Big weekend for college football, especially if you are a fan of the SEC.
LSU vs Auburn - Auburn is coming off its thrilling 3-2 victory last weekend over lowly Mississippi State. LSU hasn't been tested this year. The winner of this game should win the SEC West. I like LSU in this contest. I'm hearing all this Auburn is tough at home, Tuberville is a good big game coach, and LSU hasn't been tested. Auburn's pathetic offense will haunt them this weekend. They still have QB issues. LSU did lose some good players from last year's National Championship team. However, I think they reloaded and will have just enough firepower to come out on top. Auburn has been exposed this year and LSU will take advantage of it. First one to 10 may win this game and it will be LSU.
Florida vs Tennessee - This is my favorite matchup this weekend. Tennessee was embarrassed last year at Florida. Tennessee is a great home team. Florida struggled offensively against Miami. I think they have some Offensive Line problems. However, they had an extra week to prepare and Tebow will lead this team. Coaching-wise, I will take Urban Meyer over Phillip Fulmer anyday. May be a field goal game, but I like Florida to win. This is Florida's toughest road game. They win this game, they have a great chance to run the table.
Georgia vs Arizona State - Both teams struggled last week. The difference is Georgia won, Arizona State didn't. I think it would have been a better setup game for Georgia if AZ State wouldn't have lost last week against lowly UNLV. Now Arizona State is desperate. Georgia should get it together offensively this week. Pac-10 is not known for their defense unless you are USC. I see a big game from Moreno this game. I hope Richt doesn't get too cute with his play calling this game. Just run Moreno down their throats. Max, Georgia will win by 7. Closer than I would have pick 2-3 weeks ago.
Notre Dame vs Michigan State - Notre Dame won big against Michigan last week. ND was the benefit of a lot of turnovers. The weather played a big part last week. Michigan State is a good team at home and always plays ND well at home. Notre Dame comes back to earth this week. Michigan State by double digits.
Mississippi State vs Georgia Tech - I like Georgia Tech is scheduling out of conference with power conferences. However, I would like to see them schedule bigger named schools. If you schedule Mississippi State or Vanderbilt out of conference, your kind of saying your school is on their level. I would like to think Georgia Tech is a step above Miss State. This game is a no win game for GT. Win the game, you're supposed to win, even if it is against an SEC team. The will get no respect for winning. Lose and will hear the lower tier SEC team beats a mid to upper tier ACC team. Only way GT comes out ahead in this game is if they win big. I think they can. Mississippi State is poor offensively. Hopefully GT gets their offense in tune this game.
VT vs UNC and Wake Forest vs FSU - Big ACC matchups this weekend. I like UNC over VT. VT is way over-rated. They have no receivers. Play containment on Taylor and you should win. Their receivers can't catch the ball. This could be a turning point for UNC if they win. I like FSU over Wake Forest. FSU was my preseason pick and I'm sticking with it. This is FSU's second year under Jimbo Fisher's offense. Plus, they didn't give the reigns to Weatherford this year and wisely so. If this game was in the middle of the season, I would like Wake more, but FSU will be pumped because this is their first big game of the season.
PRO FOOTBALL
Carolina Panthers vs Minnesota Vikings - Intersting game here. Panthers are 2-0 and Vikes are 0-2. Vikings are desperate now and made a change at QB. Minnesota has the best rushing defense in the league. The Panthers get Steve Smith back at the right time. The Steve Smith incident has brought this team closer together, not torn them apart. Everyone has said and did the right things since the incident. I like the Panthers to win in the air this week. I am worried that Adrian Peterson will run wild, because the Panthers have not looked good stopping the run either week.
UPSET PICKS
College - NC State over East Carolina. NC State historically has played well against ECU. They won at ECU last year late in the season. Usually its NC State favored in this game. The roles are reversed this year. ECU survived Tulane last week and lost a key defensive player for the season. This is technically a rivalry game and most years ECU considers this game as its statement game or big game of the year. ECU is looking for bigger things now and might look past this game.
Pro - Green Bay over Dallas. If this was a regular game, I would like Dallas. However, this is a primetime game on National TV. Green Bay is already a good team and they will be more pumped for this game. For Dallas, just another day at the office as they are used to primetime. I think Dallas exhausted a lot of energy from their MNF game with Philly. Also, Dallas goes from turf to grass this game and the game won't be as fast offensively and good for GB defensively.
Friday, September 19, 2008
Thursday, September 18, 2008
Men of Troy, Cardiac Cats
What was I thinking? How could I have ever thought Ohio State could keep it close with USC? The reason I thought the way I did is, Ohio State was returning 20 of 22 starters from a team that reached the BCS Title game last year. However, deeper thinking would have made me realize Ohio State was very over-rated last year and back doored their way into the game rather than earning it. I thought they were very over-rated last year. They lack the speed and athletes of the SEC and USC. Keeping the same over-rated players from last year won't close the gap against the SECs and USCs of the world. I agree with the general public and experts. USC is by far the best team in the country. The only other team that has shown something is Oklahoma. However, I don't won't to see a USC-Oklahoma BCS title game, even though that what it looks like we are headed. I want to see USC vs an SEC team. Oklahoma got manhandled by USC years ago and Oklahoma has played poorly in BCS bowls the past few years.
I was half right with most of my predictions last week. I'm 2 for 2 in upsets in College Football so far. Maryland, a 14 point underdog last week, beat Cal. I hope from here out, when a West Coast or Pac-10 teams plays on the East Coast, they shouldn't agree on a 12 Noon start. I picked most of the winners, but not by the margins I predicted. Georgia struggled against South Carolina, Panthers had a tough time with the Bears, but a win is a win.
Georgia survived South Carolina. They probably should have lost the game. Unbelievable how many times South Carolina shot themselves in the foot. Does this mean the Georgia Bulldogs are over-rated? Probably not. South Carolina always plays Georgia tough. We'll get more of an idea if Georgia is for real this weekend against Arizona State.
Georgia Tech lost a close one to Virginia Tech. They probably should have won the game, but didn't. Virginia Tech still doesn't impress me at all. I'm a little worried about Georgia Tech though. Georgia Tech's defense is keeping them in games. I'm not sure if Paul Johnson's offense can survive against the big boys. Also, this is not the type of offense to have when you're playing from behind. Luckily, there are no big boys in the ACC. Hopefully it's the learning curve that is causing GT's offense to sputter.
The Carolina Panther, aka the Cardiac Cats, are back at it. They looked awful the 1st half on Sunday. However, the defense kept them in the game. Luckily, Chicago is not very good offensively. I think Chicago is better than most thought. Their win over Indy is not fluke and Matt Forte looks like he can carry the workload. He's a big, strong RB. He's the real deal. On the other side, Jonathan Stewart showed why the Panthers were so high on him. If he can stay healthy, he will be one of the best RBs in the NFL. Interesting they are playing Minnesota this week. Stewart and Peterson are very similar, a combination of speed and power. Stewart can and will be at Adrian Peterson's level next year if he can stay healthy. Another key is the Panthers re-built offensive line is good. Looks like the gamble with Otah on draft day will pay off. He's still a little raw, but will only get better.
