Big weekend for college football, especially if you are a fan of the SEC.
LSU vs Auburn - Auburn is coming off its thrilling 3-2 victory last weekend over lowly Mississippi State. LSU hasn't been tested this year. The winner of this game should win the SEC West. I like LSU in this contest. I'm hearing all this Auburn is tough at home, Tuberville is a good big game coach, and LSU hasn't been tested. Auburn's pathetic offense will haunt them this weekend. They still have QB issues. LSU did lose some good players from last year's National Championship team. However, I think they reloaded and will have just enough firepower to come out on top. Auburn has been exposed this year and LSU will take advantage of it. First one to 10 may win this game and it will be LSU.
Florida vs Tennessee - This is my favorite matchup this weekend. Tennessee was embarrassed last year at Florida. Tennessee is a great home team. Florida struggled offensively against Miami. I think they have some Offensive Line problems. However, they had an extra week to prepare and Tebow will lead this team. Coaching-wise, I will take Urban Meyer over Phillip Fulmer anyday. May be a field goal game, but I like Florida to win. This is Florida's toughest road game. They win this game, they have a great chance to run the table.
Georgia vs Arizona State - Both teams struggled last week. The difference is Georgia won, Arizona State didn't. I think it would have been a better setup game for Georgia if AZ State wouldn't have lost last week against lowly UNLV. Now Arizona State is desperate. Georgia should get it together offensively this week. Pac-10 is not known for their defense unless you are USC. I see a big game from Moreno this game. I hope Richt doesn't get too cute with his play calling this game. Just run Moreno down their throats. Max, Georgia will win by 7. Closer than I would have pick 2-3 weeks ago.
Notre Dame vs Michigan State - Notre Dame won big against Michigan last week. ND was the benefit of a lot of turnovers. The weather played a big part last week. Michigan State is a good team at home and always plays ND well at home. Notre Dame comes back to earth this week. Michigan State by double digits.
Mississippi State vs Georgia Tech - I like Georgia Tech is scheduling out of conference with power conferences. However, I would like to see them schedule bigger named schools. If you schedule Mississippi State or Vanderbilt out of conference, your kind of saying your school is on their level. I would like to think Georgia Tech is a step above Miss State. This game is a no win game for GT. Win the game, you're supposed to win, even if it is against an SEC team. The will get no respect for winning. Lose and will hear the lower tier SEC team beats a mid to upper tier ACC team. Only way GT comes out ahead in this game is if they win big. I think they can. Mississippi State is poor offensively. Hopefully GT gets their offense in tune this game.
VT vs UNC and Wake Forest vs FSU - Big ACC matchups this weekend. I like UNC over VT. VT is way over-rated. They have no receivers. Play containment on Taylor and you should win. Their receivers can't catch the ball. This could be a turning point for UNC if they win. I like FSU over Wake Forest. FSU was my preseason pick and I'm sticking with it. This is FSU's second year under Jimbo Fisher's offense. Plus, they didn't give the reigns to Weatherford this year and wisely so. If this game was in the middle of the season, I would like Wake more, but FSU will be pumped because this is their first big game of the season.
PRO FOOTBALL
Carolina Panthers vs Minnesota Vikings - Intersting game here. Panthers are 2-0 and Vikes are 0-2. Vikings are desperate now and made a change at QB. Minnesota has the best rushing defense in the league. The Panthers get Steve Smith back at the right time. The Steve Smith incident has brought this team closer together, not torn them apart. Everyone has said and did the right things since the incident. I like the Panthers to win in the air this week. I am worried that Adrian Peterson will run wild, because the Panthers have not looked good stopping the run either week.
UPSET PICKS
College - NC State over East Carolina. NC State historically has played well against ECU. They won at ECU last year late in the season. Usually its NC State favored in this game. The roles are reversed this year. ECU survived Tulane last week and lost a key defensive player for the season. This is technically a rivalry game and most years ECU considers this game as its statement game or big game of the year. ECU is looking for bigger things now and might look past this game.
Pro - Green Bay over Dallas. If this was a regular game, I would like Dallas. However, this is a primetime game on National TV. Green Bay is already a good team and they will be more pumped for this game. For Dallas, just another day at the office as they are used to primetime. I think Dallas exhausted a lot of energy from their MNF game with Philly. Also, Dallas goes from turf to grass this game and the game won't be as fast offensively and good for GB defensively.
Friday, September 19, 2008
Thursday, September 18, 2008
Men of Troy, Cardiac Cats
What was I thinking? How could I have ever thought Ohio State could keep it close with USC? The reason I thought the way I did is, Ohio State was returning 20 of 22 starters from a team that reached the BCS Title game last year. However, deeper thinking would have made me realize Ohio State was very over-rated last year and back doored their way into the game rather than earning it. I thought they were very over-rated last year. They lack the speed and athletes of the SEC and USC. Keeping the same over-rated players from last year won't close the gap against the SECs and USCs of the world. I agree with the general public and experts. USC is by far the best team in the country. The only other team that has shown something is Oklahoma. However, I don't won't to see a USC-Oklahoma BCS title game, even though that what it looks like we are headed. I want to see USC vs an SEC team. Oklahoma got manhandled by USC years ago and Oklahoma has played poorly in BCS bowls the past few years.
