The weekend got off with an early start last night. The NY Giants dominated the 1st half last night and hung on in the second half. The Redskins continued their preseason hangover. Vanderbilt shocked South Carolina. Like I said last earlier in the week, the Gamecocks did not impress me last week, even though they won 34-0.
Here are some weekend predictions:
The Panthers travel to San Diego this Sunday. I'm not picking the Panthers to win, but I think it will be close. Historically under the John Fox era, the Panthers play season openers on the road a lot better than they do at home. Granted they've never opened with an opponent the caliber of San Diego, but I think San Diego wins by 4 or less, not the double digits a lot of the experts predict.
Georgia Tech has their 1st real test of the year when they travel to Boston College. This will be the 1st big test to see how Paul Johnson's offense works against the big boys. BC's strenghth in their defense is stopping the run, where they were one of the top teams in the country. GT's strength this year, will be their defense, not their offense. GT has 2 potential 1st round draft picks on the D-Line. I predict a low scoring affair. BC comes out on top though.
Not much of a big slate in College Football this weekend. A lot of good games next weekend. The game that interests me the most is Florida-Miami. Miami has historically played Florida tough and has won most of the time. However, the game is at the swamp, Miami is young with an inexperienced QB, and Florida is primed and ready to go. Even though I still don't trust the Gator defense, they should have no problem with this young Miami team.
I'm going to start picking an upset special every Friday for college and pro.
College: Not a good slate to pick upsets this weekend. However, I think East Carolina can knock of West Virginia. The Pirates have a good defense and are sky high off their win over Virginia Tech. WVU gave up more points than I though they would against Villanova and gave up a ton of yards.
Pro: I initially said Buffalo over Seattle, but I'm not sure if that would be considered an upset. I'm going to go with Atlanta over Detroit. How often has Detroit ever been favored on the road? Everyone is counting Atlanta out this season. However, if they do win this game, it will be one of the few they do win. Atlanta will rely more on Michael Turner than Matt Ryan. Detroit lost their best defensive lineman in the off-season. The Lions have a lot of offensive weapons. Atlanta's defense will have to get into bend but don't break mode.
Friday, September 5, 2008
Wednesday, September 3, 2008
NFL Predictions
The NFL season is almost upon us. For the 1st time in a long time, I'm more excited about the NFL season than I am about the College Football Season. I don't think we will see domination in the league like the Patriots did last year, until they got to the Super Bowl. I think it will be more wide open than most experts think. However, I'm going with the glamour pick for the Super Bowl: New England Patriots over Dallas Cowboys
My sleeper picks are the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Green Bay Packers.
Here are my division breakdowns.
NFC South: 1. Carolina 2. New Orleans 3. Tampa Bay 4. Atlanta
I guess you can call this a homer pick for me. Initially, I liked the Saints over the Panthers, but breaking down the preseason and schedules, I went with the Panthers. I've been good with my predictions for the Panthers the past few years. I thought they were over-rated last year and thought they were very under-rated during their Super Bowl run. They won't be a Super Bowl team this year, but they will be good. They made a lot of right moves in the off-season. If Peppers can get some help on the D-Line, their Defense will be one of the tops in the league again. I think they will have the best Linebacker corp in the NFL. Most favorably, looking at their schedule, it's one of the easiest schedules in the league. The Saints have a tougher schedule than the rest of the division. Tough road games. Tampa is getting old fast and it will show this year. Atlanta is rebuilding.
NFC East: 1. Dallas 2. NY Giants 3. Philadelphia 4. Washington
Dallas is loaded this year. I think they will be better than last year. There is no reason this team should not get to the Super Bowl. I know Romo still hasn't won a playoff game, but he's the type of person to build off past experiences. The Giants are the defending champs. However, losing Strahan and Osi will cost them dearly. I don't see much difference in this Philly team than last year. Sure, they signed Assante Samuel, but they need a lot more help than that. I would not be surprise that this is McNabb's last year in Philly. The Redskins have looked awful this preseason. Sure, it's just preseason, but it's their starters that look very bad.
NFC North: 1. Green Bay 2. Minnesota 3. Detroit 4. Chicago
A lot of people like Minnesota this year. I still don't understand why people are giving Tavaris Jackson a pass over Aaron Rodgers. Until Minnesota gets a good QB, they will be an average team. Green Bay has a lot of young talent. I think McCarthy and Ted Thompson are getting a bad wrap with this Favre thing. They rebuilt this team with young talent and their future looks bright. If they believe in Aaron Rodgers, I'm on board. Detroit is getting better, but not enough. I think Chicago and Atlanta will fight it out as the worst 2 teams in the NFL this year.
NFC West: 1. Arizona 2. Seattle 3. San Francisco 4. St Louis
This is my surprise pick. Most experts are picking Seattle. They just have too many injury issues. Arizona has been taking a step in the right direction. Wisenhunt is doing a good job and this year will show. However, this will be by far the weakest division in the NFL. Arizona or Seattle probably would be the last place team in the NFC East.
AFC East: 1. New England 2. New York Jets 3. Buffalo 4. Miami
I don't see 16-0 or anything close to that this year. I see more like 12-4 this year. The Jets are closing the gap, but Brady and Company are too strong. Their defense is slipping a little this year. Not really much to say about Buffalo or Miami. Both are trying to improve, but unless Brady retires, it doesn't look like it will happen soon.