What a Monday Night game. Definitely one of the best Monday Night games in a long time. I was more impressed with the Eagles than with the Cowboys. I was wrong about my assessment of the Eagles and McNabb. McNabb has looked as good as he's ever been. These are the 2 best teams in the NFC. Yes, better than the Packers and Giants. Packers are good, but not great. The Giants injuries and the loss of Osi and Strahan will eventually catch up to them. I wouldn't be surprised if Dallas chokes again this year. I just think they are not committing to the run like they should. They need to go to a more consistent ball control offense rather than a gun-slinging style offense. They will put their defense into too many holes with quick series and high turnovers. The Giants played the perfect style last year. Ball control, consistent, commit to the run, etc. Even the year the Colts won the Super Bowl, they didn't get into the high scoring shootouts they were accustomed to in previous years.
Just a quick comment on the Denver-San Diego game. San Diego got jobbed. If the ref wanted to make up for it, he should have called a holding penalty or something the next play against Denver. There is such a thing as a make-up call. Just shows you the ref cared more about his ego than doing the right thing. I've ref'd football and basketball before. You can practically make a case for holding almost every play in the NFL, just like you can practically call a foul almost every play in basketball.
I was half right with most of my predictions last week. I'm 2 for 2 in upsets in College Football so far. Maryland, a 14 point underdog last week, beat Cal. I hope from here out, when a West Coast or Pac-10 teams plays on the East Coast, they shouldn't agree on a 12 Noon start. I picked most of the winners, but not by the margins I predicted. Georgia struggled against South Carolina, Panthers had a tough time with the Bears, but a win is a win.
Georgia survived South Carolina. They probably should have lost the game. Unbelievable how many times South Carolina shot themselves in the foot. Does this mean the Georgia Bulldogs are over-rated? Probably not. South Carolina always plays Georgia tough. We'll get more of an idea if Georgia is for real this weekend against Arizona State.
Georgia Tech lost a close one to Virginia Tech. They probably should have won the game, but didn't. Virginia Tech still doesn't impress me at all. I'm a little worried about Georgia Tech though. Georgia Tech's defense is keeping them in games. I'm not sure if Paul Johnson's offense can survive against the big boys. Also, this is not the type of offense to have when you're playing from behind. Luckily, there are no big boys in the ACC. Hopefully it's the learning curve that is causing GT's offense to sputter.
The Carolina Panther, aka the Cardiac Cats, are back at it. They looked awful the 1st half on Sunday. However, the defense kept them in the game. Luckily, Chicago is not very good offensively. I think Chicago is better than most thought. Their win over Indy is not fluke and Matt Forte looks like he can carry the workload. He's a big, strong RB. He's the real deal. On the other side, Jonathan Stewart showed why the Panthers were so high on him. If he can stay healthy, he will be one of the best RBs in the NFL. Interesting they are playing Minnesota this week. Stewart and Peterson are very similar, a combination of speed and power. Stewart can and will be at Adrian Peterson's level next year if he can stay healthy. Another key is the Panthers re-built offensive line is good. Looks like the gamble with Otah on draft day will pay off. He's still a little raw, but will only get better.
What a Monday Night game. Definitely one of the best Monday Night games in a long time. I was more impressed with the Eagles than with the Cowboys. I was wrong about my assessment of the Eagles and McNabb. McNabb has looked as good as he's ever been. These are the 2 best teams in the NFC. Yes, better than the Packers and Giants. Packers are good, but not great. The Giants injuries and the loss of Osi and Strahan will eventually catch up to them. I wouldn't be surprised if Dallas chokes again this year. I just think they are not committing to the run like they should. They need to go to a more consistent ball control offense rather than a gun-slinging style offense. They will put their defense into too many holes with quick series and high turnovers. The Giants played the perfect style last year. Ball control, consistent, commit to the run, etc. Even the year the Colts won the Super Bowl, they didn't get into the high scoring shootouts they were accustomed to in previous years.
Just a quick comment on the Denver-San Diego game. San Diego got jobbed. If the ref wanted to make up for it, he should have called a holding penalty or something the next play against Denver. There is such a thing as a make-up call. Just shows you the ref cared more about his ego than doing the right thing. I've ref'd football and basketball before. You can practically make a case for holding almost every play in the NFL, just like you can practically call a foul almost every play in basketball.
Thursday, September 11, 2008
Weekend Predictions - 9/12/2008
Big upcoming weekend for college football. Of course USC vs Ohio State is dominating the slate. Locally, UGA plays at South Carolina, Georgia Tech plays at Virginia Tech, and some other interesting games such as Michigan at Notre Dame and Wisconsin at Fresno State.
Ohio State at USC - I predicted Ohio State to win this game before the season started. Even with their best offensive player most likely out, I still think they have a great shot. USC did look good their first game, but it was against a hapless UVA team. Ohio State struggled against Ohio, so all signs are pointing to a USC blowout. I see Ohio State's defense stepping up. However, I worry about Ohio State's offense. It will have to be a game in the 20's if Ohio State wins. USC will score some. However, it always seems in a close game, USC always does some stupid trick play or gets too fancy that will end up costing them. Pete Carroll gets too much credit for his coaching. He gambles too much, too cocky at times, and a lot of times bites him in these big games, ala Texas, and panic against Stanford last year. I hate to waffle on my prediction, but with Ohio State's best player out, I can change my mind. Prediction: USC 24 Ohio State 20
Georgia at South Carolina - Georgia hasn't played anybody real yet and South Carolina lost to an inferior Vanderbilt team. I don't think Steve Spurrier has lost his touch. He just doesn't have the talent he had at Florida. Georgia is loaded. Historically, South Carolina has played Georgia tough. The road team has won the past 2 years. I see it different this year. Georgia has a lot of swagger and confidence while South Carolina is still trying to find their identity. Their offense has not looked good either of the first 2 weeks. Their defense has look respectable. I see UGA winning this one easily by at least 2 TD.
Prediction: Georgia 31 South Carolina 17
Georgia Tech at Virginia Tech - I'm not going to make a prediction for this game but I will give my thoughts on the game. I watched all of the Georgia Tech - Boston College game last week. I was impressed with Georgia Tech. They made a lot of mistakes and fumbled the ball more than I would like, but it's a learning curve. Georgia Tech's defense is very good. Paul Johnson's offense will work at this level. Keep an eye on Michael Johnson, Defensive End. He's like a Power Forward playing football. A little slender for a DE, but reminds me of Jason Taylor. Virginia Tech struggled against Furman last week, which is not a good sign for them. The big advantage for VT is Georgia Tech has to travel 2 weeks in a row against 2 tough opponents.
Other Predictions: I like Notre Dame over Michigan. Both teams aren't very good, but ND is at home and has better QB play. Notre Dame's defense will be a lot better this year. Jon Tenuta is their new Defensive Coordinator and he will blitz a lot, which doesn't bode well for inconsistent QB's.
Wisconsin at Fresno State: Interesting matchup. Wisconsin likes to run, run, run. I initially liked Fresno State, but I'm not sure if they can matchup physically with Wisconsin. Slight lean to Wisconsin.
Upset of the week: Not much to choose from this week. Let's see if I can follow up my ECU pick last week. I'm going to go with Maryland over Cal. Maryland lost to Middle Tennessee State and struggled with Deleware, so not much logic in picking them. Maryland historically plays to the level of their opponents and they are at home. A West Coast team traveling to the East Coast to play a 12 Noon game struggles a lot of times. Cal is relatively young and struggled down the stretch last year with a better team. Cal is a little over-rated.
NFL Football - I can't believe all the hype and bandwagon jumping I'm seeing after one week. This is the fallout from the Brady injury. A lot of people are jumping on the Steelers right now. Let's not forget all they did was beat Houston. Yes, they dominated, but do it against a credible opponent, then jump on their bandwagon. Chicago is getting a lot of accolades for beating the Colts. Yes, they played very well and they were on the road. Let's not forget the Colts were without 2 of their starting Offensive Lineman and Peyton Manning didn't see any preseason action. They still have Kyle Orton at QB, a mid-level rookie at RB, and Wide Receivers no one can name. They'll be lucky to win 6 games this year.
