It's almost time for fantasy football. The first thing is the fantasy draft. I'm in like 6 leagues. How will I keep up with them with a baby on the way? I don't know, but we will see. Of course you should draft base on your league scoring and settings. My rankings are your basic rankings.
A lot of publications have their fantasy rankings now. I have my own set of rankings. I think this year will be one of the toughest years to draft. I don't think you should follow fantasy rule #1, which is value RB's the most. There are too many mediocre backs and teams are starting to use the 2 back system wisely. This is my philosophy and I almost always profit in my fantasy leagues with this philosophy. I'd rather have QB's or WR that I know will put up numbers than have RB's that could potentially put up great numbers, but have lots of question marks.
I'm only going to rank my Top 24 players. That should get you through the 1st 2 rounds.
1. LaDainian Tomlinson - Still #1, although not by the wide margin he's been in years past. Also, not 100% confident he will be one of the top players at the end of the season. Injuries may finally catch up to him this year.
2. Adrian Peterson - Potential to put up monster numbers. Showed last year how explosive he could be. However, his running style is prone for an injury. If you're in a keeper league, I would rank AP ahead of LT. Otherwise, I'm comfortable ranking LT then AP.
3. Brian Westbrook - Finally had a healthy year last year and his fantasy numbers showed it. A very versatile back. May not have the rushing numbers LT and AP has, but will boost his numbers in the West Coast offense with lots of receiving yards.
4. Tom Brady - Put up monster numbers last year. Probably one of the greatest QB numbers of all time. He carried a lot of fantasy teams by himself last year. Probably won't have the numbers like last year, but should still put up great numbers. Patriots play in a weak division, still has lots of weapons, and the Pats may have more to proove with their Super Bowl loss last year.
5. Joseph Addai - This is where I see the first slight drop off in player value. I like Addai and his production but he's also suffered injuries some. Also, it seems the Colts defense has gotten a lot more conservative the past few years. However, with Peyton Manning as his QB, his still one of the most dangerous back.
6. Tony Romo - This is where my philosophy probably doesn't coincide with the experts or differ from the expert fantasy sites. Romo put up monster numbers some games and carried a lot of teams last year. Unlike Brady, Romo was probably drafted rounds 4-6 last year and owners got lots of value because he definitely had 1st round numbers. He still has all of his weapons and it helps when your offensive coordinator has the freedom to call whatever he wants and is a former QB.
7. Steven Jackson - Even if he wasn't holding out right now, I would still have him ranked at this position. A lot of boards has him 4th or 5th. My concern with SJax is his weak offensive line. Also, Bulger seems to be on the decline. I like the way SJax plays. I can see him getting the yards, however, I don't see the TD's from him to boost his value.
8. Marion Barber III - Finally he is a #1 back, and about 2 years too late. He's always been a TD beast. However, the Cowboys philosophy is to split carries. Case in point with them drafting Felix Jones in the 1st round.
9. Peyton Manning - His surgery in the off-season had no effect on my ranking with him. Like I said earlier, it seems the Colts offense has gotten more conservative. Marvin Harrison is on the decline. Colts defense is good now, so they don't need their offense to put up big numbers. His consistency is too good to pass up at this position.
10. Randy Moss - He's really come full circle. Just when you think he's done, he comes back. Much thanks to Tom Brady though. He had outstanding numbers last year. I don't think he will match it this year, but the Brady-Moss combo is the most lethal combo in the NFL.
11. Terrell Owens - The Romo-TO combo is the 2nd best combo in the NFL. The league has gotten pass happy and the rules are more geared towards the passing game nowadays. Having Randy Moss and TO ranked this high is probably not the classic philosophy.
12. Larry Johnson - This point of the draft is the toughest part to rank. There a lot of RB's that you could potentially rank at this spot. Draw picks 12 thru 15 in a hat and you would probably have as much skill as ranking yourself. I put LJ at this spot because I think an early nagging injury kept his production down last year. He should be 100% this year and we could perhaps see the LJ of old and get value at this spot. Even though KC still has QB problems, LJ is still the man in KC.
13. Clinton Portis - Portis is the anomaly back that you think is going to be a beast and have a monster year, but it never happens. He had the beast year in Denver and never came close to match it. The year he busted loose in Denver, he wasn't highly ranked. Seems every year since, owners draft him too high thinking he will do it again. Washington's scheme is very conservative and they've never been consistent at QB. This year may be a little different with Campbell giving them some stability.
