It's almost time for fantasy football. The first thing is the fantasy draft. I'm in like 6 leagues. How will I keep up with them with a baby on the way? I don't know, but we will see. Of course you should draft base on your league scoring and settings. My rankings are your basic rankings.
A lot of publications have their fantasy rankings now. I have my own set of rankings. I think this year will be one of the toughest years to draft. I don't think you should follow fantasy rule #1, which is value RB's the most. There are too many mediocre backs and teams are starting to use the 2 back system wisely. This is my philosophy and I almost always profit in my fantasy leagues with this philosophy. I'd rather have QB's or WR that I know will put up numbers than have RB's that could potentially put up great numbers, but have lots of question marks.
I'm only going to rank my Top 24 players. That should get you through the 1st 2 rounds.
1. LaDainian Tomlinson - Still #1, although not by the wide margin he's been in years past. Also, not 100% confident he will be one of the top players at the end of the season. Injuries may finally catch up to him this year.
2. Adrian Peterson - Potential to put up monster numbers. Showed last year how explosive he could be. However, his running style is prone for an injury. If you're in a keeper league, I would rank AP ahead of LT. Otherwise, I'm comfortable ranking LT then AP.
3. Brian Westbrook - Finally had a healthy year last year and his fantasy numbers showed it. A very versatile back. May not have the rushing numbers LT and AP has, but will boost his numbers in the West Coast offense with lots of receiving yards.
4. Tom Brady - Put up monster numbers last year. Probably one of the greatest QB numbers of all time. He carried a lot of fantasy teams by himself last year. Probably won't have the numbers like last year, but should still put up great numbers. Patriots play in a weak division, still has lots of weapons, and the Pats may have more to proove with their Super Bowl loss last year.
5. Joseph Addai - This is where I see the first slight drop off in player value. I like Addai and his production but he's also suffered injuries some. Also, it seems the Colts defense has gotten a lot more conservative the past few years. However, with Peyton Manning as his QB, his still one of the most dangerous back.
6. Tony Romo - This is where my philosophy probably doesn't coincide with the experts or differ from the expert fantasy sites. Romo put up monster numbers some games and carried a lot of teams last year. Unlike Brady, Romo was probably drafted rounds 4-6 last year and owners got lots of value because he definitely had 1st round numbers. He still has all of his weapons and it helps when your offensive coordinator has the freedom to call whatever he wants and is a former QB.
7. Steven Jackson - Even if he wasn't holding out right now, I would still have him ranked at this position. A lot of boards has him 4th or 5th. My concern with SJax is his weak offensive line. Also, Bulger seems to be on the decline. I like the way SJax plays. I can see him getting the yards, however, I don't see the TD's from him to boost his value.
8. Marion Barber III - Finally he is a #1 back, and about 2 years too late. He's always been a TD beast. However, the Cowboys philosophy is to split carries. Case in point with them drafting Felix Jones in the 1st round.
9. Peyton Manning - His surgery in the off-season had no effect on my ranking with him. Like I said earlier, it seems the Colts offense has gotten more conservative. Marvin Harrison is on the decline. Colts defense is good now, so they don't need their offense to put up big numbers. His consistency is too good to pass up at this position.
10. Randy Moss - He's really come full circle. Just when you think he's done, he comes back. Much thanks to Tom Brady though. He had outstanding numbers last year. I don't think he will match it this year, but the Brady-Moss combo is the most lethal combo in the NFL.
11. Terrell Owens - The Romo-TO combo is the 2nd best combo in the NFL. The league has gotten pass happy and the rules are more geared towards the passing game nowadays. Having Randy Moss and TO ranked this high is probably not the classic philosophy.
12. Larry Johnson - This point of the draft is the toughest part to rank. There a lot of RB's that you could potentially rank at this spot. Draw picks 12 thru 15 in a hat and you would probably have as much skill as ranking yourself. I put LJ at this spot because I think an early nagging injury kept his production down last year. He should be 100% this year and we could perhaps see the LJ of old and get value at this spot. Even though KC still has QB problems, LJ is still the man in KC.