Carolina Panthers - I think the Panthers beat the Bears by 7-10 points at least this week. Historically the Panthers do not play very well at home. However, I think this Panthers team is different. They are riding an emotional high from their last game, I see more intensity and fire in this team that I haven't seen since their Super Bowl season. The Panthers running game will be on display this week.
Upset of the week - A lot of small lines this Sunday, so a lot of upset picks really can't be considered an upset. I'm going to go with Cleveland over Pittsburgh. This is a division rivalry, Cleveland is at home, the game is on Prime Time (NBC), and Cleveland needs it more.
Ohio State at USC - I predicted Ohio State to win this game before the season started. Even with their best offensive player most likely out, I still think they have a great shot. USC did look good their first game, but it was against a hapless UVA team. Ohio State struggled against Ohio, so all signs are pointing to a USC blowout. I see Ohio State's defense stepping up. However, I worry about Ohio State's offense. It will have to be a game in the 20's if Ohio State wins. USC will score some. However, it always seems in a close game, USC always does some stupid trick play or gets too fancy that will end up costing them. Pete Carroll gets too much credit for his coaching. He gambles too much, too cocky at times, and a lot of times bites him in these big games, ala Texas, and panic against Stanford last year. I hate to waffle on my prediction, but with Ohio State's best player out, I can change my mind. Prediction: USC 24 Ohio State 20
Georgia at South Carolina - Georgia hasn't played anybody real yet and South Carolina lost to an inferior Vanderbilt team. I don't think Steve Spurrier has lost his touch. He just doesn't have the talent he had at Florida. Georgia is loaded. Historically, South Carolina has played Georgia tough. The road team has won the past 2 years. I see it different this year. Georgia has a lot of swagger and confidence while South Carolina is still trying to find their identity. Their offense has not looked good either of the first 2 weeks. Their defense has look respectable. I see UGA winning this one easily by at least 2 TD.
Prediction: Georgia 31 South Carolina 17
Georgia Tech at Virginia Tech - I'm not going to make a prediction for this game but I will give my thoughts on the game. I watched all of the Georgia Tech - Boston College game last week. I was impressed with Georgia Tech. They made a lot of mistakes and fumbled the ball more than I would like, but it's a learning curve. Georgia Tech's defense is very good. Paul Johnson's offense will work at this level. Keep an eye on Michael Johnson, Defensive End. He's like a Power Forward playing football. A little slender for a DE, but reminds me of Jason Taylor. Virginia Tech struggled against Furman last week, which is not a good sign for them. The big advantage for VT is Georgia Tech has to travel 2 weeks in a row against 2 tough opponents.
Other Predictions: I like Notre Dame over Michigan. Both teams aren't very good, but ND is at home and has better QB play. Notre Dame's defense will be a lot better this year. Jon Tenuta is their new Defensive Coordinator and he will blitz a lot, which doesn't bode well for inconsistent QB's.
Wisconsin at Fresno State: Interesting matchup. Wisconsin likes to run, run, run. I initially liked Fresno State, but I'm not sure if they can matchup physically with Wisconsin. Slight lean to Wisconsin.
Upset of the week: Not much to choose from this week. Let's see if I can follow up my ECU pick last week. I'm going to go with Maryland over Cal. Maryland lost to Middle Tennessee State and struggled with Deleware, so not much logic in picking them. Maryland historically plays to the level of their opponents and they are at home. A West Coast team traveling to the East Coast to play a 12 Noon game struggles a lot of times. Cal is relatively young and struggled down the stretch last year with a better team. Cal is a little over-rated.
NFL Football - I can't believe all the hype and bandwagon jumping I'm seeing after one week. This is the fallout from the Brady injury. A lot of people are jumping on the Steelers right now. Let's not forget all they did was beat Houston. Yes, they dominated, but do it against a credible opponent, then jump on their bandwagon. Chicago is getting a lot of accolades for beating the Colts. Yes, they played very well and they were on the road. Let's not forget the Colts were without 2 of their starting Offensive Lineman and Peyton Manning didn't see any preseason action. They still have Kyle Orton at QB, a mid-level rookie at RB, and Wide Receivers no one can name. They'll be lucky to win 6 games this year.
Carolina Panthers - I think the Panthers beat the Bears by 7-10 points at least this week. Historically the Panthers do not play very well at home. However, I think this Panthers team is different. They are riding an emotional high from their last game, I see more intensity and fire in this team that I haven't seen since their Super Bowl season. The Panthers running game will be on display this week.
Upset of the week - A lot of small lines this Sunday, so a lot of upset picks really can't be considered an upset. I'm going to go with Cleveland over Pittsburgh. This is a division rivalry, Cleveland is at home, the game is on Prime Time (NBC), and Cleveland needs it more.
Down Goes Brady and WVU. Miracle in San Diego.
College - Ohio State struggled against lowly Ohio. Classic case of looking ahead. Now it seems all of sudden everyone is predicting they have no chance against USC. With Beanie Wells most likely out, it's going to be even tougher now. I think they still have a good chance. They still have a great defense and Tressel is one of the best coaches in the country. Ohio State will be ready.
East Carolina pulled off the upset of WVU. My upset prediction came through. ECU has a good chance to run the table. The bigger question will be which big time program will Skip Holtz be coaching next year?
Pro - Of course the big news is Tom Brady's injury. Very unfortunate. Hate to see that happen to anyone, especially the caliber of player Brady is. This leaves the AFC wide open now. Matt Cassel is not going to be able to lead this team to the promiseland. Belichick's stubborness of not having a veteran backup comes back an bite him. Everyone now is jumping aboard the Steeler's bandwagon after one game. Jacksonville was my #2 team in the AFC before Brady's injury, so I will now elevate them to #1 in the AFC. Yes, they lost this past Sunday, but it was a road rivalry game. The Cowboys are now the Super Bowl favorites and rightfully so.
Carolina Panthers - Tremendous victory for the Panthers over the weekend. Probably the the 4th best victory in franchise history (1 - Defeated Eagles to go to Super Bowl. 2 - Defeated Rams in OT to get to NFC Championship game. 3 - Defeated Cowboys at home in 1997 to reach NFC Title game). The Panthers are going to be force in the NFC if they can stay healthy. I saw some inefficiencies such as poor red zone offense and poor play calling, but nothing that can't be fixed. Steve Smith back in week 3. Jonathan Stewart and Jeff Otah has greatly improved this team. The defense isn't a force like it once was, but they are playing as a unit and have a lot of versatility with their players and schemes.
East Carolina pulled off the upset of WVU. My upset prediction came through. ECU has a good chance to run the table. The bigger question will be which big time program will Skip Holtz be coaching next year?
Pro - Of course the big news is Tom Brady's injury. Very unfortunate. Hate to see that happen to anyone, especially the caliber of player Brady is. This leaves the AFC wide open now. Matt Cassel is not going to be able to lead this team to the promiseland. Belichick's stubborness of not having a veteran backup comes back an bite him. Everyone now is jumping aboard the Steeler's bandwagon after one game. Jacksonville was my #2 team in the AFC before Brady's injury, so I will now elevate them to #1 in the AFC. Yes, they lost this past Sunday, but it was a road rivalry game. The Cowboys are now the Super Bowl favorites and rightfully so.