14. Reggie Wayne - I have 3 QB's in the 1st round. Their #1 target each should be highly valued. Harrison seems to be on the decline. Wayne has been very consistent and even when he was #2 to Harrison, he put up #1 numbers. This slot is usually a 2nd round slot. If you drafted a QB or WR with your 1st round pick, I'd consider taking the next highest RB instead and sliding Wayne down. If you picked an RB with your 1st round pick, I think Wayne is the best pick here.
15. Frank Gore - I have Gore ranked a lot lower than most of the experts. He put up great numbers 2 years ago. Last year, he slipped a bit and was very inconsistent. This was mainly due to the inconsistent QB play. Mike Martz is there now, so maybe they will get more offensive consistency. However, consistency starts at QB.
16. Marshawn Lynch - As a rookie last year, he showed he had great potential. He was the main man in Buffalo early in the season, which is tough for a rookie. Let's see how he does knowing he will be the man this year. Buffalo at times show they can play with the big boys, but then they lose by 35 to the Patriots and practically give a game to the Giants last year. Cold weather backs are tough to rank as they usually slide in the 2nd half of the year.
17. Ryan Grant - Didn't get a lot of accolades last year, but earned the starting job. With Aaron Rodgers at QB now, he could see a lot of stacked lines. However, I think the Packers have too many great receiver for teams to do this. Grant will get his. I think at most all he will ever be is a 2nd round fantasy back.
18. Willis McGahee - Baltimore's pourous offense doesn't do McGahee justice. Put him on a good team, I think he's a first rounder. I am very wary to put him at this high. If you took an RB in the 1st round, I'd probably take a WR at this slot.
19. Braylon Edwards - Edwards showed he was a premier receiver last year. He always had been, he just need a QB to get him the ball.
20. TJ Houshmanzadeh - This is the year Housh surpasses Chad Johnson. I think Palmer and the Bengals realize Housh is the man and is tired of Chad Johnson's antics. Production wise, he has more yards per reception than CJ. With him getting more looks than CJ this year, I can see him being a top tier receiver in the league.
21. Andre Johnson - If AJ wouldn't have gotten hurt last year, he would have been a top 5 receiver last year. His points per game was up there. Matt Schaub gave them a little more consistent play at QB last year. Even when David Carr was there, he still put up decent numbers. We all know how awful Carr is.
22. Larry Fitzgerald - I know a lot of boards have Fitz ranked ahead of AJ, Housh, and maybe even Edwards. I just don't like the fact Arizona was talking about trading him in the off-season. Arizona is going more towards the conservative approach with their coach's Pittsburgh Steelers philosophy.
23. Jamal Lewis - He had been a bust for so many years, he finally had a comeback season last year. It's hard to trust drafting him. However, Cleveland has too many offensive weapons to not rank him here.
24. Maurice Jones Drew - If he can ever get the bulk of carries in Jacksonville, he can put up good numbers. He's always gotten a good number of TD's considering he doesn't get the bulk of carries. His size has always been the worry for everyone, but he plays hard and has a great attitude.
Here are the best of the rest which may not be ranked as high, but can potentially have the numbers:
Reggie Bush - More weapons in NO (Shockey) should mean more offensive numbers for that offense. Their schedule is not very tough either.
Drew Brees - See above with more weapons in NO.
Darren McFadden - May be worth overdrafting in a keeper league. Downside is Oakland is still in chaos.
Calvin Johnson - Receivers seem to break out in year 2. Why not take a flyer on the best rookie receiver from last year.
When my big money fantasy drafts, I'll will post my draft picks.
Showing posts with label Fantasy Football. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Fantasy Football. Show all posts
Tuesday, August 5, 2008
Thursday, November 29, 2007
Fantasy Football Blog - 11/29/07
You can call me a Fantasy Football junkie. I'm in 7 money leagues. Yes, I know that is a lot. I really didn't mean to join that many leagues this year, but friends kept calling me the last minute if I'd join. Also, some of the leagues did different things, which made it more challenging (Auction, Pts per Reception, TD based). Drafting takes up the most time, but after that, there really isn't much difference than having 2-3 teams and having 7 teams. By the time I was drafting team 6-7, I could recite the draft by heart. You're already online, it takes no time at all to update your team, and keeping track of players is easy with as much time I spend watching football or Sportscenter. Luckily, I am still eligible to cash in all 7 leagues. The 2 teams I'm doing the worse are thankfully the leagues that have a 'toilet' bowl. That is where the bottom tier teams compete for a small prize to prevent tanking at the end of the season. In 3 of the leagues, I'm in 1st place and the league with the biggest 1st place prize (4 figures); I've got the best record.