I was half right with most of my predictions last week. I'm 2 for 2 in upsets in College Football so far. Maryland, a 14 point underdog last week, beat Cal. I hope from here out, when a West Coast or Pac-10 teams plays on the East Coast, they shouldn't agree on a 12 Noon start. I picked most of the winners, but not by the margins I predicted. Georgia struggled against South Carolina, Panthers had a tough time with the Bears, but a win is a win.
Georgia survived South Carolina. They probably should have lost the game. Unbelievable how many times South Carolina shot themselves in the foot. Does this mean the Georgia Bulldogs are over-rated? Probably not. South Carolina always plays Georgia tough. We'll get more of an idea if Georgia is for real this weekend against Arizona State.
Georgia Tech lost a close one to Virginia Tech. They probably should have won the game, but didn't. Virginia Tech still doesn't impress me at all. I'm a little worried about Georgia Tech though. Georgia Tech's defense is keeping them in games. I'm not sure if Paul Johnson's offense can survive against the big boys. Also, this is not the type of offense to have when you're playing from behind. Luckily, there are no big boys in the ACC. Hopefully it's the learning curve that is causing GT's offense to sputter.
The Carolina Panther, aka the Cardiac Cats, are back at it. They looked awful the 1st half on Sunday. However, the defense kept them in the game. Luckily, Chicago is not very good offensively. I think Chicago is better than most thought. Their win over Indy is not fluke and Matt Forte looks like he can carry the workload. He's a big, strong RB. He's the real deal. On the other side, Jonathan Stewart showed why the Panthers were so high on him. If he can stay healthy, he will be one of the best RBs in the NFL. Interesting they are playing Minnesota this week. Stewart and Peterson are very similar, a combination of speed and power. Stewart can and will be at Adrian Peterson's level next year if he can stay healthy. Another key is the Panthers re-built offensive line is good. Looks like the gamble with Otah on draft day will pay off. He's still a little raw, but will only get better.
What a Monday Night game. Definitely one of the best Monday Night games in a long time. I was more impressed with the Eagles than with the Cowboys. I was wrong about my assessment of the Eagles and McNabb. McNabb has looked as good as he's ever been. These are the 2 best teams in the NFC. Yes, better than the Packers and Giants. Packers are good, but not great. The Giants injuries and the loss of Osi and Strahan will eventually catch up to them. I wouldn't be surprised if Dallas chokes again this year. I just think they are not committing to the run like they should. They need to go to a more consistent ball control offense rather than a gun-slinging style offense. They will put their defense into too many holes with quick series and high turnovers. The Giants played the perfect style last year. Ball control, consistent, commit to the run, etc. Even the year the Colts won the Super Bowl, they didn't get into the high scoring shootouts they were accustomed to in previous years.
Just a quick comment on the Denver-San Diego game. San Diego got jobbed. If the ref wanted to make up for it, he should have called a holding penalty or something the next play against Denver. There is such a thing as a make-up call. Just shows you the ref cared more about his ego than doing the right thing. I've ref'd football and basketball before. You can practically make a case for holding almost every play in the NFL, just like you can practically call a foul almost every play in basketball.
I was half right with most of my predictions last week. I'm 2 for 2 in upsets in College Football so far. Maryland, a 14 point underdog last week, beat Cal. I hope from here out, when a West Coast or Pac-10 teams plays on the East Coast, they shouldn't agree on a 12 Noon start. I picked most of the winners, but not by the margins I predicted. Georgia struggled against South Carolina, Panthers had a tough time with the Bears, but a win is a win.
Georgia survived South Carolina. They probably should have lost the game. Unbelievable how many times South Carolina shot themselves in the foot. Does this mean the Georgia Bulldogs are over-rated? Probably not. South Carolina always plays Georgia tough. We'll get more of an idea if Georgia is for real this weekend against Arizona State.
Georgia Tech lost a close one to Virginia Tech. They probably should have won the game, but didn't. Virginia Tech still doesn't impress me at all. I'm a little worried about Georgia Tech though. Georgia Tech's defense is keeping them in games. I'm not sure if Paul Johnson's offense can survive against the big boys. Also, this is not the type of offense to have when you're playing from behind. Luckily, there are no big boys in the ACC. Hopefully it's the learning curve that is causing GT's offense to sputter.
The Carolina Panther, aka the Cardiac Cats, are back at it. They looked awful the 1st half on Sunday. However, the defense kept them in the game. Luckily, Chicago is not very good offensively. I think Chicago is better than most thought. Their win over Indy is not fluke and Matt Forte looks like he can carry the workload. He's a big, strong RB. He's the real deal. On the other side, Jonathan Stewart showed why the Panthers were so high on him. If he can stay healthy, he will be one of the best RBs in the NFL. Interesting they are playing Minnesota this week. Stewart and Peterson are very similar, a combination of speed and power. Stewart can and will be at Adrian Peterson's level next year if he can stay healthy. Another key is the Panthers re-built offensive line is good. Looks like the gamble with Otah on draft day will pay off. He's still a little raw, but will only get better.
What a Monday Night game. Definitely one of the best Monday Night games in a long time. I was more impressed with the Eagles than with the Cowboys. I was wrong about my assessment of the Eagles and McNabb. McNabb has looked as good as he's ever been. These are the 2 best teams in the NFC. Yes, better than the Packers and Giants. Packers are good, but not great. The Giants injuries and the loss of Osi and Strahan will eventually catch up to them. I wouldn't be surprised if Dallas chokes again this year. I just think they are not committing to the run like they should. They need to go to a more consistent ball control offense rather than a gun-slinging style offense. They will put their defense into too many holes with quick series and high turnovers. The Giants played the perfect style last year. Ball control, consistent, commit to the run, etc. Even the year the Colts won the Super Bowl, they didn't get into the high scoring shootouts they were accustomed to in previous years.