Carolina Panthers - Tremendous victory for the Panthers over the weekend. Probably the the 4th best victory in franchise history (1 - Defeated Eagles to go to Super Bowl. 2 - Defeated Rams in OT to get to NFC Championship game. 3 - Defeated Cowboys at home in 1997 to reach NFC Title game). The Panthers are going to be force in the NFC if they can stay healthy. I saw some inefficiencies such as poor red zone offense and poor play calling, but nothing that can't be fixed. Steve Smith back in week 3. Jonathan Stewart and Jeff Otah has greatly improved this team. The defense isn't a force like it once was, but they are playing as a unit and have a lot of versatility with their players and schemes.
Friday, September 5, 2008
Weekend Preview - 9/5/2008
The weekend got off with an early start last night. The NY Giants dominated the 1st half last night and hung on in the second half. The Redskins continued their preseason hangover. Vanderbilt shocked South Carolina. Like I said last earlier in the week, the Gamecocks did not impress me last week, even though they won 34-0.
Here are some weekend predictions:
The Panthers travel to San Diego this Sunday. I'm not picking the Panthers to win, but I think it will be close. Historically under the John Fox era, the Panthers play season openers on the road a lot better than they do at home. Granted they've never opened with an opponent the caliber of San Diego, but I think San Diego wins by 4 or less, not the double digits a lot of the experts predict.
Georgia Tech has their 1st real test of the year when they travel to Boston College. This will be the 1st big test to see how Paul Johnson's offense works against the big boys. BC's strenghth in their defense is stopping the run, where they were one of the top teams in the country. GT's strength this year, will be their defense, not their offense. GT has 2 potential 1st round draft picks on the D-Line. I predict a low scoring affair. BC comes out on top though.
Not much of a big slate in College Football this weekend. A lot of good games next weekend. The game that interests me the most is Florida-Miami. Miami has historically played Florida tough and has won most of the time. However, the game is at the swamp, Miami is young with an inexperienced QB, and Florida is primed and ready to go. Even though I still don't trust the Gator defense, they should have no problem with this young Miami team.
I'm going to start picking an upset special every Friday for college and pro.
College: Not a good slate to pick upsets this weekend. However, I think East Carolina can knock of West Virginia. The Pirates have a good defense and are sky high off their win over Virginia Tech. WVU gave up more points than I though they would against Villanova and gave up a ton of yards.
Pro: I initially said Buffalo over Seattle, but I'm not sure if that would be considered an upset. I'm going to go with Atlanta over Detroit. How often has Detroit ever been favored on the road? Everyone is counting Atlanta out this season. However, if they do win this game, it will be one of the few they do win. Atlanta will rely more on Michael Turner than Matt Ryan. Detroit lost their best defensive lineman in the off-season. The Lions have a lot of offensive weapons. Atlanta's defense will have to get into bend but don't break mode.
Here are some weekend predictions:
The Panthers travel to San Diego this Sunday. I'm not picking the Panthers to win, but I think it will be close. Historically under the John Fox era, the Panthers play season openers on the road a lot better than they do at home. Granted they've never opened with an opponent the caliber of San Diego, but I think San Diego wins by 4 or less, not the double digits a lot of the experts predict.
Georgia Tech has their 1st real test of the year when they travel to Boston College. This will be the 1st big test to see how Paul Johnson's offense works against the big boys. BC's strenghth in their defense is stopping the run, where they were one of the top teams in the country. GT's strength this year, will be their defense, not their offense. GT has 2 potential 1st round draft picks on the D-Line. I predict a low scoring affair. BC comes out on top though.
Not much of a big slate in College Football this weekend. A lot of good games next weekend. The game that interests me the most is Florida-Miami. Miami has historically played Florida tough and has won most of the time. However, the game is at the swamp, Miami is young with an inexperienced QB, and Florida is primed and ready to go. Even though I still don't trust the Gator defense, they should have no problem with this young Miami team.
I'm going to start picking an upset special every Friday for college and pro.
College: Not a good slate to pick upsets this weekend. However, I think East Carolina can knock of West Virginia. The Pirates have a good defense and are sky high off their win over Virginia Tech. WVU gave up more points than I though they would against Villanova and gave up a ton of yards.
Pro: I initially said Buffalo over Seattle, but I'm not sure if that would be considered an upset. I'm going to go with Atlanta over Detroit. How often has Detroit ever been favored on the road? Everyone is counting Atlanta out this season. However, if they do win this game, it will be one of the few they do win. Atlanta will rely more on Michael Turner than Matt Ryan. Detroit lost their best defensive lineman in the off-season. The Lions have a lot of offensive weapons. Atlanta's defense will have to get into bend but don't break mode.
Wednesday, September 3, 2008
NFL Predictions
The NFL season is almost upon us. For the 1st time in a long time, I'm more excited about the NFL season than I am about the College Football Season. I don't think we will see domination in the league like the Patriots did last year, until they got to the Super Bowl. I think it will be more wide open than most experts think. However, I'm going with the glamour pick for the Super Bowl: New England Patriots over Dallas Cowboys
My sleeper picks are the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Green Bay Packers.
Here are my division breakdowns.
NFC South: 1. Carolina 2. New Orleans 3. Tampa Bay 4. Atlanta
I guess you can call this a homer pick for me. Initially, I liked the Saints over the Panthers, but breaking down the preseason and schedules, I went with the Panthers. I've been good with my predictions for the Panthers the past few years. I thought they were over-rated last year and thought they were very under-rated during their Super Bowl run. They won't be a Super Bowl team this year, but they will be good. They made a lot of right moves in the off-season. If Peppers can get some help on the D-Line, their Defense will be one of the tops in the league again. I think they will have the best Linebacker corp in the NFL. Most favorably, looking at their schedule, it's one of the easiest schedules in the league. The Saints have a tougher schedule than the rest of the division. Tough road games. Tampa is getting old fast and it will show this year. Atlanta is rebuilding.
NFC East: 1. Dallas 2. NY Giants 3. Philadelphia 4. Washington
Dallas is loaded this year. I think they will be better than last year. There is no reason this team should not get to the Super Bowl. I know Romo still hasn't won a playoff game, but he's the type of person to build off past experiences. The Giants are the defending champs. However, losing Strahan and Osi will cost them dearly. I don't see much difference in this Philly team than last year. Sure, they signed Assante Samuel, but they need a lot more help than that. I would not be surprise that this is McNabb's last year in Philly. The Redskins have looked awful this preseason. Sure, it's just preseason, but it's their starters that look very bad.
NFC North: 1. Green Bay 2. Minnesota 3. Detroit 4. Chicago
A lot of people like Minnesota this year. I still don't understand why people are giving Tavaris Jackson a pass over Aaron Rodgers. Until Minnesota gets a good QB, they will be an average team. Green Bay has a lot of young talent. I think McCarthy and Ted Thompson are getting a bad wrap with this Favre thing. They rebuilt this team with young talent and their future looks bright. If they believe in Aaron Rodgers, I'm on board. Detroit is getting better, but not enough. I think Chicago and Atlanta will fight it out as the worst 2 teams in the NFL this year.
NFC West: 1. Arizona 2. Seattle 3. San Francisco 4. St Louis
This is my surprise pick. Most experts are picking Seattle. They just have too many injury issues. Arizona has been taking a step in the right direction. Wisenhunt is doing a good job and this year will show. However, this will be by far the weakest division in the NFL. Arizona or Seattle probably would be the last place team in the NFC East.