AFC South: 1. Jacksonville 2. Indianapolis 3. Houston 4. Tennessee
This is finally the year Jacksonville overtakes Indianapolis. They finally have a stable QB and their defense will be tops in the NFL this year. Depth at key positions. I like them. If things fall their way, like injuries with New England, they could wind up in the Super Bowl. The reason I'm not picking Indianapolis, I just don't see any fire in Dungy. His poor coaching cost them against San Diego last year. They are dealing with injury issues too. Houston will be slightly improve. Tennessee I see just getting worse. Vince Young has regressed rather than progressed and he does not have a good WR corp.
AFC North: 1. Pittsburgh 2. Cleveland 3. Cincinnati 4. Baltimore
Cleveland made a lot of off-season acquisitions on defense. I'm going more with gut than logic with Cleveland. Since Crennel has gotten there, they've been very inconsistent. Pittsburgh will still be the class of the league by default. I don't see any improvement in Cincy and Baltimore may be the worst team in the AFC this year.
AFC West: 1. San Diego 2. Denver 3. Oakland 4. Kansas City
I think San Diego is the best team in the division, but I see them slipping a little this year. Merriman will not last the season, Gates is dealing with an injury, LT was banged up more last year than he ever has in his career. All signs point to a decline. Fortunately for San Diego, the rest of the division is inconsistent. I think Denver has a chance to overtake San Diego, but I want to see some result before I trust them. Even though Oakland should be a little more improved this year, KC and Oakland are about even for 2 bad teams.
Playoff Predictions.
NFC - 1. Dallas 2. Green Bay 3. Carolina 4. Arizona 5. Saints 6. Giants
NFC Championship - Dallas over Carolina
AFC - 1. New England 2. Jacksonville 3. San Diego 4. Pittsburgh 5. Indianapolis 6. Cleveland/Jets (One of the two, slight advantage to Cleveland).
AFC Championship - New England over Jacksonville
Super Bowl - New England over Dallas
My sleeper picks are the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Green Bay Packers.
Here are my division breakdowns.
NFC South: 1. Carolina 2. New Orleans 3. Tampa Bay 4. Atlanta
I guess you can call this a homer pick for me. Initially, I liked the Saints over the Panthers, but breaking down the preseason and schedules, I went with the Panthers. I've been good with my predictions for the Panthers the past few years. I thought they were over-rated last year and thought they were very under-rated during their Super Bowl run. They won't be a Super Bowl team this year, but they will be good. They made a lot of right moves in the off-season. If Peppers can get some help on the D-Line, their Defense will be one of the tops in the league again. I think they will have the best Linebacker corp in the NFL. Most favorably, looking at their schedule, it's one of the easiest schedules in the league. The Saints have a tougher schedule than the rest of the division. Tough road games. Tampa is getting old fast and it will show this year. Atlanta is rebuilding.
NFC East: 1. Dallas 2. NY Giants 3. Philadelphia 4. Washington
Dallas is loaded this year. I think they will be better than last year. There is no reason this team should not get to the Super Bowl. I know Romo still hasn't won a playoff game, but he's the type of person to build off past experiences. The Giants are the defending champs. However, losing Strahan and Osi will cost them dearly. I don't see much difference in this Philly team than last year. Sure, they signed Assante Samuel, but they need a lot more help than that. I would not be surprise that this is McNabb's last year in Philly. The Redskins have looked awful this preseason. Sure, it's just preseason, but it's their starters that look very bad.
NFC North: 1. Green Bay 2. Minnesota 3. Detroit 4. Chicago
A lot of people like Minnesota this year. I still don't understand why people are giving Tavaris Jackson a pass over Aaron Rodgers. Until Minnesota gets a good QB, they will be an average team. Green Bay has a lot of young talent. I think McCarthy and Ted Thompson are getting a bad wrap with this Favre thing. They rebuilt this team with young talent and their future looks bright. If they believe in Aaron Rodgers, I'm on board. Detroit is getting better, but not enough. I think Chicago and Atlanta will fight it out as the worst 2 teams in the NFL this year.
NFC West: 1. Arizona 2. Seattle 3. San Francisco 4. St Louis
This is my surprise pick. Most experts are picking Seattle. They just have too many injury issues. Arizona has been taking a step in the right direction. Wisenhunt is doing a good job and this year will show. However, this will be by far the weakest division in the NFL. Arizona or Seattle probably would be the last place team in the NFC East.
AFC East: 1. New England 2. New York Jets 3. Buffalo 4. Miami
I don't see 16-0 or anything close to that this year. I see more like 12-4 this year. The Jets are closing the gap, but Brady and Company are too strong. Their defense is slipping a little this year. Not really much to say about Buffalo or Miami. Both are trying to improve, but unless Brady retires, it doesn't look like it will happen soon.