Just a quick comment on the Denver-San Diego game. San Diego got jobbed. If the ref wanted to make up for it, he should have called a holding penalty or something the next play against Denver. There is such a thing as a make-up call. Just shows you the ref cared more about his ego than doing the right thing. I've ref'd football and basketball before. You can practically make a case for holding almost every play in the NFL, just like you can practically call a foul almost every play in basketball.
Thursday, September 11, 2008
Weekend Predictions - 9/12/2008
Big upcoming weekend for college football. Of course USC vs Ohio State is dominating the slate. Locally, UGA plays at South Carolina, Georgia Tech plays at Virginia Tech, and some other interesting games such as Michigan at Notre Dame and Wisconsin at Fresno State.
Ohio State at USC - I predicted Ohio State to win this game before the season started. Even with their best offensive player most likely out, I still think they have a great shot. USC did look good their first game, but it was against a hapless UVA team. Ohio State struggled against Ohio, so all signs are pointing to a USC blowout. I see Ohio State's defense stepping up. However, I worry about Ohio State's offense. It will have to be a game in the 20's if Ohio State wins. USC will score some. However, it always seems in a close game, USC always does some stupid trick play or gets too fancy that will end up costing them. Pete Carroll gets too much credit for his coaching. He gambles too much, too cocky at times, and a lot of times bites him in these big games, ala Texas, and panic against Stanford last year. I hate to waffle on my prediction, but with Ohio State's best player out, I can change my mind. Prediction: USC 24 Ohio State 20
Georgia at South Carolina - Georgia hasn't played anybody real yet and South Carolina lost to an inferior Vanderbilt team. I don't think Steve Spurrier has lost his touch. He just doesn't have the talent he had at Florida. Georgia is loaded. Historically, South Carolina has played Georgia tough. The road team has won the past 2 years. I see it different this year. Georgia has a lot of swagger and confidence while South Carolina is still trying to find their identity. Their offense has not looked good either of the first 2 weeks. Their defense has look respectable. I see UGA winning this one easily by at least 2 TD.
Prediction: Georgia 31 South Carolina 17
Georgia Tech at Virginia Tech - I'm not going to make a prediction for this game but I will give my thoughts on the game. I watched all of the Georgia Tech - Boston College game last week. I was impressed with Georgia Tech. They made a lot of mistakes and fumbled the ball more than I would like, but it's a learning curve. Georgia Tech's defense is very good. Paul Johnson's offense will work at this level. Keep an eye on Michael Johnson, Defensive End. He's like a Power Forward playing football. A little slender for a DE, but reminds me of Jason Taylor. Virginia Tech struggled against Furman last week, which is not a good sign for them. The big advantage for VT is Georgia Tech has to travel 2 weeks in a row against 2 tough opponents.
Other Predictions: I like Notre Dame over Michigan. Both teams aren't very good, but ND is at home and has better QB play. Notre Dame's defense will be a lot better this year. Jon Tenuta is their new Defensive Coordinator and he will blitz a lot, which doesn't bode well for inconsistent QB's.
Wisconsin at Fresno State: Interesting matchup. Wisconsin likes to run, run, run. I initially liked Fresno State, but I'm not sure if they can matchup physically with Wisconsin. Slight lean to Wisconsin.
Upset of the week: Not much to choose from this week. Let's see if I can follow up my ECU pick last week. I'm going to go with Maryland over Cal. Maryland lost to Middle Tennessee State and struggled with Deleware, so not much logic in picking them. Maryland historically plays to the level of their opponents and they are at home. A West Coast team traveling to the East Coast to play a 12 Noon game struggles a lot of times. Cal is relatively young and struggled down the stretch last year with a better team. Cal is a little over-rated.
NFL Football - I can't believe all the hype and bandwagon jumping I'm seeing after one week. This is the fallout from the Brady injury. A lot of people are jumping on the Steelers right now. Let's not forget all they did was beat Houston. Yes, they dominated, but do it against a credible opponent, then jump on their bandwagon. Chicago is getting a lot of accolades for beating the Colts. Yes, they played very well and they were on the road. Let's not forget the Colts were without 2 of their starting Offensive Lineman and Peyton Manning didn't see any preseason action. They still have Kyle Orton at QB, a mid-level rookie at RB, and Wide Receivers no one can name. They'll be lucky to win 6 games this year.
Carolina Panthers - I think the Panthers beat the Bears by 7-10 points at least this week. Historically the Panthers do not play very well at home. However, I think this Panthers team is different. They are riding an emotional high from their last game, I see more intensity and fire in this team that I haven't seen since their Super Bowl season. The Panthers running game will be on display this week.
Upset of the week - A lot of small lines this Sunday, so a lot of upset picks really can't be considered an upset. I'm going to go with Cleveland over Pittsburgh. This is a division rivalry, Cleveland is at home, the game is on Prime Time (NBC), and Cleveland needs it more.