AFC East: 1. New England 2. New York Jets 3. Buffalo 4. Miami
I don't see 16-0 or anything close to that this year. I see more like 12-4 this year. The Jets are closing the gap, but Brady and Company are too strong. Their defense is slipping a little this year. Not really much to say about Buffalo or Miami. Both are trying to improve, but unless Brady retires, it doesn't look like it will happen soon.
AFC South: 1. Jacksonville 2. Indianapolis 3. Houston 4. Tennessee
This is finally the year Jacksonville overtakes Indianapolis. They finally have a stable QB and their defense will be tops in the NFL this year. Depth at key positions. I like them. If things fall their way, like injuries with New England, they could wind up in the Super Bowl. The reason I'm not picking Indianapolis, I just don't see any fire in Dungy. His poor coaching cost them against San Diego last year. They are dealing with injury issues too. Houston will be slightly improve. Tennessee I see just getting worse. Vince Young has regressed rather than progressed and he does not have a good WR corp.
AFC North: 1. Pittsburgh 2. Cleveland 3. Cincinnati 4. Baltimore
Cleveland made a lot of off-season acquisitions on defense. I'm going more with gut than logic with Cleveland. Since Crennel has gotten there, they've been very inconsistent. Pittsburgh will still be the class of the league by default. I don't see any improvement in Cincy and Baltimore may be the worst team in the AFC this year.
AFC West: 1. San Diego 2. Denver 3. Oakland 4. Kansas City
I think San Diego is the best team in the division, but I see them slipping a little this year. Merriman will not last the season, Gates is dealing with an injury, LT was banged up more last year than he ever has in his career. All signs point to a decline. Fortunately for San Diego, the rest of the division is inconsistent. I think Denver has a chance to overtake San Diego, but I want to see some result before I trust them. Even though Oakland should be a little more improved this year, KC and Oakland are about even for 2 bad teams.
Playoff Predictions.
NFC - 1. Dallas 2. Green Bay 3. Carolina 4. Arizona 5. Saints 6. Giants
NFC Championship - Dallas over Carolina
AFC - 1. New England 2. Jacksonville 3. San Diego 4. Pittsburgh 5. Indianapolis 6. Cleveland/Jets (One of the two, slight advantage to Cleveland).
AFC Championship - New England over Jacksonville
Super Bowl - New England over Dallas
My sleeper picks are the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Green Bay Packers.
Here are my division breakdowns.
NFC South: 1. Carolina 2. New Orleans 3. Tampa Bay 4. Atlanta
I guess you can call this a homer pick for me. Initially, I liked the Saints over the Panthers, but breaking down the preseason and schedules, I went with the Panthers. I've been good with my predictions for the Panthers the past few years. I thought they were over-rated last year and thought they were very under-rated during their Super Bowl run. They won't be a Super Bowl team this year, but they will be good. They made a lot of right moves in the off-season. If Peppers can get some help on the D-Line, their Defense will be one of the tops in the league again. I think they will have the best Linebacker corp in the NFL. Most favorably, looking at their schedule, it's one of the easiest schedules in the league. The Saints have a tougher schedule than the rest of the division. Tough road games. Tampa is getting old fast and it will show this year. Atlanta is rebuilding.
NFC East: 1. Dallas 2. NY Giants 3. Philadelphia 4. Washington
Dallas is loaded this year. I think they will be better than last year. There is no reason this team should not get to the Super Bowl. I know Romo still hasn't won a playoff game, but he's the type of person to build off past experiences. The Giants are the defending champs. However, losing Strahan and Osi will cost them dearly. I don't see much difference in this Philly team than last year. Sure, they signed Assante Samuel, but they need a lot more help than that. I would not be surprise that this is McNabb's last year in Philly. The Redskins have looked awful this preseason. Sure, it's just preseason, but it's their starters that look very bad.
NFC North: 1. Green Bay 2. Minnesota 3. Detroit 4. Chicago
A lot of people like Minnesota this year. I still don't understand why people are giving Tavaris Jackson a pass over Aaron Rodgers. Until Minnesota gets a good QB, they will be an average team. Green Bay has a lot of young talent. I think McCarthy and Ted Thompson are getting a bad wrap with this Favre thing. They rebuilt this team with young talent and their future looks bright. If they believe in Aaron Rodgers, I'm on board. Detroit is getting better, but not enough. I think Chicago and Atlanta will fight it out as the worst 2 teams in the NFL this year.
NFC West: 1. Arizona 2. Seattle 3. San Francisco 4. St Louis
This is my surprise pick. Most experts are picking Seattle. They just have too many injury issues. Arizona has been taking a step in the right direction. Wisenhunt is doing a good job and this year will show. However, this will be by far the weakest division in the NFL. Arizona or Seattle probably would be the last place team in the NFC East.
AFC East: 1. New England 2. New York Jets 3. Buffalo 4. Miami
I don't see 16-0 or anything close to that this year. I see more like 12-4 this year. The Jets are closing the gap, but Brady and Company are too strong. Their defense is slipping a little this year. Not really much to say about Buffalo or Miami. Both are trying to improve, but unless Brady retires, it doesn't look like it will happen soon.
AFC South: 1. Jacksonville 2. Indianapolis 3. Houston 4. Tennessee
This is finally the year Jacksonville overtakes Indianapolis. They finally have a stable QB and their defense will be tops in the NFL this year. Depth at key positions. I like them. If things fall their way, like injuries with New England, they could wind up in the Super Bowl. The reason I'm not picking Indianapolis, I just don't see any fire in Dungy. His poor coaching cost them against San Diego last year. They are dealing with injury issues too. Houston will be slightly improve. Tennessee I see just getting worse. Vince Young has regressed rather than progressed and he does not have a good WR corp.
AFC North: 1. Pittsburgh 2. Cleveland 3. Cincinnati 4. Baltimore
Cleveland made a lot of off-season acquisitions on defense. I'm going more with gut than logic with Cleveland. Since Crennel has gotten there, they've been very inconsistent. Pittsburgh will still be the class of the league by default. I don't see any improvement in Cincy and Baltimore may be the worst team in the AFC this year.
AFC West: 1. San Diego 2. Denver 3. Oakland 4. Kansas City
I think San Diego is the best team in the division, but I see them slipping a little this year. Merriman will not last the season, Gates is dealing with an injury, LT was banged up more last year than he ever has in his career. All signs point to a decline. Fortunately for San Diego, the rest of the division is inconsistent. I think Denver has a chance to overtake San Diego, but I want to see some result before I trust them. Even though Oakland should be a little more improved this year, KC and Oakland are about even for 2 bad teams.
Playoff Predictions.
NFC - 1. Dallas 2. Green Bay 3. Carolina 4. Arizona 5. Saints 6. Giants
NFC Championship - Dallas over Carolina
AFC - 1. New England 2. Jacksonville 3. San Diego 4. Pittsburgh 5. Indianapolis 6. Cleveland/Jets (One of the two, slight advantage to Cleveland).
AFC Championship - New England over Jacksonville
Super Bowl - New England over Dallas
College Football Breakdown - Week 1
I watched a lot of college football over the weekend. I will breakdown my thoughts and opinions below:
Florida - Yes, they won 56-10 over the weekend. However, I saw a lot of holes in their defense. Their defense was their downfall last year and will be this year. I may have over-rated them a bit. They will struggle against strong rushing teams. However, they have a favorable schedule this year.
Georgia - Georgia suffered a big setback losing a starting Defensive Lineman this weekend. They'll be OK, but their schedule will still be their downfall this year.