AFC South: 1. Jacksonville 2. Indianapolis 3. Houston 4. Tennessee
This is finally the year Jacksonville overtakes Indianapolis. They finally have a stable QB and their defense will be tops in the NFL this year. Depth at key positions. I like them. If things fall their way, like injuries with New England, they could wind up in the Super Bowl. The reason I'm not picking Indianapolis, I just don't see any fire in Dungy. His poor coaching cost them against San Diego last year. They are dealing with injury issues too. Houston will be slightly improve. Tennessee I see just getting worse. Vince Young has regressed rather than progressed and he does not have a good WR corp.
AFC North: 1. Pittsburgh 2. Cleveland 3. Cincinnati 4. Baltimore
Cleveland made a lot of off-season acquisitions on defense. I'm going more with gut than logic with Cleveland. Since Crennel has gotten there, they've been very inconsistent. Pittsburgh will still be the class of the league by default. I don't see any improvement in Cincy and Baltimore may be the worst team in the AFC this year.
AFC West: 1. San Diego 2. Denver 3. Oakland 4. Kansas City
I think San Diego is the best team in the division, but I see them slipping a little this year. Merriman will not last the season, Gates is dealing with an injury, LT was banged up more last year than he ever has in his career. All signs point to a decline. Fortunately for San Diego, the rest of the division is inconsistent. I think Denver has a chance to overtake San Diego, but I want to see some result before I trust them. Even though Oakland should be a little more improved this year, KC and Oakland are about even for 2 bad teams.
Playoff Predictions.
NFC - 1. Dallas 2. Green Bay 3. Carolina 4. Arizona 5. Saints 6. Giants
NFC Championship - Dallas over Carolina
AFC - 1. New England 2. Jacksonville 3. San Diego 4. Pittsburgh 5. Indianapolis 6. Cleveland/Jets (One of the two, slight advantage to Cleveland).
AFC Championship - New England over Jacksonville
Super Bowl - New England over Dallas
College Football Breakdown - Week 1
I watched a lot of college football over the weekend. I will breakdown my thoughts and opinions below:
Florida - Yes, they won 56-10 over the weekend. However, I saw a lot of holes in their defense. Their defense was their downfall last year and will be this year. I may have over-rated them a bit. They will struggle against strong rushing teams. However, they have a favorable schedule this year.
Georgia - Georgia suffered a big setback losing a starting Defensive Lineman this weekend. They'll be OK, but their schedule will still be their downfall this year.
Clemson - Could anyone else not see this result? Like I said Tommy Bowden is a big game choker. Most of their Offensive Line is new. They got all the accolades because of the return of their glamour players. Harper, Spiller, and Davis returned, but as we saw, you need more than them.
Ohio State - Hopefully Beanie Wells will be back for the USC game. USC did look impressive, but I'll still go with Ohio State in their showdown even though I'm not liking it. Their defense is too stacked.
Wake Forest - I should have rated them in my top 3 ACC predictions. They were off my radar. As we saw, the ACC looked bad as a whole.
ACC Football - Yes, everyone is calling them a joke and rightfully so. It's just a bad cycle for them right now. It starts with Miami and FSU, who aren't the dominant teams they use to be. The reason I believe they are down is due to the Florida Gators dominance in the state. Miami and FSU have been spread thin, while the Gators have reaped the benefits in recruiting. Also, there are a lot of over-rated coaches in the ACC. Al Groh and Tommy Bowden to start. Plus, the ACC have a lot of young teams this season.
Cupcake scheduling - I think the BCS should reward scheduling like the NCAA basketball tournament committee does. Whatever formula the BCS uses, they should penalize for scheduling I-AA teams. Strength of Schedule should have more emphasis.
Any changes in my predictions? - Depending on the stature of Beanie Wells injury, I may have to go with USC. Florida and South Carolina, even though they won by big margins, they aren't as good as they seem. Missouri may be better than I thought. I'd probably give them a nod over Texas for #2 in the Big 12.
Coaches that need to go after this season: Dave Wannstedt and Phillip Fulmer. Very poor coaching jobs. They had the talent to dominant their opponents over the weekend, but yet found a way to lose.
Florida - Yes, they won 56-10 over the weekend. However, I saw a lot of holes in their defense. Their defense was their downfall last year and will be this year. I may have over-rated them a bit. They will struggle against strong rushing teams. However, they have a favorable schedule this year.
Georgia - Georgia suffered a big setback losing a starting Defensive Lineman this weekend. They'll be OK, but their schedule will still be their downfall this year.
Clemson - Could anyone else not see this result? Like I said Tommy Bowden is a big game choker. Most of their Offensive Line is new. They got all the accolades because of the return of their glamour players. Harper, Spiller, and Davis returned, but as we saw, you need more than them.
Ohio State - Hopefully Beanie Wells will be back for the USC game. USC did look impressive, but I'll still go with Ohio State in their showdown even though I'm not liking it. Their defense is too stacked.
Wake Forest - I should have rated them in my top 3 ACC predictions. They were off my radar. As we saw, the ACC looked bad as a whole.
ACC Football - Yes, everyone is calling them a joke and rightfully so. It's just a bad cycle for them right now. It starts with Miami and FSU, who aren't the dominant teams they use to be. The reason I believe they are down is due to the Florida Gators dominance in the state. Miami and FSU have been spread thin, while the Gators have reaped the benefits in recruiting. Also, there are a lot of over-rated coaches in the ACC. Al Groh and Tommy Bowden to start. Plus, the ACC have a lot of young teams this season.