Ohio State at USC - I predicted Ohio State to win this game before the season started. Even with their best offensive player most likely out, I still think they have a great shot. USC did look good their first game, but it was against a hapless UVA team. Ohio State struggled against Ohio, so all signs are pointing to a USC blowout. I see Ohio State's defense stepping up. However, I worry about Ohio State's offense. It will have to be a game in the 20's if Ohio State wins. USC will score some. However, it always seems in a close game, USC always does some stupid trick play or gets too fancy that will end up costing them. Pete Carroll gets too much credit for his coaching. He gambles too much, too cocky at times, and a lot of times bites him in these big games, ala Texas, and panic against Stanford last year. I hate to waffle on my prediction, but with Ohio State's best player out, I can change my mind. Prediction: USC 24 Ohio State 20
Georgia at South Carolina - Georgia hasn't played anybody real yet and South Carolina lost to an inferior Vanderbilt team. I don't think Steve Spurrier has lost his touch. He just doesn't have the talent he had at Florida. Georgia is loaded. Historically, South Carolina has played Georgia tough. The road team has won the past 2 years. I see it different this year. Georgia has a lot of swagger and confidence while South Carolina is still trying to find their identity. Their offense has not looked good either of the first 2 weeks. Their defense has look respectable. I see UGA winning this one easily by at least 2 TD.
Prediction: Georgia 31 South Carolina 17
Georgia Tech at Virginia Tech - I'm not going to make a prediction for this game but I will give my thoughts on the game. I watched all of the Georgia Tech - Boston College game last week. I was impressed with Georgia Tech. They made a lot of mistakes and fumbled the ball more than I would like, but it's a learning curve. Georgia Tech's defense is very good. Paul Johnson's offense will work at this level. Keep an eye on Michael Johnson, Defensive End. He's like a Power Forward playing football. A little slender for a DE, but reminds me of Jason Taylor. Virginia Tech struggled against Furman last week, which is not a good sign for them. The big advantage for VT is Georgia Tech has to travel 2 weeks in a row against 2 tough opponents.
Other Predictions: I like Notre Dame over Michigan. Both teams aren't very good, but ND is at home and has better QB play. Notre Dame's defense will be a lot better this year. Jon Tenuta is their new Defensive Coordinator and he will blitz a lot, which doesn't bode well for inconsistent QB's.
Wisconsin at Fresno State: Interesting matchup. Wisconsin likes to run, run, run. I initially liked Fresno State, but I'm not sure if they can matchup physically with Wisconsin. Slight lean to Wisconsin.
Upset of the week: Not much to choose from this week. Let's see if I can follow up my ECU pick last week. I'm going to go with Maryland over Cal. Maryland lost to Middle Tennessee State and struggled with Deleware, so not much logic in picking them. Maryland historically plays to the level of their opponents and they are at home. A West Coast team traveling to the East Coast to play a 12 Noon game struggles a lot of times. Cal is relatively young and struggled down the stretch last year with a better team. Cal is a little over-rated.
NFL Football - I can't believe all the hype and bandwagon jumping I'm seeing after one week. This is the fallout from the Brady injury. A lot of people are jumping on the Steelers right now. Let's not forget all they did was beat Houston. Yes, they dominated, but do it against a credible opponent, then jump on their bandwagon. Chicago is getting a lot of accolades for beating the Colts. Yes, they played very well and they were on the road. Let's not forget the Colts were without 2 of their starting Offensive Lineman and Peyton Manning didn't see any preseason action. They still have Kyle Orton at QB, a mid-level rookie at RB, and Wide Receivers no one can name. They'll be lucky to win 6 games this year.
Carolina Panthers - I think the Panthers beat the Bears by 7-10 points at least this week. Historically the Panthers do not play very well at home. However, I think this Panthers team is different. They are riding an emotional high from their last game, I see more intensity and fire in this team that I haven't seen since their Super Bowl season. The Panthers running game will be on display this week.
Upset of the week - A lot of small lines this Sunday, so a lot of upset picks really can't be considered an upset. I'm going to go with Cleveland over Pittsburgh. This is a division rivalry, Cleveland is at home, the game is on Prime Time (NBC), and Cleveland needs it more.
Down Goes Brady and WVU. Miracle in San Diego.
College - Ohio State struggled against lowly Ohio. Classic case of looking ahead. Now it seems all of sudden everyone is predicting they have no chance against USC. With Beanie Wells most likely out, it's going to be even tougher now. I think they still have a good chance. They still have a great defense and Tressel is one of the best coaches in the country. Ohio State will be ready.
East Carolina pulled off the upset of WVU. My upset prediction came through. ECU has a good chance to run the table. The bigger question will be which big time program will Skip Holtz be coaching next year?
Pro - Of course the big news is Tom Brady's injury. Very unfortunate. Hate to see that happen to anyone, especially the caliber of player Brady is. This leaves the AFC wide open now. Matt Cassel is not going to be able to lead this team to the promiseland. Belichick's stubborness of not having a veteran backup comes back an bite him. Everyone now is jumping aboard the Steeler's bandwagon after one game. Jacksonville was my #2 team in the AFC before Brady's injury, so I will now elevate them to #1 in the AFC. Yes, they lost this past Sunday, but it was a road rivalry game. The Cowboys are now the Super Bowl favorites and rightfully so.