13. Clinton Portis - Portis is the anomaly back that you think is going to be a beast and have a monster year, but it never happens. He had the beast year in Denver and never came close to match it. The year he busted loose in Denver, he wasn't highly ranked. Seems every year since, owners draft him too high thinking he will do it again. Washington's scheme is very conservative and they've never been consistent at QB. This year may be a little different with Campbell giving them some stability.
14. Reggie Wayne - I have 3 QB's in the 1st round. Their #1 target each should be highly valued. Harrison seems to be on the decline. Wayne has been very consistent and even when he was #2 to Harrison, he put up #1 numbers. This slot is usually a 2nd round slot. If you drafted a QB or WR with your 1st round pick, I'd consider taking the next highest RB instead and sliding Wayne down. If you picked an RB with your 1st round pick, I think Wayne is the best pick here.
15. Frank Gore - I have Gore ranked a lot lower than most of the experts. He put up great numbers 2 years ago. Last year, he slipped a bit and was very inconsistent. This was mainly due to the inconsistent QB play. Mike Martz is there now, so maybe they will get more offensive consistency. However, consistency starts at QB.
16. Marshawn Lynch - As a rookie last year, he showed he had great potential. He was the main man in Buffalo early in the season, which is tough for a rookie. Let's see how he does knowing he will be the man this year. Buffalo at times show they can play with the big boys, but then they lose by 35 to the Patriots and practically give a game to the Giants last year. Cold weather backs are tough to rank as they usually slide in the 2nd half of the year.
17. Ryan Grant - Didn't get a lot of accolades last year, but earned the starting job. With Aaron Rodgers at QB now, he could see a lot of stacked lines. However, I think the Packers have too many great receiver for teams to do this. Grant will get his. I think at most all he will ever be is a 2nd round fantasy back.
18. Willis McGahee - Baltimore's pourous offense doesn't do McGahee justice. Put him on a good team, I think he's a first rounder. I am very wary to put him at this high. If you took an RB in the 1st round, I'd probably take a WR at this slot.
19. Braylon Edwards - Edwards showed he was a premier receiver last year. He always had been, he just need a QB to get him the ball.
20. TJ Houshmanzadeh - This is the year Housh surpasses Chad Johnson. I think Palmer and the Bengals realize Housh is the man and is tired of Chad Johnson's antics. Production wise, he has more yards per reception than CJ. With him getting more looks than CJ this year, I can see him being a top tier receiver in the league.
21. Andre Johnson - If AJ wouldn't have gotten hurt last year, he would have been a top 5 receiver last year. His points per game was up there. Matt Schaub gave them a little more consistent play at QB last year. Even when David Carr was there, he still put up decent numbers. We all know how awful Carr is.
22. Larry Fitzgerald - I know a lot of boards have Fitz ranked ahead of AJ, Housh, and maybe even Edwards. I just don't like the fact Arizona was talking about trading him in the off-season. Arizona is going more towards the conservative approach with their coach's Pittsburgh Steelers philosophy.
23. Jamal Lewis - He had been a bust for so many years, he finally had a comeback season last year. It's hard to trust drafting him. However, Cleveland has too many offensive weapons to not rank him here.
24. Maurice Jones Drew - If he can ever get the bulk of carries in Jacksonville, he can put up good numbers. He's always gotten a good number of TD's considering he doesn't get the bulk of carries. His size has always been the worry for everyone, but he plays hard and has a great attitude.
Here are the best of the rest which may not be ranked as high, but can potentially have the numbers:
Reggie Bush - More weapons in NO (Shockey) should mean more offensive numbers for that offense. Their schedule is not very tough either.
Drew Brees - See above with more weapons in NO.
Darren McFadden - May be worth overdrafting in a keeper league. Downside is Oakland is still in chaos.
Calvin Johnson - Receivers seem to break out in year 2. Why not take a flyer on the best rookie receiver from last year.
When my big money fantasy drafts, I'll will post my draft picks.
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1 comment:
Thanks a lot, This article really came through.
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