Cupcake scheduling - I think the BCS should reward scheduling like the NCAA basketball tournament committee does. Whatever formula the BCS uses, they should penalize for scheduling I-AA teams. Strength of Schedule should have more emphasis.
Any changes in my predictions? - Depending on the stature of Beanie Wells injury, I may have to go with USC. Florida and South Carolina, even though they won by big margins, they aren't as good as they seem. Missouri may be better than I thought. I'd probably give them a nod over Texas for #2 in the Big 12.
Coaches that need to go after this season: Dave Wannstedt and Phillip Fulmer. Very poor coaching jobs. They had the talent to dominant their opponents over the weekend, but yet found a way to lose.
College Football Preview
I got started on my blog last week about my college football predictions and didn’t get a chance to get it out before the season. Tough finding time with a baby on the way, I can’t imagine how it will be when he actually arrives. Below were my predictions:
The Georgia Bulldogs were #1 in most preseason polls, but they aren’t the powerhouse pick as we’ve seen in previous years. I do not think UGA will not be there in the end. They may not even win the SEC. At best, I think UGA is a 10-2 team this year, but more than likely 9-3 (not including bowl game). Their schedule is too tough. If they had last year’s schedule, I’d give them more of a chance. If
1. Oklahoma 2. Ohio State 3. USC 4. Florida 5. Georgia 6. West Virginia 7. Texas 8. Auburn 9. LSU 10. Florida State
SEC – 1.
The SEC is always tough to predict. It’s consistently the best college football conference.
ACC – 1.
A lot of the media is picking Clemson this year. Living in ACC country, I’ve seen this story plenty of times. Tommy Bowden is as overrated coach you will find and Clemson will lose 1-2 games every year they aren’t supposed to. I like FSU to bounce back this year. They still consistently recruit the best athletes in the ACC. The ACC is not top heavy this year, but if things are close to even in the ACC, I would always take FSU.
Big 12 – 1.
I like
Big 10 – 1.
Big East – 1.
Pac 10 – 1. USC 2.
This is still USC’s league. They play ASU and
Others – 1.
Notice no Notre Dame. They are a 7-5/8-4 team at best.
National Championship:
After I wrote this, I saw that Sports Illustrated picked the same National Championship game. However, I picked
Monday, August 18, 2008
Quick Hit on the Olympics
Michael Phelps and the Redeem Team has dominated the coverage of the Summer Olympics. It was amazing that Michael Phelps won his 7th gold medal by .01 sec. Initially seeing the replay, I thought no way he won. Sports Illustrated has a frame-by-frame replay on its website that proves Phelps won. Check it out.
I've been intrigued by the Jamaicans dominating the sprints, particularly Usain Bolt. He's dominating and setting World Records with little or no effort. He's only 21, so we'll see him many years to come. He is a physical specimen. Imagine if he grew up in the United States and played football. If I was a college football coach, I'd start getting some connections in Jamaica to recruit some athletes.
I've been intrigued by the Jamaicans dominating the sprints, particularly Usain Bolt. He's dominating and setting World Records with little or no effort. He's only 21, so we'll see him many years to come. He is a physical specimen. Imagine if he grew up in the United States and played football. If I was a college football coach, I'd start getting some connections in Jamaica to recruit some athletes.
Tuesday, August 12, 2008
Latest Musings - Favre, Olympics, Panthers
A few ramblings from the past week:
Favre - I don't think there was a winner or loser from the Packers-Favre divorce. The Green Bay Packers obviously wanted to move on. Truthfully, I don't blame them. Favre has held them hostage for the past few years. The Packers were ready to move on. I think they were very frustrated. They couldn't plan for their draft, look at potential free agents, and juggle the salary cap because of Favre's waffling the past few years. Favre finally announced he was retiring. The Packers moved on. They drafted Brian Brohm in the second round in case Aaron Rodgers doesn't work out. When Favre changed his mind, AGAIN, the Packers had enough. I really think if Favre would have told them, yes, he was coming back initially, the Packers would have been satisfied and would have accepted him. They could have used their 2nd round draft pick on a position need. Obviously, any team would rather have Favre than Aaron Rodgers, but the Packers felt they were being held hostage. Thompson and McCarthy were satisfied with Rodger's progress and felt satisfied with their team without Favre. I'm not going to question the Packers for this decision. McCarthy and Thompson have been good the past few years in judging young talent. They developed a lot of young players last year and their future looks bright. Grant, Jennings, Hawk all were very young players that contributed heavily to the Packers success last year. I still think they will win the NFC Central this year.
As for Favre and the Jets, this made them from who cares to somewhat interesting. They will definitely be better than 4-12 from last year. They made a lot of FA signings and have drafted well the past 2 years. Favre is an upgrade, but not as significant as a lot of the experts are saying. Sure, he may add a few wins this year. Realistically, how many more years does he have left. Would they be better in letting Kellen Clemens develop or take a flyer on 1 year, 2 max, with Favre? I think this team is a 9-7 team at best. Problem is, this doesn't get you into the playoffs in the AFC. Favre will bring them publicity and excitement temporarily. However, I think the Packers are still in a better situation this year.