Carolina Panthers - Tremendous victory for the Panthers over the weekend. Probably the the 4th best victory in franchise history (1 - Defeated Eagles to go to Super Bowl. 2 - Defeated Rams in OT to get to NFC Championship game. 3 - Defeated Cowboys at home in 1997 to reach NFC Title game). The Panthers are going to be force in the NFC if they can stay healthy. I saw some inefficiencies such as poor red zone offense and poor play calling, but nothing that can't be fixed. Steve Smith back in week 3. Jonathan Stewart and Jeff Otah has greatly improved this team. The defense isn't a force like it once was, but they are playing as a unit and have a lot of versatility with their players and schemes.
East Carolina pulled off the upset of WVU. My upset prediction came through. ECU has a good chance to run the table. The bigger question will be which big time program will Skip Holtz be coaching next year?
Pro - Of course the big news is Tom Brady's injury. Very unfortunate. Hate to see that happen to anyone, especially the caliber of player Brady is. This leaves the AFC wide open now. Matt Cassel is not going to be able to lead this team to the promiseland. Belichick's stubborness of not having a veteran backup comes back an bite him. Everyone now is jumping aboard the Steeler's bandwagon after one game. Jacksonville was my #2 team in the AFC before Brady's injury, so I will now elevate them to #1 in the AFC. Yes, they lost this past Sunday, but it was a road rivalry game. The Cowboys are now the Super Bowl favorites and rightfully so.
Carolina Panthers - Tremendous victory for the Panthers over the weekend. Probably the the 4th best victory in franchise history (1 - Defeated Eagles to go to Super Bowl. 2 - Defeated Rams in OT to get to NFC Championship game. 3 - Defeated Cowboys at home in 1997 to reach NFC Title game). The Panthers are going to be force in the NFC if they can stay healthy. I saw some inefficiencies such as poor red zone offense and poor play calling, but nothing that can't be fixed. Steve Smith back in week 3. Jonathan Stewart and Jeff Otah has greatly improved this team. The defense isn't a force like it once was, but they are playing as a unit and have a lot of versatility with their players and schemes.
Friday, September 5, 2008
Weekend Preview - 9/5/2008
The weekend got off with an early start last night. The NY Giants dominated the 1st half last night and hung on in the second half. The Redskins continued their preseason hangover. Vanderbilt shocked South Carolina. Like I said last earlier in the week, the Gamecocks did not impress me last week, even though they won 34-0.
Here are some weekend predictions:
The Panthers travel to San Diego this Sunday. I'm not picking the Panthers to win, but I think it will be close. Historically under the John Fox era, the Panthers play season openers on the road a lot better than they do at home. Granted they've never opened with an opponent the caliber of San Diego, but I think San Diego wins by 4 or less, not the double digits a lot of the experts predict.
Georgia Tech has their 1st real test of the year when they travel to Boston College. This will be the 1st big test to see how Paul Johnson's offense works against the big boys. BC's strenghth in their defense is stopping the run, where they were one of the top teams in the country. GT's strength this year, will be their defense, not their offense. GT has 2 potential 1st round draft picks on the D-Line. I predict a low scoring affair. BC comes out on top though.
Not much of a big slate in College Football this weekend. A lot of good games next weekend. The game that interests me the most is Florida-Miami. Miami has historically played Florida tough and has won most of the time. However, the game is at the swamp, Miami is young with an inexperienced QB, and Florida is primed and ready to go. Even though I still don't trust the Gator defense, they should have no problem with this young Miami team.
I'm going to start picking an upset special every Friday for college and pro.
College: Not a good slate to pick upsets this weekend. However, I think East Carolina can knock of West Virginia. The Pirates have a good defense and are sky high off their win over Virginia Tech. WVU gave up more points than I though they would against Villanova and gave up a ton of yards.
Pro: I initially said Buffalo over Seattle, but I'm not sure if that would be considered an upset. I'm going to go with Atlanta over Detroit. How often has Detroit ever been favored on the road? Everyone is counting Atlanta out this season. However, if they do win this game, it will be one of the few they do win. Atlanta will rely more on Michael Turner than Matt Ryan. Detroit lost their best defensive lineman in the off-season. The Lions have a lot of offensive weapons. Atlanta's defense will have to get into bend but don't break mode.
Here are some weekend predictions:
The Panthers travel to San Diego this Sunday. I'm not picking the Panthers to win, but I think it will be close. Historically under the John Fox era, the Panthers play season openers on the road a lot better than they do at home. Granted they've never opened with an opponent the caliber of San Diego, but I think San Diego wins by 4 or less, not the double digits a lot of the experts predict.
Georgia Tech has their 1st real test of the year when they travel to Boston College. This will be the 1st big test to see how Paul Johnson's offense works against the big boys. BC's strenghth in their defense is stopping the run, where they were one of the top teams in the country. GT's strength this year, will be their defense, not their offense. GT has 2 potential 1st round draft picks on the D-Line. I predict a low scoring affair. BC comes out on top though.
Not much of a big slate in College Football this weekend. A lot of good games next weekend. The game that interests me the most is Florida-Miami. Miami has historically played Florida tough and has won most of the time. However, the game is at the swamp, Miami is young with an inexperienced QB, and Florida is primed and ready to go. Even though I still don't trust the Gator defense, they should have no problem with this young Miami team.
I'm going to start picking an upset special every Friday for college and pro.
College: Not a good slate to pick upsets this weekend. However, I think East Carolina can knock of West Virginia. The Pirates have a good defense and are sky high off their win over Virginia Tech. WVU gave up more points than I though they would against Villanova and gave up a ton of yards.