Clemson - Could anyone else not see this result? Like I said Tommy Bowden is a big game choker. Most of their Offensive Line is new. They got all the accolades because of the return of their glamour players. Harper, Spiller, and Davis returned, but as we saw, you need more than them.
Ohio State - Hopefully Beanie Wells will be back for the USC game. USC did look impressive, but I'll still go with Ohio State in their showdown even though I'm not liking it. Their defense is too stacked.
Wake Forest - I should have rated them in my top 3 ACC predictions. They were off my radar. As we saw, the ACC looked bad as a whole.
ACC Football - Yes, everyone is calling them a joke and rightfully so. It's just a bad cycle for them right now. It starts with Miami and FSU, who aren't the dominant teams they use to be. The reason I believe they are down is due to the Florida Gators dominance in the state. Miami and FSU have been spread thin, while the Gators have reaped the benefits in recruiting. Also, there are a lot of over-rated coaches in the ACC. Al Groh and Tommy Bowden to start. Plus, the ACC have a lot of young teams this season.
Cupcake scheduling - I think the BCS should reward scheduling like the NCAA basketball tournament committee does. Whatever formula the BCS uses, they should penalize for scheduling I-AA teams. Strength of Schedule should have more emphasis.
Any changes in my predictions? - Depending on the stature of Beanie Wells injury, I may have to go with USC. Florida and South Carolina, even though they won by big margins, they aren't as good as they seem. Missouri may be better than I thought. I'd probably give them a nod over Texas for #2 in the Big 12.
Coaches that need to go after this season: Dave Wannstedt and Phillip Fulmer. Very poor coaching jobs. They had the talent to dominant their opponents over the weekend, but yet found a way to lose.
Florida - Yes, they won 56-10 over the weekend. However, I saw a lot of holes in their defense. Their defense was their downfall last year and will be this year. I may have over-rated them a bit. They will struggle against strong rushing teams. However, they have a favorable schedule this year.
Georgia - Georgia suffered a big setback losing a starting Defensive Lineman this weekend. They'll be OK, but their schedule will still be their downfall this year.
Clemson - Could anyone else not see this result? Like I said Tommy Bowden is a big game choker. Most of their Offensive Line is new. They got all the accolades because of the return of their glamour players. Harper, Spiller, and Davis returned, but as we saw, you need more than them.
Ohio State - Hopefully Beanie Wells will be back for the USC game. USC did look impressive, but I'll still go with Ohio State in their showdown even though I'm not liking it. Their defense is too stacked.
Wake Forest - I should have rated them in my top 3 ACC predictions. They were off my radar. As we saw, the ACC looked bad as a whole.
ACC Football - Yes, everyone is calling them a joke and rightfully so. It's just a bad cycle for them right now. It starts with Miami and FSU, who aren't the dominant teams they use to be. The reason I believe they are down is due to the Florida Gators dominance in the state. Miami and FSU have been spread thin, while the Gators have reaped the benefits in recruiting. Also, there are a lot of over-rated coaches in the ACC. Al Groh and Tommy Bowden to start. Plus, the ACC have a lot of young teams this season.
Cupcake scheduling - I think the BCS should reward scheduling like the NCAA basketball tournament committee does. Whatever formula the BCS uses, they should penalize for scheduling I-AA teams. Strength of Schedule should have more emphasis.
Any changes in my predictions? - Depending on the stature of Beanie Wells injury, I may have to go with USC. Florida and South Carolina, even though they won by big margins, they aren't as good as they seem. Missouri may be better than I thought. I'd probably give them a nod over Texas for #2 in the Big 12.
Coaches that need to go after this season: Dave Wannstedt and Phillip Fulmer. Very poor coaching jobs. They had the talent to dominant their opponents over the weekend, but yet found a way to lose.
College Football Preview
I got started on my blog last week about my college football predictions and didn’t get a chance to get it out before the season. Tough finding time with a baby on the way, I can’t imagine how it will be when he actually arrives. Below were my predictions:
The Georgia Bulldogs were #1 in most preseason polls, but they aren’t the powerhouse pick as we’ve seen in previous years. I do not think UGA will not be there in the end. They may not even win the SEC. At best, I think UGA is a 10-2 team this year, but more than likely 9-3 (not including bowl game). Their schedule is too tough. If they had last year’s schedule, I’d give them more of a chance. If
1. Oklahoma 2. Ohio State 3. USC 4. Florida 5. Georgia 6. West Virginia 7. Texas 8. Auburn 9. LSU 10. Florida State
SEC – 1.
The SEC is always tough to predict. It’s consistently the best college football conference.
ACC – 1.
A lot of the media is picking Clemson this year. Living in ACC country, I’ve seen this story plenty of times. Tommy Bowden is as overrated coach you will find and Clemson will lose 1-2 games every year they aren’t supposed to. I like FSU to bounce back this year. They still consistently recruit the best athletes in the ACC. The ACC is not top heavy this year, but if things are close to even in the ACC, I would always take FSU.
Big 12 – 1.
I like
Big 10 – 1.
Big East – 1.
Pac 10 – 1. USC 2.
This is still USC’s league. They play ASU and
Others – 1.
Notice no Notre Dame. They are a 7-5/8-4 team at best.
National Championship:
After I wrote this, I saw that Sports Illustrated picked the same National Championship game. However, I picked
Monday, August 18, 2008
Quick Hit on the Olympics
Michael Phelps and the Redeem Team has dominated the coverage of the Summer Olympics. It was amazing that Michael Phelps won his 7th gold medal by .01 sec. Initially seeing the replay, I thought no way he won. Sports Illustrated has a frame-by-frame replay on its website that proves Phelps won. Check it out.
I've been intrigued by the Jamaicans dominating the sprints, particularly Usain Bolt. He's dominating and setting World Records with little or no effort. He's only 21, so we'll see him many years to come. He is a physical specimen. Imagine if he grew up in the United States and played football. If I was a college football coach, I'd start getting some connections in Jamaica to recruit some athletes.
I've been intrigued by the Jamaicans dominating the sprints, particularly Usain Bolt. He's dominating and setting World Records with little or no effort. He's only 21, so we'll see him many years to come. He is a physical specimen. Imagine if he grew up in the United States and played football. If I was a college football coach, I'd start getting some connections in Jamaica to recruit some athletes.
Tuesday, August 12, 2008
Latest Musings - Favre, Olympics, Panthers
A few ramblings from the past week:
Favre - I don't think there was a winner or loser from the Packers-Favre divorce. The Green Bay Packers obviously wanted to move on. Truthfully, I don't blame them. Favre has held them hostage for the past few years. The Packers were ready to move on. I think they were very frustrated. They couldn't plan for their draft, look at potential free agents, and juggle the salary cap because of Favre's waffling the past few years. Favre finally announced he was retiring. The Packers moved on. They drafted Brian Brohm in the second round in case Aaron Rodgers doesn't work out. When Favre changed his mind, AGAIN, the Packers had enough. I really think if Favre would have told them, yes, he was coming back initially, the Packers would have been satisfied and would have accepted him. They could have used their 2nd round draft pick on a position need. Obviously, any team would rather have Favre than Aaron Rodgers, but the Packers felt they were being held hostage. Thompson and McCarthy were satisfied with Rodger's progress and felt satisfied with their team without Favre. I'm not going to question the Packers for this decision. McCarthy and Thompson have been good the past few years in judging young talent. They developed a lot of young players last year and their future looks bright. Grant, Jennings, Hawk all were very young players that contributed heavily to the Packers success last year. I still think they will win the NFC Central this year.