Summer Olympics - I really haven't been interested at all in the Summer Olympics since the games were in Atlanta. However, this year's Olympics has a lot of intrigue and NBC has done a great job in presentation. I've heard more buzz about this Olympic Games the past few days from friends, co-workers, media coverage, etc. than I have for the past 2 combined. The USA Basketball team, otherwise known as The Redeem Team, gets the bulk of the coverage. I think they will win the Gold easily. Kobe Bryant has shown a lot of leadership skills this year and on this team. That's what USA Basketball has been missing the past few years. All these basketball superstars really didn't have a leader and we are seeing more team basketball rather than individual agendas. I think the 2nd biggest reason for the buzz of this Olympics are the location. China is the most populated country in the world and just like real estate, location sells. Even though I don't agree with China's political agendas and really don't trust them, they have done a great job being a host country and the athletes seem happy to be competing over there.
Carolina Panthers - Final musing is about my hometown team, the Carolina Panthers. Their 1st pre-season game has come and gone. The 1st string, for those that played, looked good. Peppers looked like the old Peppers, the O-line looks like the real deal, and the Defensive Line as a whole looked better than I thought they would. Coming into this season, I thought the Defensive Line would be their weakness. I would have liked to see Delhomme play a longer series. He played mostly short series thanks to the defense. It was just the 1st pre-season game though. The Colts had a lot of key players out, including Peyton Manning, so who know if this game really gauges anything for the Panthers. A better Eagles team looms this week. Let's see if we see promise again this week or if we got the classic Carolina Panthers tease.
Favre - I don't think there was a winner or loser from the Packers-Favre divorce. The Green Bay Packers obviously wanted to move on. Truthfully, I don't blame them. Favre has held them hostage for the past few years. The Packers were ready to move on. I think they were very frustrated. They couldn't plan for their draft, look at potential free agents, and juggle the salary cap because of Favre's waffling the past few years. Favre finally announced he was retiring. The Packers moved on. They drafted Brian Brohm in the second round in case Aaron Rodgers doesn't work out. When Favre changed his mind, AGAIN, the Packers had enough. I really think if Favre would have told them, yes, he was coming back initially, the Packers would have been satisfied and would have accepted him. They could have used their 2nd round draft pick on a position need. Obviously, any team would rather have Favre than Aaron Rodgers, but the Packers felt they were being held hostage. Thompson and McCarthy were satisfied with Rodger's progress and felt satisfied with their team without Favre. I'm not going to question the Packers for this decision. McCarthy and Thompson have been good the past few years in judging young talent. They developed a lot of young players last year and their future looks bright. Grant, Jennings, Hawk all were very young players that contributed heavily to the Packers success last year. I still think they will win the NFC Central this year.
As for Favre and the Jets, this made them from who cares to somewhat interesting. They will definitely be better than 4-12 from last year. They made a lot of FA signings and have drafted well the past 2 years. Favre is an upgrade, but not as significant as a lot of the experts are saying. Sure, he may add a few wins this year. Realistically, how many more years does he have left. Would they be better in letting Kellen Clemens develop or take a flyer on 1 year, 2 max, with Favre? I think this team is a 9-7 team at best. Problem is, this doesn't get you into the playoffs in the AFC. Favre will bring them publicity and excitement temporarily. However, I think the Packers are still in a better situation this year.
Summer Olympics - I really haven't been interested at all in the Summer Olympics since the games were in Atlanta. However, this year's Olympics has a lot of intrigue and NBC has done a great job in presentation. I've heard more buzz about this Olympic Games the past few days from friends, co-workers, media coverage, etc. than I have for the past 2 combined. The USA Basketball team, otherwise known as The Redeem Team, gets the bulk of the coverage. I think they will win the Gold easily. Kobe Bryant has shown a lot of leadership skills this year and on this team. That's what USA Basketball has been missing the past few years. All these basketball superstars really didn't have a leader and we are seeing more team basketball rather than individual agendas. I think the 2nd biggest reason for the buzz of this Olympics are the location. China is the most populated country in the world and just like real estate, location sells. Even though I don't agree with China's political agendas and really don't trust them, they have done a great job being a host country and the athletes seem happy to be competing over there.
Carolina Panthers - Final musing is about my hometown team, the Carolina Panthers. Their 1st pre-season game has come and gone. The 1st string, for those that played, looked good. Peppers looked like the old Peppers, the O-line looks like the real deal, and the Defensive Line as a whole looked better than I thought they would. Coming into this season, I thought the Defensive Line would be their weakness. I would have liked to see Delhomme play a longer series. He played mostly short series thanks to the defense. It was just the 1st pre-season game though. The Colts had a lot of key players out, including Peyton Manning, so who know if this game really gauges anything for the Panthers. A better Eagles team looms this week. Let's see if we see promise again this week or if we got the classic Carolina Panthers tease.
Tuesday, August 5, 2008
Fantasy Football Draft Board
It's almost time for fantasy football. The first thing is the fantasy draft. I'm in like 6 leagues. How will I keep up with them with a baby on the way? I don't know, but we will see. Of course you should draft base on your league scoring and settings. My rankings are your basic rankings.