Pro: I initially said Buffalo over Seattle, but I'm not sure if that would be considered an upset. I'm going to go with Atlanta over Detroit. How often has Detroit ever been favored on the road? Everyone is counting Atlanta out this season. However, if they do win this game, it will be one of the few they do win. Atlanta will rely more on Michael Turner than Matt Ryan. Detroit lost their best defensive lineman in the off-season. The Lions have a lot of offensive weapons. Atlanta's defense will have to get into bend but don't break mode.
Wednesday, September 3, 2008
NFL Predictions
The NFL season is almost upon us. For the 1st time in a long time, I'm more excited about the NFL season than I am about the College Football Season. I don't think we will see domination in the league like the Patriots did last year, until they got to the Super Bowl. I think it will be more wide open than most experts think. However, I'm going with the glamour pick for the Super Bowl: New England Patriots over Dallas Cowboys
My sleeper picks are the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Green Bay Packers.
Here are my division breakdowns.
NFC South: 1. Carolina 2. New Orleans 3. Tampa Bay 4. Atlanta
I guess you can call this a homer pick for me. Initially, I liked the Saints over the Panthers, but breaking down the preseason and schedules, I went with the Panthers. I've been good with my predictions for the Panthers the past few years. I thought they were over-rated last year and thought they were very under-rated during their Super Bowl run. They won't be a Super Bowl team this year, but they will be good. They made a lot of right moves in the off-season. If Peppers can get some help on the D-Line, their Defense will be one of the tops in the league again. I think they will have the best Linebacker corp in the NFL. Most favorably, looking at their schedule, it's one of the easiest schedules in the league. The Saints have a tougher schedule than the rest of the division. Tough road games. Tampa is getting old fast and it will show this year. Atlanta is rebuilding.
NFC East: 1. Dallas 2. NY Giants 3. Philadelphia 4. Washington
Dallas is loaded this year. I think they will be better than last year. There is no reason this team should not get to the Super Bowl. I know Romo still hasn't won a playoff game, but he's the type of person to build off past experiences. The Giants are the defending champs. However, losing Strahan and Osi will cost them dearly. I don't see much difference in this Philly team than last year. Sure, they signed Assante Samuel, but they need a lot more help than that. I would not be surprise that this is McNabb's last year in Philly. The Redskins have looked awful this preseason. Sure, it's just preseason, but it's their starters that look very bad.
NFC North: 1. Green Bay 2. Minnesota 3. Detroit 4. Chicago
A lot of people like Minnesota this year. I still don't understand why people are giving Tavaris Jackson a pass over Aaron Rodgers. Until Minnesota gets a good QB, they will be an average team. Green Bay has a lot of young talent. I think McCarthy and Ted Thompson are getting a bad wrap with this Favre thing. They rebuilt this team with young talent and their future looks bright. If they believe in Aaron Rodgers, I'm on board. Detroit is getting better, but not enough. I think Chicago and Atlanta will fight it out as the worst 2 teams in the NFL this year.
NFC West: 1. Arizona 2. Seattle 3. San Francisco 4. St Louis
This is my surprise pick. Most experts are picking Seattle. They just have too many injury issues. Arizona has been taking a step in the right direction. Wisenhunt is doing a good job and this year will show. However, this will be by far the weakest division in the NFL. Arizona or Seattle probably would be the last place team in the NFC East.
AFC East: 1. New England 2. New York Jets 3. Buffalo 4. Miami
I don't see 16-0 or anything close to that this year. I see more like 12-4 this year. The Jets are closing the gap, but Brady and Company are too strong. Their defense is slipping a little this year. Not really much to say about Buffalo or Miami. Both are trying to improve, but unless Brady retires, it doesn't look like it will happen soon.
AFC South: 1. Jacksonville 2. Indianapolis 3. Houston 4. Tennessee
This is finally the year Jacksonville overtakes Indianapolis. They finally have a stable QB and their defense will be tops in the NFL this year. Depth at key positions. I like them. If things fall their way, like injuries with New England, they could wind up in the Super Bowl. The reason I'm not picking Indianapolis, I just don't see any fire in Dungy. His poor coaching cost them against San Diego last year. They are dealing with injury issues too. Houston will be slightly improve. Tennessee I see just getting worse. Vince Young has regressed rather than progressed and he does not have a good WR corp.
AFC North: 1. Pittsburgh 2. Cleveland 3. Cincinnati 4. Baltimore
Cleveland made a lot of off-season acquisitions on defense. I'm going more with gut than logic with Cleveland. Since Crennel has gotten there, they've been very inconsistent. Pittsburgh will still be the class of the league by default. I don't see any improvement in Cincy and Baltimore may be the worst team in the AFC this year.
AFC West: 1. San Diego 2. Denver 3. Oakland 4. Kansas City
I think San Diego is the best team in the division, but I see them slipping a little this year. Merriman will not last the season, Gates is dealing with an injury, LT was banged up more last year than he ever has in his career. All signs point to a decline. Fortunately for San Diego, the rest of the division is inconsistent. I think Denver has a chance to overtake San Diego, but I want to see some result before I trust them. Even though Oakland should be a little more improved this year, KC and Oakland are about even for 2 bad teams.
Playoff Predictions.
NFC - 1. Dallas 2. Green Bay 3. Carolina 4. Arizona 5. Saints 6. Giants
NFC Championship - Dallas over Carolina
AFC - 1. New England 2. Jacksonville 3. San Diego 4. Pittsburgh 5. Indianapolis 6. Cleveland/Jets (One of the two, slight advantage to Cleveland).