As for Favre and the Jets, this made them from who cares to somewhat interesting. They will definitely be better than 4-12 from last year. They made a lot of FA signings and have drafted well the past 2 years. Favre is an upgrade, but not as significant as a lot of the experts are saying. Sure, he may add a few wins this year. Realistically, how many more years does he have left. Would they be better in letting Kellen Clemens develop or take a flyer on 1 year, 2 max, with Favre? I think this team is a 9-7 team at best. Problem is, this doesn't get you into the playoffs in the AFC. Favre will bring them publicity and excitement temporarily. However, I think the Packers are still in a better situation this year.
Summer Olympics - I really haven't been interested at all in the Summer Olympics since the games were in Atlanta. However, this year's Olympics has a lot of intrigue and NBC has done a great job in presentation. I've heard more buzz about this Olympic Games the past few days from friends, co-workers, media coverage, etc. than I have for the past 2 combined. The USA Basketball team, otherwise known as The Redeem Team, gets the bulk of the coverage. I think they will win the Gold easily. Kobe Bryant has shown a lot of leadership skills this year and on this team. That's what USA Basketball has been missing the past few years. All these basketball superstars really didn't have a leader and we are seeing more team basketball rather than individual agendas. I think the 2nd biggest reason for the buzz of this Olympics are the location. China is the most populated country in the world and just like real estate, location sells. Even though I don't agree with China's political agendas and really don't trust them, they have done a great job being a host country and the athletes seem happy to be competing over there.
Carolina Panthers - Final musing is about my hometown team, the Carolina Panthers. Their 1st pre-season game has come and gone. The 1st string, for those that played, looked good. Peppers looked like the old Peppers, the O-line looks like the real deal, and the Defensive Line as a whole looked better than I thought they would. Coming into this season, I thought the Defensive Line would be their weakness. I would have liked to see Delhomme play a longer series. He played mostly short series thanks to the defense. It was just the 1st pre-season game though. The Colts had a lot of key players out, including Peyton Manning, so who know if this game really gauges anything for the Panthers. A better Eagles team looms this week. Let's see if we see promise again this week or if we got the classic Carolina Panthers tease.
Favre - I don't think there was a winner or loser from the Packers-Favre divorce. The Green Bay Packers obviously wanted to move on. Truthfully, I don't blame them. Favre has held them hostage for the past few years. The Packers were ready to move on. I think they were very frustrated. They couldn't plan for their draft, look at potential free agents, and juggle the salary cap because of Favre's waffling the past few years. Favre finally announced he was retiring. The Packers moved on. They drafted Brian Brohm in the second round in case Aaron Rodgers doesn't work out. When Favre changed his mind, AGAIN, the Packers had enough. I really think if Favre would have told them, yes, he was coming back initially, the Packers would have been satisfied and would have accepted him. They could have used their 2nd round draft pick on a position need. Obviously, any team would rather have Favre than Aaron Rodgers, but the Packers felt they were being held hostage. Thompson and McCarthy were satisfied with Rodger's progress and felt satisfied with their team without Favre. I'm not going to question the Packers for this decision. McCarthy and Thompson have been good the past few years in judging young talent. They developed a lot of young players last year and their future looks bright. Grant, Jennings, Hawk all were very young players that contributed heavily to the Packers success last year. I still think they will win the NFC Central this year.
As for Favre and the Jets, this made them from who cares to somewhat interesting. They will definitely be better than 4-12 from last year. They made a lot of FA signings and have drafted well the past 2 years. Favre is an upgrade, but not as significant as a lot of the experts are saying. Sure, he may add a few wins this year. Realistically, how many more years does he have left. Would they be better in letting Kellen Clemens develop or take a flyer on 1 year, 2 max, with Favre? I think this team is a 9-7 team at best. Problem is, this doesn't get you into the playoffs in the AFC. Favre will bring them publicity and excitement temporarily. However, I think the Packers are still in a better situation this year.
Summer Olympics - I really haven't been interested at all in the Summer Olympics since the games were in Atlanta. However, this year's Olympics has a lot of intrigue and NBC has done a great job in presentation. I've heard more buzz about this Olympic Games the past few days from friends, co-workers, media coverage, etc. than I have for the past 2 combined. The USA Basketball team, otherwise known as The Redeem Team, gets the bulk of the coverage. I think they will win the Gold easily. Kobe Bryant has shown a lot of leadership skills this year and on this team. That's what USA Basketball has been missing the past few years. All these basketball superstars really didn't have a leader and we are seeing more team basketball rather than individual agendas. I think the 2nd biggest reason for the buzz of this Olympics are the location. China is the most populated country in the world and just like real estate, location sells. Even though I don't agree with China's political agendas and really don't trust them, they have done a great job being a host country and the athletes seem happy to be competing over there.
Carolina Panthers - Final musing is about my hometown team, the Carolina Panthers. Their 1st pre-season game has come and gone. The 1st string, for those that played, looked good. Peppers looked like the old Peppers, the O-line looks like the real deal, and the Defensive Line as a whole looked better than I thought they would. Coming into this season, I thought the Defensive Line would be their weakness. I would have liked to see Delhomme play a longer series. He played mostly short series thanks to the defense. It was just the 1st pre-season game though. The Colts had a lot of key players out, including Peyton Manning, so who know if this game really gauges anything for the Panthers. A better Eagles team looms this week. Let's see if we see promise again this week or if we got the classic Carolina Panthers tease.
Tuesday, August 5, 2008
Fantasy Football Draft Board
It's almost time for fantasy football. The first thing is the fantasy draft. I'm in like 6 leagues. How will I keep up with them with a baby on the way? I don't know, but we will see. Of course you should draft base on your league scoring and settings. My rankings are your basic rankings.
A lot of publications have their fantasy rankings now. I have my own set of rankings. I think this year will be one of the toughest years to draft. I don't think you should follow fantasy rule #1, which is value RB's the most. There are too many mediocre backs and teams are starting to use the 2 back system wisely. This is my philosophy and I almost always profit in my fantasy leagues with this philosophy. I'd rather have QB's or WR that I know will put up numbers than have RB's that could potentially put up great numbers, but have lots of question marks.
I'm only going to rank my Top 24 players. That should get you through the 1st 2 rounds.
1. LaDainian Tomlinson - Still #1, although not by the wide margin he's been in years past. Also, not 100% confident he will be one of the top players at the end of the season. Injuries may finally catch up to him this year.
2. Adrian Peterson - Potential to put up monster numbers. Showed last year how explosive he could be. However, his running style is prone for an injury. If you're in a keeper league, I would rank AP ahead of LT. Otherwise, I'm comfortable ranking LT then AP.
3. Brian Westbrook - Finally had a healthy year last year and his fantasy numbers showed it. A very versatile back. May not have the rushing numbers LT and AP has, but will boost his numbers in the West Coast offense with lots of receiving yards.
4. Tom Brady - Put up monster numbers last year. Probably one of the greatest QB numbers of all time. He carried a lot of fantasy teams by himself last year. Probably won't have the numbers like last year, but should still put up great numbers. Patriots play in a weak division, still has lots of weapons, and the Pats may have more to proove with their Super Bowl loss last year.
5. Joseph Addai - This is where I see the first slight drop off in player value. I like Addai and his production but he's also suffered injuries some. Also, it seems the Colts defense has gotten a lot more conservative the past few years. However, with Peyton Manning as his QB, his still one of the most dangerous back.
