedly carry a Fantasy team.
Draft Strategy: In my drafts, my strategy has always been go with my instinct by targeting certain players early, draft based on your league type, the player's schedule, and try to get a premier QB on your team. My QB logic is against the advice of most of the Fantasy publications. I find it a relief that I can count on the points from by QB week in and week out. Except for the 2 teams I had LT, I drafted from the middle to the end of the 1st round and targeted Peyton Manning on all those teams. I didn't trust the likes of Rudi, Bush, or Maroney who were options at the time. Willie Parker was also a target but a quite a few owners did their homework and took him early over the likes of Alexander and LJ. I had the gut feeling that Gore, LJ, and Alexander would be duds this year. LJ has no QB help, Gore much the same and a tough schedule, Alexander has been on the decline the past few years. S. Jackson surprised me on being a dud. He lost 2 of his offensive linemen the 1st week and got injured early in the season and missed several weeks. I was just lucky I didn't have the 2nd pick in any draft where I would have had to draft him. Several leagues I'm in, you can start 2 RB - 3 WR, instead of the classic 2 RB - 2 WR league. The 3 WR league, I will make sure I get a stud WR and often not draft my RB until the 4th round because I will draft WR 2 of the first 3 rounds with the QB being the other pick. I have to count on my research of who is undervalued and scour religiously on the waiver wire during the season. After all, you see more RB's injured than any position and there is usually always someone out there to carry the load week-to-week as the 1st rounders. I also make sure I overdraft RB's hoping to find those 2 sleepers. In my Big Money league, I was able to grab Ronnie Brown and MB III, who both put up 1st round #'s. Unfortunately Brown's injury hurt my teams as he was the #1 RB when he got injured, but I'm surviving through the waiver wire. I seem to always have one of the top, if not the top, WR corp in the league. After all, the NFL's rules are more designed for the passing game nowadays.
The Tom Brady Effect: Tom Brady by far has been the most superior fantasy football stud this year. Whoever was lucky or smart enough to snag him, most likely in the 2nd round, has to be loving life. I would say all but 1 of my leagues does the person that has Tom Brady is in the upper tier of the league in the standings. Surprisingly, I do not have Tom Brady on any of my teams. It seems almost every year, there is that 1 Fantasy stud that shoots a team to the top, no matter how average the rest of their team is. Last year it was LT, years before it was Peyton Manning, Larry Johnson, Priest Holmes. For you avid Fantasy Football owners, you know it all depends on how your stud(s) perform during Fantasy Playoffs. Twice, I've had teams that dominated the regular season with like only 1 loss, and get bounced in the 1st round due to studs turning to duds (Culpepper, Alexander in their prime), or freakish things happening like those waiver wire miracles (Drew Bennett and Billy Volek a few years ago). For most leagues, Fantasy Playoffs start next week. I am very hopeful I do not meet the owner that has Tom Brady until the Finals (If I make it). You're looking at Brady against the Jets and Dolphins during the semis and finals. Brady could be looking at 6-7 TDs those games. I'm just hoping Belichick spends those weeks trying to develop a run game.
The Perfect Draft and Updated Fantasy Rankings: There were 2 routes in drafting the perfect fantasy team this year, each involving drafting Brady or Romo. This is based on your drafts scenario assuming your draft followed like most leagues where players should have been drafted according to preseason rankings. No one would have draft Brady #1 before the season started. The 1st route obviously was getting Brady. The perfect scenario was probably drafting Brian Westbrook with the 6 or 7 pick and taking Brady on the comeback in the 2nd round, the 3rd round taking Randy Moss, the 4th round take MB III, or AP. The 2nd route was taking LT, Addai, Westbrook, or Parker depending where you drafted in the 1st round. Take a stud WR like TO, Chad Johnson, or Wayne in the 2nd round. 3rd round take Plaxico, Fitzgerald, Ronnie Brown, or Randy Moss. 4th round take Gates, MB III or AP. Then get Romo in the 5th or 6th round. If your draft followed only 2-3 of those picks in either scenario, you're likely at the top of your league.