AFC Championship - New England over Jacksonville
Super Bowl - New England over Dallas
My sleeper picks are the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Green Bay Packers.
Here are my division breakdowns.
NFC South: 1. Carolina 2. New Orleans 3. Tampa Bay 4. Atlanta
I guess you can call this a homer pick for me. Initially, I liked the Saints over the Panthers, but breaking down the preseason and schedules, I went with the Panthers. I've been good with my predictions for the Panthers the past few years. I thought they were over-rated last year and thought they were very under-rated during their Super Bowl run. They won't be a Super Bowl team this year, but they will be good. They made a lot of right moves in the off-season. If Peppers can get some help on the D-Line, their Defense will be one of the tops in the league again. I think they will have the best Linebacker corp in the NFL. Most favorably, looking at their schedule, it's one of the easiest schedules in the league. The Saints have a tougher schedule than the rest of the division. Tough road games. Tampa is getting old fast and it will show this year. Atlanta is rebuilding.
NFC East: 1. Dallas 2. NY Giants 3. Philadelphia 4. Washington
Dallas is loaded this year. I think they will be better than last year. There is no reason this team should not get to the Super Bowl. I know Romo still hasn't won a playoff game, but he's the type of person to build off past experiences. The Giants are the defending champs. However, losing Strahan and Osi will cost them dearly. I don't see much difference in this Philly team than last year. Sure, they signed Assante Samuel, but they need a lot more help than that. I would not be surprise that this is McNabb's last year in Philly. The Redskins have looked awful this preseason. Sure, it's just preseason, but it's their starters that look very bad.
NFC North: 1. Green Bay 2. Minnesota 3. Detroit 4. Chicago
A lot of people like Minnesota this year. I still don't understand why people are giving Tavaris Jackson a pass over Aaron Rodgers. Until Minnesota gets a good QB, they will be an average team. Green Bay has a lot of young talent. I think McCarthy and Ted Thompson are getting a bad wrap with this Favre thing. They rebuilt this team with young talent and their future looks bright. If they believe in Aaron Rodgers, I'm on board. Detroit is getting better, but not enough. I think Chicago and Atlanta will fight it out as the worst 2 teams in the NFL this year.
NFC West: 1. Arizona 2. Seattle 3. San Francisco 4. St Louis
This is my surprise pick. Most experts are picking Seattle. They just have too many injury issues. Arizona has been taking a step in the right direction. Wisenhunt is doing a good job and this year will show. However, this will be by far the weakest division in the NFL. Arizona or Seattle probably would be the last place team in the NFC East.
AFC East: 1. New England 2. New York Jets 3. Buffalo 4. Miami
I don't see 16-0 or anything close to that this year. I see more like 12-4 this year. The Jets are closing the gap, but Brady and Company are too strong. Their defense is slipping a little this year. Not really much to say about Buffalo or Miami. Both are trying to improve, but unless Brady retires, it doesn't look like it will happen soon.
AFC South: 1. Jacksonville 2. Indianapolis 3. Houston 4. Tennessee
This is finally the year Jacksonville overtakes Indianapolis. They finally have a stable QB and their defense will be tops in the NFL this year. Depth at key positions. I like them. If things fall their way, like injuries with New England, they could wind up in the Super Bowl. The reason I'm not picking Indianapolis, I just don't see any fire in Dungy. His poor coaching cost them against San Diego last year. They are dealing with injury issues too. Houston will be slightly improve. Tennessee I see just getting worse. Vince Young has regressed rather than progressed and he does not have a good WR corp.
AFC North: 1. Pittsburgh 2. Cleveland 3. Cincinnati 4. Baltimore
Cleveland made a lot of off-season acquisitions on defense. I'm going more with gut than logic with Cleveland. Since Crennel has gotten there, they've been very inconsistent. Pittsburgh will still be the class of the league by default. I don't see any improvement in Cincy and Baltimore may be the worst team in the AFC this year.
AFC West: 1. San Diego 2. Denver 3. Oakland 4. Kansas City
I think San Diego is the best team in the division, but I see them slipping a little this year. Merriman will not last the season, Gates is dealing with an injury, LT was banged up more last year than he ever has in his career. All signs point to a decline. Fortunately for San Diego, the rest of the division is inconsistent. I think Denver has a chance to overtake San Diego, but I want to see some result before I trust them. Even though Oakland should be a little more improved this year, KC and Oakland are about even for 2 bad teams.
Playoff Predictions.
NFC - 1. Dallas 2. Green Bay 3. Carolina 4. Arizona 5. Saints 6. Giants
NFC Championship - Dallas over Carolina
AFC - 1. New England 2. Jacksonville 3. San Diego 4. Pittsburgh 5. Indianapolis 6. Cleveland/Jets (One of the two, slight advantage to Cleveland).
AFC Championship - New England over Jacksonville
Super Bowl - New England over Dallas
College Football Breakdown - Week 1
I watched a lot of college football over the weekend. I will breakdown my thoughts and opinions below:
Florida - Yes, they won 56-10 over the weekend. However, I saw a lot of holes in their defense. Their defense was their downfall last year and will be this year. I may have over-rated them a bit. They will struggle against strong rushing teams. However, they have a favorable schedule this year.