A lot of publications have their fantasy rankings now. I have my own set of rankings. I think this year will be one of the toughest years to draft. I don't think you should follow fantasy rule #1, which is value RB's the most. There are too many mediocre backs and teams are starting to use the 2 back system wisely. This is my philosophy and I almost always profit in my fantasy leagues with this philosophy. I'd rather have QB's or WR that I know will put up numbers than have RB's that could potentially put up great numbers, but have lots of question marks.
I'm only going to rank my Top 24 players. That should get you through the 1st 2 rounds.
1. LaDainian Tomlinson - Still #1, although not by the wide margin he's been in years past. Also, not 100% confident he will be one of the top players at the end of the season. Injuries may finally catch up to him this year.
2. Adrian Peterson - Potential to put up monster numbers. Showed last year how explosive he could be. However, his running style is prone for an injury. If you're in a keeper league, I would rank AP ahead of LT. Otherwise, I'm comfortable ranking LT then AP.
3. Brian Westbrook - Finally had a healthy year last year and his fantasy numbers showed it. A very versatile back. May not have the rushing numbers LT and AP has, but will boost his numbers in the West Coast offense with lots of receiving yards.
4. Tom Brady - Put up monster numbers last year. Probably one of the greatest QB numbers of all time. He carried a lot of fantasy teams by himself last year. Probably won't have the numbers like last year, but should still put up great numbers. Patriots play in a weak division, still has lots of weapons, and the Pats may have more to proove with their Super Bowl loss last year.
5. Joseph Addai - This is where I see the first slight drop off in player value. I like Addai and his production but he's also suffered injuries some. Also, it seems the Colts defense has gotten a lot more conservative the past few years. However, with Peyton Manning as his QB, his still one of the most dangerous back.
6. Tony Romo - This is where my philosophy probably doesn't coincide with the experts or differ from the expert fantasy sites. Romo put up monster numbers some games and carried a lot of teams last year. Unlike Brady, Romo was probably drafted rounds 4-6 last year and owners got lots of value because he definitely had 1st round numbers. He still has all of his weapons and it helps when your offensive coordinator has the freedom to call whatever he wants and is a former QB.
7. Steven Jackson - Even if he wasn't holding out right now, I would still have him ranked at this position. A lot of boards has him 4th or 5th. My concern with SJax is his weak offensive line. Also, Bulger seems to be on the decline. I like the way SJax plays. I can see him getting the yards, however, I don't see the TD's from him to boost his value.
8. Marion Barber III - Finally he is a #1 back, and about 2 years too late. He's always been a TD beast. However, the Cowboys philosophy is to split carries. Case in point with them drafting Felix Jones in the 1st round.
9. Peyton Manning - His surgery in the off-season had no effect on my ranking with him. Like I said earlier, it seems the Colts offense has gotten more conservative. Marvin Harrison is on the decline. Colts defense is good now, so they don't need their offense to put up big numbers. His consistency is too good to pass up at this position.
10. Randy Moss - He's really come full circle. Just when you think he's done, he comes back. Much thanks to Tom Brady though. He had outstanding numbers last year. I don't think he will match it this year, but the Brady-Moss combo is the most lethal combo in the NFL.
11. Terrell Owens - The Romo-TO combo is the 2nd best combo in the NFL. The league has gotten pass happy and the rules are more geared towards the passing game nowadays. Having Randy Moss and TO ranked this high is probably not the classic philosophy.
12. Larry Johnson - This point of the draft is the toughest part to rank. There a lot of RB's that you could potentially rank at this spot. Draw picks 12 thru 15 in a hat and you would probably have as much skill as ranking yourself. I put LJ at this spot because I think an early nagging injury kept his production down last year. He should be 100% this year and we could perhaps see the LJ of old and get value at this spot. Even though KC still has QB problems, LJ is still the man in KC.
13. Clinton Portis - Portis is the anomaly back that you think is going to be a beast and have a monster year, but it never happens. He had the beast year in Denver and never came close to match it. The year he busted loose in Denver, he wasn't highly ranked. Seems every year since, owners draft him too high thinking he will do it again. Washington's scheme is very conservative and they've never been consistent at QB. This year may be a little different with Campbell giving them some stability.
14. Reggie Wayne - I have 3 QB's in the 1st round. Their #1 target each should be highly valued. Harrison seems to be on the decline. Wayne has been very consistent and even when he was #2 to Harrison, he put up #1 numbers. This slot is usually a 2nd round slot. If you drafted a QB or WR with your 1st round pick, I'd consider taking the next highest RB instead and sliding Wayne down. If you picked an RB with your 1st round pick, I think Wayne is the best pick here.
15. Frank Gore - I have Gore ranked a lot lower than most of the experts. He put up great numbers 2 years ago. Last year, he slipped a bit and was very inconsistent. This was mainly due to the inconsistent QB play. Mike Martz is there now, so maybe they will get more offensive consistency. However, consistency starts at QB.
16. Marshawn Lynch - As a rookie last year, he showed he had great potential. He was the main man in Buffalo early in the season, which is tough for a rookie. Let's see how he does knowing he will be the man this year. Buffalo at times show they can play with the big boys, but then they lose by 35 to the Patriots and practically give a game to the Giants last year. Cold weather backs are tough to rank as they usually slide in the 2nd half of the year.