Myth: Take RB's early in your draft. Most every fantasy website and publication emphasizes take RBs early in your draft. The claim is the variation between top tier and 2nd tier is greater than any of the other positions. Most of this year's draft went like this: 1 - LT, 2 - S Jackson, 3 - J. Addai, 4 -Gore, 5 - LJ, 6 - Alexander. Look at that list and there is no one fearful on that list. Addai is probably the only one that may be earning his keep, but he's missed a game or 2. You can't even fear LT anymore. I had the luxury to draft LT in 2 of my leagues. One of the leagues, I will be hoping to win the toilet bowl. The other, I'm about 3rd or 4th due to smarter drafting, AP, MB III, Jacobs, C. Taylor. LT is not a dud, but nowhere near expectations of past seasons where he could single handedly carry a Fantasy team.
Draft Strategy: In my drafts, my strategy has always been go with my instinct by targeting certain players early, draft based on your league type, the player's schedule, and try to get a premier QB on your team. My QB logic is against the advice of most of the Fantasy publications. I find it a relief that I can count on the points from by QB week in and week out. Except for the 2 teams I had LT, I drafted from the middle to the end of the 1st round and targeted Peyton Manning on all those teams. I didn't trust the likes of Rudi, Bush, or Maroney who were options at the time. Willie Parker was also a target but a quite a few owners did their homework and took him early over the likes of Alexander and LJ. I had the gut feeling that Gore, LJ, and Alexander would be duds this year. LJ has no QB help, Gore much the same and a tough schedule, Alexander has been on the decline the past few years. S. Jackson surprised me on being a dud. He lost 2 of his offensive linemen the 1st week and got injured early in the season and missed several weeks. I was just lucky I didn't have the 2nd pick in any draft where I would have had to draft him. Several leagues I'm in, you can start 2 RB - 3 WR, instead of the classic 2 RB - 2 WR league. The 3 WR league, I will make sure I get a stud WR and often not draft my RB until the 4th round because I will draft WR 2 of the first 3 rounds with the QB being the other pick. I have to count on my research of who is undervalued and scour religiously on the waiver wire during the season. After all, you see more RB's injured than any position and there is usually always someone out there to carry the load week-to-week as the 1st rounders. I also make sure I overdraft RB's hoping to find those 2 sleepers. In my Big Money league, I was able to grab Ronnie Brown and MB III, who both put up 1st round #'s. Unfortunately Brown's injury hurt my teams as he was the #1 RB when he got injured, but I'm surviving through the waiver wire. I seem to always have one of the top, if not the top, WR corp in the league. After all, the NFL's rules are more designed for the passing game nowadays.
The Tom Brady Effect: Tom Brady by far has been the most superior fantasy football stud this year. Whoever was lucky or smart enough to snag him, most likely in the 2nd round, has to be loving life. I would say all but 1 of my leagues does the person that has Tom Brady is in the upper tier of the league in the standings. Surprisingly, I do not have Tom Brady on any of my teams. It seems almost every year, there is that 1 Fantasy stud that shoots a team to the top, no matter how average the rest of their team is. Last year it was LT, years before it was Peyton Manning, Larry Johnson, Priest Holmes. For you avid Fantasy Football owners, you know it all depends on how your stud(s) perform during Fantasy Playoffs. Twice, I've had teams that dominated the regular season with like only 1 loss, and get bounced in the 1st round due to studs turning to duds (Culpepper, Alexander in their prime), or freakish things happening like those waiver wire miracles (Drew Bennett and Billy Volek a few years ago). For most leagues, Fantasy Playoffs start next week. I am very hopeful I do not meet the owner that has Tom Brady until the Finals (If I make it). You're looking at Brady against the Jets and Dolphins during the semis and finals. Brady could be looking at 6-7 TDs those games. I'm just hoping Belichick spends those weeks trying to develop a run game.
The Perfect Draft and Updated Fantasy Rankings: There were 2 routes in drafting the perfect fantasy team this year, each involving drafting Brady or Romo. This is based on your drafts scenario assuming your draft followed like most leagues where players should have been drafted according to preseason rankings. No one would have draft Brady #1 before the season started. The 1st route obviously was getting Brady. The perfect scenario was probably drafting Brian Westbrook with the 6 or 7 pick and taking Brady on the comeback in the 2nd round, the 3rd round taking Randy Moss, the 4th round take MB III, or AP. The 2nd route was taking LT, Addai, Westbrook, or Parker depending where you drafted in the 1st round. Take a stud WR like TO, Chad Johnson, or Wayne in the 2nd round. 3rd round take Plaxico, Fitzgerald, Ronnie Brown, or Randy Moss. 4th round take Gates, MB III or AP. Then get Romo in the 5th or 6th round. If your draft followed only 2-3 of those picks in either scenario, you're likely at the top of your league.