If you could do your fantasy draft again before the season started based on what you know now, these are my rankings:
1 - Brady, 2 - Romo, 3 - Moss, 4 - LT, 5 - Westbrook, 6 - Adrian Peterson, 7 - Favre, 8 - TO, 9 - Addai, 10 - Peyton Manning. AP could be moved up, but with his running style, he's bound for an injury once a year. Peyton may be a reach at 10 this year, but he's been consistent with 250 + yards/game and 2 TDs a game. I would take that consistency over someone like Palmer who may have that 300+, 3-4 TD game and come back with a sub 200, 1 TD, 2-3 int game. The total points may be higher, but consistency counts more you're playing week-to-week. I believe Manning's only had 1 bad week this season. Injuries change things a lot. There will be those duds that turns into studs during playoffs and those players elevated more in the game plan due to injuries. With Fantasy playoffs coming up, you have to hope these studs don't turn to duds. If I had to pick who might, I'd pick Westbrook and Favre. Westbrook seems banged up every week, so you better have Buckhalter on your roster. I have a feeling he will miss a game in the coming weeks. Also, Favre may not put up the numbers in coming weeks. They are playing porous Run D's the next 2 weeks and who knows what the weather will be like when they play Chicago.
Pick for Tonight:
Dallas -7 Favre is 0 fer in Dallas. Lots of injuries (KGB and Woodson). Woodson hurts them the most.
Later tonight, I will have my College and Pro Football picks for the weekend.
Myth: Take RB's early in your draft. Most every fantasy website and publication emphasizes take RBs early in your draft. The claim is the variation between top tier and 2nd tier is greater than any of the other positions. Most of this year's draft went like this: 1 - LT, 2 - S Jackson, 3 - J. Addai, 4 -Gore, 5 - LJ, 6 - Alexander. Look at that list and there is no one fearful on that list. Addai is probably the only one that may be earning his keep, but he's missed a game or 2. You can't even fear LT anymore. I had the luxury to draft LT in 2 of my leagues. One of the leagues, I will be hoping to win the toilet bowl. The other, I'm about 3rd or 4th due to smarter drafting, AP, MB III, Jacobs, C. Taylor. LT is not a dud, but nowhere near expectations of past seasons where he could single handedly carry a Fantasy team.
Draft Strategy: In my drafts, my strategy has always been go with my instinct by targeting certain players early, draft based on your league type, the player's schedule, and try to get a premier QB on your team. My QB logic is against the advice of most of the Fantasy publications. I find it a relief that I can count on the points from by QB week in and week out. Except for the 2 teams I had LT, I drafted from the middle to the end of the 1st round and targeted Peyton Manning on all those teams. I didn't trust the likes of Rudi, Bush, or Maroney who were options at the time. Willie Parker was also a target but a quite a few owners did their homework and took him early over the likes of Alexander and LJ. I had the gut feeling that Gore, LJ, and Alexander would be duds this year. LJ has no QB help, Gore much the same and a tough schedule, Alexander has been on the decline the past few years. S. Jackson surprised me on being a dud. He lost 2 of his offensive linemen the 1st week and got injured early in the season and missed several weeks. I was just lucky I didn't have the 2nd pick in any draft where I would have had to draft him. Several leagues I'm in, you can start 2 RB - 3 WR, instead of the classic 2 RB - 2 WR league. The 3 WR league, I will make sure I get a stud WR and often not draft my RB until the 4th round because I will draft WR 2 of the first 3 rounds with the QB being the other pick. I have to count on my research of who is undervalued and scour religiously on the waiver wire during the season. After all, you see more RB's injured than any position and there is usually always someone out there to carry the load week-to-week as the 1st rounders. I also make sure I overdraft RB's hoping to find those 2 sleepers. In my Big Money league, I was able to grab Ronnie Brown and MB III, who both put up 1st round #'s. Unfortunately Brown's injury hurt my teams as he was the #1 RB when he got injured, but I'm surviving through the waiver wire. I seem to always have one of the top, if not the top, WR corp in the league. After all, the NFL's rules are more designed for the passing game nowadays.