17. Ryan Grant - Didn't get a lot of accolades last year, but earned the starting job. With Aaron Rodgers at QB now, he could see a lot of stacked lines. However, I think the Packers have too many great receiver for teams to do this. Grant will get his. I think at most all he will ever be is a 2nd round fantasy back.
18. Willis McGahee - Baltimore's pourous offense doesn't do McGahee justice. Put him on a good team, I think he's a first rounder. I am very wary to put him at this high. If you took an RB in the 1st round, I'd probably take a WR at this slot.
19. Braylon Edwards - Edwards showed he was a premier receiver last year. He always had been, he just need a QB to get him the ball.
20. TJ Houshmanzadeh - This is the year Housh surpasses Chad Johnson. I think Palmer and the Bengals realize Housh is the man and is tired of Chad Johnson's antics. Production wise, he has more yards per reception than CJ. With him getting more looks than CJ this year, I can see him being a top tier receiver in the league.
21. Andre Johnson - If AJ wouldn't have gotten hurt last year, he would have been a top 5 receiver last year. His points per game was up there. Matt Schaub gave them a little more consistent play at QB last year. Even when David Carr was there, he still put up decent numbers. We all know how awful Carr is.
22. Larry Fitzgerald - I know a lot of boards have Fitz ranked ahead of AJ, Housh, and maybe even Edwards. I just don't like the fact Arizona was talking about trading him in the off-season. Arizona is going more towards the conservative approach with their coach's Pittsburgh Steelers philosophy.
23. Jamal Lewis - He had been a bust for so many years, he finally had a comeback season last year. It's hard to trust drafting him. However, Cleveland has too many offensive weapons to not rank him here.
24. Maurice Jones Drew - If he can ever get the bulk of carries in Jacksonville, he can put up good numbers. He's always gotten a good number of TD's considering he doesn't get the bulk of carries. His size has always been the worry for everyone, but he plays hard and has a great attitude.
Here are the best of the rest which may not be ranked as high, but can potentially have the numbers:
Reggie Bush - More weapons in NO (Shockey) should mean more offensive numbers for that offense. Their schedule is not very tough either.
Drew Brees - See above with more weapons in NO.
Darren McFadden - May be worth overdrafting in a keeper league. Downside is Oakland is still in chaos.
Calvin Johnson - Receivers seem to break out in year 2. Why not take a flyer on the best rookie receiver from last year.
When my big money fantasy drafts, I'll will post my draft picks.
A lot of publications have their fantasy rankings now. I have my own set of rankings. I think this year will be one of the toughest years to draft. I don't think you should follow fantasy rule #1, which is value RB's the most. There are too many mediocre backs and teams are starting to use the 2 back system wisely. This is my philosophy and I almost always profit in my fantasy leagues with this philosophy. I'd rather have QB's or WR that I know will put up numbers than have RB's that could potentially put up great numbers, but have lots of question marks.
I'm only going to rank my Top 24 players. That should get you through the 1st 2 rounds.
1. LaDainian Tomlinson - Still #1, although not by the wide margin he's been in years past. Also, not 100% confident he will be one of the top players at the end of the season. Injuries may finally catch up to him this year.
2. Adrian Peterson - Potential to put up monster numbers. Showed last year how explosive he could be. However, his running style is prone for an injury. If you're in a keeper league, I would rank AP ahead of LT. Otherwise, I'm comfortable ranking LT then AP.
3. Brian Westbrook - Finally had a healthy year last year and his fantasy numbers showed it. A very versatile back. May not have the rushing numbers LT and AP has, but will boost his numbers in the West Coast offense with lots of receiving yards.
4. Tom Brady - Put up monster numbers last year. Probably one of the greatest QB numbers of all time. He carried a lot of fantasy teams by himself last year. Probably won't have the numbers like last year, but should still put up great numbers. Patriots play in a weak division, still has lots of weapons, and the Pats may have more to proove with their Super Bowl loss last year.
5. Joseph Addai - This is where I see the first slight drop off in player value. I like Addai and his production but he's also suffered injuries some. Also, it seems the Colts defense has gotten a lot more conservative the past few years. However, with Peyton Manning as his QB, his still one of the most dangerous back.
6. Tony Romo - This is where my philosophy probably doesn't coincide with the experts or differ from the expert fantasy sites. Romo put up monster numbers some games and carried a lot of teams last year. Unlike Brady, Romo was probably drafted rounds 4-6 last year and owners got lots of value because he definitely had 1st round numbers. He still has all of his weapons and it helps when your offensive coordinator has the freedom to call whatever he wants and is a former QB.
7. Steven Jackson - Even if he wasn't holding out right now, I would still have him ranked at this position. A lot of boards has him 4th or 5th. My concern with SJax is his weak offensive line. Also, Bulger seems to be on the decline. I like the way SJax plays. I can see him getting the yards, however, I don't see the TD's from him to boost his value.
8. Marion Barber III - Finally he is a #1 back, and about 2 years too late. He's always been a TD beast. However, the Cowboys philosophy is to split carries. Case in point with them drafting Felix Jones in the 1st round.