If you could do your fantasy draft again before the season started based on what you know now, these are my rankings:
1 - Brady, 2 - Romo, 3 - Moss, 4 - LT, 5 - Westbrook, 6 - Adrian Peterson, 7 - Favre, 8 - TO, 9 - Addai, 10 - Peyton Manning. AP could be moved up, but with his running style, he's bound for an injury once a year. Peyton may be a reach at 10 this year, but he's been consistent with 250 + yards/game and 2 TDs a game. I would take that consistency over someone like Palmer who may have that 300+, 3-4 TD game and come back with a sub 200, 1 TD, 2-3 int game. The total points may be higher, but consistency counts more you're playing week-to-week. I believe Manning's only had 1 bad week this season. Injuries change things a lot. There will be those duds that turns into studs during playoffs and those players elevated more in the game plan due to injuries. With Fantasy playoffs coming up, you have to hope these studs don't turn to duds. If I had to pick who might, I'd pick Westbrook and Favre. Westbrook seems banged up every week, so you better have Buckhalter on your roster. I have a feeling he will miss a game in the coming weeks. Also, Favre may not put up the numbers in coming weeks. They are playing porous Run D's the next 2 weeks and who knows what the weather will be like when they play Chicago.
Pick for Tonight:
Dallas -7 Favre is 0 fer in Dallas. Lots of injuries (KGB and Woodson). Woodson hurts them the most.
Later tonight, I will have my College and Pro Football picks for the weekend.
Myth: Take RB's early in your draft. Most every fantasy website and publication emphasizes take RBs early in your draft. The claim is the variation between top tier and 2nd tier is greater than any of the other positions. Most of this year's draft went like this: 1 - LT, 2 - S Jackson, 3 - J. Addai, 4 -Gore, 5 - LJ, 6 - Alexander. Look at that list and there is no one fearful on that list. Addai is probably the only one that may be earning his keep, but he's missed a game or 2. You can't even fear LT anymore. I had the luxury to draft LT in 2 of my leagues. One of the leagues, I will be hoping to win the toilet bowl. The other, I'm about 3rd or 4th due to smarter drafting, AP, MB III, Jacobs, C. Taylor. LT is not a dud, but nowhere near expectations of past seasons where he could single handedly carry a Fantasy team.
Draft Strategy: In my drafts, my strategy has always been go with my instinct by targeting certain players early, draft based on your league type, the player's schedule, and try to get a premier QB on your team. My QB logic is against the advice of most of the Fantasy publications. I find it a relief that I can count on the points from by QB week in and week out. Except for the 2 teams I had LT, I drafted from the middle to the end of the 1st round and targeted Peyton Manning on all those teams. I didn't trust the likes of Rudi, Bush, or Maroney who were options at the time. Willie Parker was also a target but a quite a few owners did their homework and took him early over the likes of Alexander and LJ. I had the gut feeling that Gore, LJ, and Alexander would be duds this year. LJ has no QB help, Gore much the same and a tough schedule, Alexander has been on the decline the past few years. S. Jackson surprised me on being a dud. He lost 2 of his offensive linemen the 1st week and got injured early in the season and missed several weeks. I was just lucky I didn't have the 2nd pick in any draft where I would have had to draft him. Several leagues I'm in, you can start 2 RB - 3 WR, instead of the classic 2 RB - 2 WR league. The 3 WR league, I will make sure I get a stud WR and often not draft my RB until the 4th round because I will draft WR 2 of the first 3 rounds with the QB being the other pick. I have to count on my research of who is undervalued and scour religiously on the waiver wire during the season. After all, you see more RB's injured than any position and there is usually always someone out there to carry the load week-to-week as the 1st rounders. I also make sure I overdraft RB's hoping to find those 2 sleepers. In my Big Money league, I was able to grab Ronnie Brown and MB III, who both put up 1st round #'s. Unfortunately Brown's injury hurt my teams as he was the #1 RB when he got injured, but I'm surviving through the waiver wire. I seem to always have one of the top, if not the top, WR corp in the league. After all, the NFL's rules are more designed for the passing game nowadays.