The Tom Brady Effect: Tom Brady by far has been the most superior fantasy football stud this year. Whoever was lucky or smart enough to snag him, most likely in the 2nd round, has to be loving life. I would say all but 1 of my leagues does the person that has Tom Brady is in the upper tier of the league in the standings. Surprisingly, I do not have Tom Brady on any of my teams. It seems almost every year, there is that 1 Fantasy stud that shoots a team to the top, no matter how average the rest of their team is. Last year it was LT, years before it was Peyton Manning, Larry Johnson, Priest Holmes. For you avid Fantasy Football owners, you know it all depends on how your stud(s) perform during Fantasy Playoffs. Twice, I've had teams that dominated the regular season with like only 1 loss, and get bounced in the 1st round due to studs turning to duds (Culpepper, Alexander in their prime), or freakish things happening like those waiver wire miracles (Drew Bennett and Billy Volek a few years ago). For most leagues, Fantasy Playoffs start next week. I am very hopeful I do not meet the owner that has Tom Brady until the Finals (If I make it). You're looking at Brady against the Jets and Dolphins during the semis and finals. Brady could be looking at 6-7 TDs those games. I'm just hoping Belichick spends those weeks trying to develop a run game.
The Perfect Draft and Updated Fantasy Rankings: There were 2 routes in drafting the perfect fantasy team this year, each involving drafting Brady or Romo. This is based on your drafts scenario assuming your draft followed like most leagues where players should have been drafted according to preseason rankings. No one would have draft Brady #1 before the season started. The 1st route obviously was getting Brady. The perfect scenario was probably drafting Brian Westbrook with the 6 or 7 pick and taking Brady on the comeback in the 2nd round, the 3rd round taking Randy Moss, the 4th round take MB III, or AP. The 2nd route was taking LT, Addai, Westbrook, or Parker depending where you drafted in the 1st round. Take a stud WR like TO, Chad Johnson, or Wayne in the 2nd round. 3rd round take Plaxico, Fitzgerald, Ronnie Brown, or Randy Moss. 4th round take Gates, MB III or AP. Then get Romo in the 5th or 6th round. If your draft followed only 2-3 of those picks in either scenario, you're likely at the top of your league.
If you could do your fantasy draft again before the season started based on what you know now, these are my rankings:
1 - Brady, 2 - Romo, 3 - Moss, 4 - LT, 5 - Westbrook, 6 - Adrian Peterson, 7 - Favre, 8 - TO, 9 - Addai, 10 - Peyton Manning. AP could be moved up, but with his running style, he's bound for an injury once a year. Peyton may be a reach at 10 this year, but he's been consistent with 250 + yards/game and 2 TDs a game. I would take that consistency over someone like Palmer who may have that 300+, 3-4 TD game and come back with a sub 200, 1 TD, 2-3 int game. The total points may be higher, but consistency counts more you're playing week-to-week. I believe Manning's only had 1 bad week this season. Injuries change things a lot. There will be those duds that turns into studs during playoffs and those players elevated more in the game plan due to injuries. With Fantasy playoffs coming up, you have to hope these studs don't turn to duds. If I had to pick who might, I'd pick Westbrook and Favre. Westbrook seems banged up every week, so you better have Buckhalter on your roster. I have a feeling he will miss a game in the coming weeks. Also, Favre may not put up the numbers in coming weeks. They are playing porous Run D's the next 2 weeks and who knows what the weather will be like when they play Chicago.
Pick for Tonight:
Dallas -7 Favre is 0 fer in Dallas. Lots of injuries (KGB and Woodson). Woodson hurts them the most.
Later tonight, I will have my College and Pro Football picks for the weekend.
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