Georgia - Georgia suffered a big setback losing a starting Defensive Lineman this weekend. They'll be OK, but their schedule will still be their downfall this year.
Clemson - Could anyone else not see this result? Like I said Tommy Bowden is a big game choker. Most of their Offensive Line is new. They got all the accolades because of the return of their glamour players. Harper, Spiller, and Davis returned, but as we saw, you need more than them.
Ohio State - Hopefully Beanie Wells will be back for the USC game. USC did look impressive, but I'll still go with Ohio State in their showdown even though I'm not liking it. Their defense is too stacked.
Wake Forest - I should have rated them in my top 3 ACC predictions. They were off my radar. As we saw, the ACC looked bad as a whole.
ACC Football - Yes, everyone is calling them a joke and rightfully so. It's just a bad cycle for them right now. It starts with Miami and FSU, who aren't the dominant teams they use to be. The reason I believe they are down is due to the Florida Gators dominance in the state. Miami and FSU have been spread thin, while the Gators have reaped the benefits in recruiting. Also, there are a lot of over-rated coaches in the ACC. Al Groh and Tommy Bowden to start. Plus, the ACC have a lot of young teams this season.
Cupcake scheduling - I think the BCS should reward scheduling like the NCAA basketball tournament committee does. Whatever formula the BCS uses, they should penalize for scheduling I-AA teams. Strength of Schedule should have more emphasis.
Any changes in my predictions? - Depending on the stature of Beanie Wells injury, I may have to go with USC. Florida and South Carolina, even though they won by big margins, they aren't as good as they seem. Missouri may be better than I thought. I'd probably give them a nod over Texas for #2 in the Big 12.
Coaches that need to go after this season: Dave Wannstedt and Phillip Fulmer. Very poor coaching jobs. They had the talent to dominant their opponents over the weekend, but yet found a way to lose.
Florida - Yes, they won 56-10 over the weekend. However, I saw a lot of holes in their defense. Their defense was their downfall last year and will be this year. I may have over-rated them a bit. They will struggle against strong rushing teams. However, they have a favorable schedule this year.
Georgia - Georgia suffered a big setback losing a starting Defensive Lineman this weekend. They'll be OK, but their schedule will still be their downfall this year.
Clemson - Could anyone else not see this result? Like I said Tommy Bowden is a big game choker. Most of their Offensive Line is new. They got all the accolades because of the return of their glamour players. Harper, Spiller, and Davis returned, but as we saw, you need more than them.
Ohio State - Hopefully Beanie Wells will be back for the USC game. USC did look impressive, but I'll still go with Ohio State in their showdown even though I'm not liking it. Their defense is too stacked.
Wake Forest - I should have rated them in my top 3 ACC predictions. They were off my radar. As we saw, the ACC looked bad as a whole.
ACC Football - Yes, everyone is calling them a joke and rightfully so. It's just a bad cycle for them right now. It starts with Miami and FSU, who aren't the dominant teams they use to be. The reason I believe they are down is due to the Florida Gators dominance in the state. Miami and FSU have been spread thin, while the Gators have reaped the benefits in recruiting. Also, there are a lot of over-rated coaches in the ACC. Al Groh and Tommy Bowden to start. Plus, the ACC have a lot of young teams this season.
Cupcake scheduling - I think the BCS should reward scheduling like the NCAA basketball tournament committee does. Whatever formula the BCS uses, they should penalize for scheduling I-AA teams. Strength of Schedule should have more emphasis.
Any changes in my predictions? - Depending on the stature of Beanie Wells injury, I may have to go with USC. Florida and South Carolina, even though they won by big margins, they aren't as good as they seem. Missouri may be better than I thought. I'd probably give them a nod over Texas for #2 in the Big 12.
Coaches that need to go after this season: Dave Wannstedt and Phillip Fulmer. Very poor coaching jobs. They had the talent to dominant their opponents over the weekend, but yet found a way to lose.
College Football Preview
I got started on my blog last week about my college football predictions and didn’t get a chance to get it out before the season. Tough finding time with a baby on the way, I can’t imagine how it will be when he actually arrives. Below were my predictions:
The Georgia Bulldogs were #1 in most preseason polls, but they aren’t the powerhouse pick as we’ve seen in previous years. I do not think UGA will not be there in the end. They may not even win the SEC. At best, I think UGA is a 10-2 team this year, but more than likely 9-3 (not including bowl game). Their schedule is too tough. If they had last year’s schedule, I’d give them more of a chance. If
1. Oklahoma 2. Ohio State 3. USC 4. Florida 5. Georgia 6. West Virginia 7. Texas 8. Auburn 9. LSU 10. Florida State
SEC – 1.
The SEC is always tough to predict. It’s consistently the best college football conference.
ACC – 1.
A lot of the media is picking Clemson this year. Living in ACC country, I’ve seen this story plenty of times. Tommy Bowden is as overrated coach you will find and Clemson will lose 1-2 games every year they aren’t supposed to. I like FSU to bounce back this year. They still consistently recruit the best athletes in the ACC. The ACC is not top heavy this year, but if things are close to even in the ACC, I would always take FSU.
Big 12 – 1.
I like
Big 10 – 1.
Big East – 1.
Pac 10 – 1. USC 2.
This is still USC’s league. They play ASU and
Others – 1.
Notice no Notre Dame. They are a 7-5/8-4 team at best.
National Championship:
After I wrote this, I saw that Sports Illustrated picked the same National Championship game. However, I picked
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