The Tom Brady Effect: Tom Brady by far has been the most superior fantasy football stud this year. Whoever was lucky or smart enough to snag him, most likely in the 2nd round, has to be loving life. I would say all but 1 of my leagues does the person that has Tom Brady is in the upper tier of the league in the standings. Surprisingly, I do not have Tom Brady on any of my teams. It seems almost every year, there is that 1 Fantasy stud that shoots a team to the top, no matter how average the rest of their team is. Last year it was LT, years before it was Peyton Manning, Larry Johnson, Priest Holmes. For you avid Fantasy Football owners, you know it all depends on how your stud(s) perform during Fantasy Playoffs. Twice, I've had teams that dominated the regular season with like only 1 loss, and get bounced in the 1st round due to studs turning to duds (Culpepper, Alexander in their prime), or freakish things happening like those waiver wire miracles (Drew Bennett and Billy Volek a few years ago). For most leagues, Fantasy Playoffs start next week. I am very hopeful I do not meet the owner that has Tom Brady until the Finals (If I make it). You're looking at Brady against the Jets and Dolphins during the semis and finals. Brady could be looking at 6-7 TDs those games. I'm just hoping Belichick spends those weeks trying to develop a run game.
The Perfect Draft and Updated Fantasy Rankings: There were 2 routes in drafting the perfect fantasy team this year, each involving drafting Brady or Romo. This is based on your drafts scenario assuming your draft followed like most leagues where players should have been drafted according to preseason rankings. No one would have draft Brady #1 before the season started. The 1st route obviously was getting Brady. The perfect scenario was probably drafting Brian Westbrook with the 6 or 7 pick and taking Brady on the comeback in the 2nd round, the 3rd round taking Randy Moss, the 4th round take MB III, or AP. The 2nd route was taking LT, Addai, Westbrook, or Parker depending where you drafted in the 1st round. Take a stud WR like TO, Chad Johnson, or Wayne in the 2nd round. 3rd round take Plaxico, Fitzgerald, Ronnie Brown, or Randy Moss. 4th round take Gates, MB III or AP. Then get Romo in the 5th or 6th round. If your draft followed only 2-3 of those picks in either scenario, you're likely at the top of your league.
If you could do your fantasy draft again before the season started based on what you know now, these are my rankings:
1 - Brady, 2 - Romo, 3 - Moss, 4 - LT, 5 - Westbrook, 6 - Adrian Peterson, 7 - Favre, 8 - TO, 9 - Addai, 10 - Peyton Manning. AP could be moved up, but with his running style, he's bound for an injury once a year. Peyton may be a reach at 10 this year, but he's been consistent with 250 + yards/game and 2 TDs a game. I would take that consistency over someone like Palmer who may have that 300+, 3-4 TD game and come back with a sub 200, 1 TD, 2-3 int game. The total points may be higher, but consistency counts more you're playing week-to-week. I believe Manning's only had 1 bad week this season. Injuries change things a lot. There will be those duds that turns into studs during playoffs and those players elevated more in the game plan due to injuries. With Fantasy playoffs coming up, you have to hope these studs don't turn to duds. If I had to pick who might, I'd pick Westbrook and Favre. Westbrook seems banged up every week, so you better have Buckhalter on your roster. I have a feeling he will miss a game in the coming weeks. Also, Favre may not put up the numbers in coming weeks. They are playing porous Run D's the next 2 weeks and who knows what the weather will be like when they play Chicago.
Pick for Tonight:
Dallas -7 Favre is 0 fer in Dallas. Lots of injuries (KGB and Woodson). Woodson hurts them the most.
Later tonight, I will have my College and Pro Football picks for the weekend.
Tuesday, November 27, 2007
Introduction to Eddie Genius
I love reading other people's blogs and have many opinions in the world of Sports and Entertainment. I'm a sports fanatic and avid movie watcher. Follow some TV shows or reality shows on occasion. On my blog, I will give my opinions on the world of College Football, College Basketball, NFL, NBA, and MLB. Also, I will give out some of my sports handicapping picks. I hope to give my opinions on some of the big games and see how I stack up against the so-called 'expert' handicappers. I play a lot of Fantasy Football, so I will give my weekly opinions even though we are close to the end of the season.
Background: Georgia Tech graduate. Currently live in Charlotte, NC (8 years). Grew up and spent most of my life in Georgia. Sports Allegiances: Georgia Tech (of course), Atlanta Braves, Carolina Panthers, Charlotte Bobcats. Grew up with the Atlanta Falcons and Atlanta Hawks and would probably jump back on their bandwagon if they ever became good, but now rooting for my transplanted hometown teams.
That's it for now. Check back later. I hope to post a few times a week.
Background: Georgia Tech graduate. Currently live in Charlotte, NC (8 years). Grew up and spent most of my life in Georgia. Sports Allegiances: Georgia Tech (of course), Atlanta Braves, Carolina Panthers, Charlotte Bobcats. Grew up with the Atlanta Falcons and Atlanta Hawks and would probably jump back on their bandwagon if they ever became good, but now rooting for my transplanted hometown teams.
That's it for now. Check back later. I hope to post a few times a week.
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