9. Peyton Manning - His surgery in the off-season had no effect on my ranking with him. Like I said earlier, it seems the Colts offense has gotten more conservative. Marvin Harrison is on the decline. Colts defense is good now, so they don't need their offense to put up big numbers. His consistency is too good to pass up at this position.
10. Randy Moss - He's really come full circle. Just when you think he's done, he comes back. Much thanks to Tom Brady though. He had outstanding numbers last year. I don't think he will match it this year, but the Brady-Moss combo is the most lethal combo in the NFL.
11. Terrell Owens - The Romo-TO combo is the 2nd best combo in the NFL. The league has gotten pass happy and the rules are more geared towards the passing game nowadays. Having Randy Moss and TO ranked this high is probably not the classic philosophy.
12. Larry Johnson - This point of the draft is the toughest part to rank. There a lot of RB's that you could potentially rank at this spot. Draw picks 12 thru 15 in a hat and you would probably have as much skill as ranking yourself. I put LJ at this spot because I think an early nagging injury kept his production down last year. He should be 100% this year and we could perhaps see the LJ of old and get value at this spot. Even though KC still has QB problems, LJ is still the man in KC.
13. Clinton Portis - Portis is the anomaly back that you think is going to be a beast and have a monster year, but it never happens. He had the beast year in Denver and never came close to match it. The year he busted loose in Denver, he wasn't highly ranked. Seems every year since, owners draft him too high thinking he will do it again. Washington's scheme is very conservative and they've never been consistent at QB. This year may be a little different with Campbell giving them some stability.
14. Reggie Wayne - I have 3 QB's in the 1st round. Their #1 target each should be highly valued. Harrison seems to be on the decline. Wayne has been very consistent and even when he was #2 to Harrison, he put up #1 numbers. This slot is usually a 2nd round slot. If you drafted a QB or WR with your 1st round pick, I'd consider taking the next highest RB instead and sliding Wayne down. If you picked an RB with your 1st round pick, I think Wayne is the best pick here.
15. Frank Gore - I have Gore ranked a lot lower than most of the experts. He put up great numbers 2 years ago. Last year, he slipped a bit and was very inconsistent. This was mainly due to the inconsistent QB play. Mike Martz is there now, so maybe they will get more offensive consistency. However, consistency starts at QB.
16. Marshawn Lynch - As a rookie last year, he showed he had great potential. He was the main man in Buffalo early in the season, which is tough for a rookie. Let's see how he does knowing he will be the man this year. Buffalo at times show they can play with the big boys, but then they lose by 35 to the Patriots and practically give a game to the Giants last year. Cold weather backs are tough to rank as they usually slide in the 2nd half of the year.
17. Ryan Grant - Didn't get a lot of accolades last year, but earned the starting job. With Aaron Rodgers at QB now, he could see a lot of stacked lines. However, I think the Packers have too many great receiver for teams to do this. Grant will get his. I think at most all he will ever be is a 2nd round fantasy back.
18. Willis McGahee - Baltimore's pourous offense doesn't do McGahee justice. Put him on a good team, I think he's a first rounder. I am very wary to put him at this high. If you took an RB in the 1st round, I'd probably take a WR at this slot.
19. Braylon Edwards - Edwards showed he was a premier receiver last year. He always had been, he just need a QB to get him the ball.
20. TJ Houshmanzadeh - This is the year Housh surpasses Chad Johnson. I think Palmer and the Bengals realize Housh is the man and is tired of Chad Johnson's antics. Production wise, he has more yards per reception than CJ. With him getting more looks than CJ this year, I can see him being a top tier receiver in the league.
21. Andre Johnson - If AJ wouldn't have gotten hurt last year, he would have been a top 5 receiver last year. His points per game was up there. Matt Schaub gave them a little more consistent play at QB last year. Even when David Carr was there, he still put up decent numbers. We all know how awful Carr is.
22. Larry Fitzgerald - I know a lot of boards have Fitz ranked ahead of AJ, Housh, and maybe even Edwards. I just don't like the fact Arizona was talking about trading him in the off-season. Arizona is going more towards the conservative approach with their coach's Pittsburgh Steelers philosophy.
23. Jamal Lewis - He had been a bust for so many years, he finally had a comeback season last year. It's hard to trust drafting him. However, Cleveland has too many offensive weapons to not rank him here.
24. Maurice Jones Drew - If he can ever get the bulk of carries in Jacksonville, he can put up good numbers. He's always gotten a good number of TD's considering he doesn't get the bulk of carries. His size has always been the worry for everyone, but he plays hard and has a great attitude.
Here are the best of the rest which may not be ranked as high, but can potentially have the numbers:
Reggie Bush - More weapons in NO (Shockey) should mean more offensive numbers for that offense. Their schedule is not very tough either.
Drew Brees - See above with more weapons in NO.
Darren McFadden - May be worth overdrafting in a keeper league. Downside is Oakland is still in chaos.
Calvin Johnson - Receivers seem to break out in year 2. Why not take a flyer on the best rookie receiver from last year.
When my big money fantasy drafts, I'll will post my draft picks.
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