6. Tony Romo - This is where my philosophy probably doesn't coincide with the experts or differ from the expert fantasy sites. Romo put up monster numbers some games and carried a lot of teams last year. Unlike Brady, Romo was probably drafted rounds 4-6 last year and owners got lots of value because he definitely had 1st round numbers. He still has all of his weapons and it helps when your offensive coordinator has the freedom to call whatever he wants and is a former QB.
7. Steven Jackson - Even if he wasn't holding out right now, I would still have him ranked at this position. A lot of boards has him 4th or 5th. My concern with SJax is his weak offensive line. Also, Bulger seems to be on the decline. I like the way SJax plays. I can see him getting the yards, however, I don't see the TD's from him to boost his value.
8. Marion Barber III - Finally he is a #1 back, and about 2 years too late. He's always been a TD beast. However, the Cowboys philosophy is to split carries. Case in point with them drafting Felix Jones in the 1st round.
9. Peyton Manning - His surgery in the off-season had no effect on my ranking with him. Like I said earlier, it seems the Colts offense has gotten more conservative. Marvin Harrison is on the decline. Colts defense is good now, so they don't need their offense to put up big numbers. His consistency is too good to pass up at this position.
10. Randy Moss - He's really come full circle. Just when you think he's done, he comes back. Much thanks to Tom Brady though. He had outstanding numbers last year. I don't think he will match it this year, but the Brady-Moss combo is the most lethal combo in the NFL.
11. Terrell Owens - The Romo-TO combo is the 2nd best combo in the NFL. The league has gotten pass happy and the rules are more geared towards the passing game nowadays. Having Randy Moss and TO ranked this high is probably not the classic philosophy.
12. Larry Johnson - This point of the draft is the toughest part to rank. There a lot of RB's that you could potentially rank at this spot. Draw picks 12 thru 15 in a hat and you would probably have as much skill as ranking yourself. I put LJ at this spot because I think an early nagging injury kept his production down last year. He should be 100% this year and we could perhaps see the LJ of old and get value at this spot. Even though KC still has QB problems, LJ is still the man in KC.
13. Clinton Portis - Portis is the anomaly back that you think is going to be a beast and have a monster year, but it never happens. He had the beast year in Denver and never came close to match it. The year he busted loose in Denver, he wasn't highly ranked. Seems every year since, owners draft him too high thinking he will do it again. Washington's scheme is very conservative and they've never been consistent at QB. This year may be a little different with Campbell giving them some stability.
14. Reggie Wayne - I have 3 QB's in the 1st round. Their #1 target each should be highly valued. Harrison seems to be on the decline. Wayne has been very consistent and even when he was #2 to Harrison, he put up #1 numbers. This slot is usually a 2nd round slot. If you drafted a QB or WR with your 1st round pick, I'd consider taking the next highest RB instead and sliding Wayne down. If you picked an RB with your 1st round pick, I think Wayne is the best pick here.
15. Frank Gore - I have Gore ranked a lot lower than most of the experts. He put up great numbers 2 years ago. Last year, he slipped a bit and was very inconsistent. This was mainly due to the inconsistent QB play. Mike Martz is there now, so maybe they will get more offensive consistency. However, consistency starts at QB.
16. Marshawn Lynch - As a rookie last year, he showed he had great potential. He was the main man in Buffalo early in the season, which is tough for a rookie. Let's see how he does knowing he will be the man this year. Buffalo at times show they can play with the big boys, but then they lose by 35 to the Patriots and practically give a game to the Giants last year. Cold weather backs are tough to rank as they usually slide in the 2nd half of the year.
17. Ryan Grant - Didn't get a lot of accolades last year, but earned the starting job. With Aaron Rodgers at QB now, he could see a lot of stacked lines. However, I think the Packers have too many great receiver for teams to do this. Grant will get his. I think at most all he will ever be is a 2nd round fantasy back.
18. Willis McGahee - Baltimore's pourous offense doesn't do McGahee justice. Put him on a good team, I think he's a first rounder. I am very wary to put him at this high. If you took an RB in the 1st round, I'd probably take a WR at this slot.
19. Braylon Edwards - Edwards showed he was a premier receiver last year. He always had been, he just need a QB to get him the ball.
20. TJ Houshmanzadeh - This is the year Housh surpasses Chad Johnson. I think Palmer and the Bengals realize Housh is the man and is tired of Chad Johnson's antics. Production wise, he has more yards per reception than CJ. With him getting more looks than CJ this year, I can see him being a top tier receiver in the league.
21. Andre Johnson - If AJ wouldn't have gotten hurt last year, he would have been a top 5 receiver last year. His points per game was up there. Matt Schaub gave them a little more consistent play at QB last year. Even when David Carr was there, he still put up decent numbers. We all know how awful Carr is.
22. Larry Fitzgerald - I know a lot of boards have Fitz ranked ahead of AJ, Housh, and maybe even Edwards. I just don't like the fact Arizona was talking about trading him in the off-season. Arizona is going more towards the conservative approach with their coach's Pittsburgh Steelers philosophy.
23. Jamal Lewis - He had been a bust for so many years, he finally had a comeback season last year. It's hard to trust drafting him. However, Cleveland has too many offensive weapons to not rank him here.
24. Maurice Jones Drew - If he can ever get the bulk of carries in Jacksonville, he can put up good numbers. He's always gotten a good number of TD's considering he doesn't get the bulk of carries. His size has always been the worry for everyone, but he plays hard and has a great attitude.
Here are the best of the rest which may not be ranked as high, but can potentially have the numbers:
Reggie Bush - More weapons in NO (Shockey) should mean more offensive numbers for that offense. Their schedule is not very tough either.
Drew Brees - See above with more weapons in NO.
Darren McFadden - May be worth overdrafting in a keeper league. Downside is Oakland is still in chaos.
Calvin Johnson - Receivers seem to break out in year 2. Why not take a flyer on the best rookie receiver from last year.
When my big money fantasy drafts, I'll will post my draft picks.
A lot of publications have their fantasy rankings now. I have my own set of rankings. I think this year will be one of the toughest years to draft. I don't think you should follow fantasy rule #1, which is value RB's the most. There are too many mediocre backs and teams are starting to use the 2 back system wisely. This is my philosophy and I almost always profit in my fantasy leagues with this philosophy. I'd rather have QB's or WR that I know will put up numbers than have RB's that could potentially put up great numbers, but have lots of question marks.
I'm only going to rank my Top 24 players. That should get you through the 1st 2 rounds.
1. LaDainian Tomlinson - Still #1, although not by the wide margin he's been in years past. Also, not 100% confident he will be one of the top players at the end of the season. Injuries may finally catch up to him this year.
2. Adrian Peterson - Potential to put up monster numbers. Showed last year how explosive he could be. However, his running style is prone for an injury. If you're in a keeper league, I would rank AP ahead of LT. Otherwise, I'm comfortable ranking LT then AP.
3. Brian Westbrook - Finally had a healthy year last year and his fantasy numbers showed it. A very versatile back. May not have the rushing numbers LT and AP has, but will boost his numbers in the West Coast offense with lots of receiving yards.
4. Tom Brady - Put up monster numbers last year. Probably one of the greatest QB numbers of all time. He carried a lot of fantasy teams by himself last year. Probably won't have the numbers like last year, but should still put up great numbers. Patriots play in a weak division, still has lots of weapons, and the Pats may have more to proove with their Super Bowl loss last year.
5. Joseph Addai - This is where I see the first slight drop off in player value. I like Addai and his production but he's also suffered injuries some. Also, it seems the Colts defense has gotten a lot more conservative the past few years. However, with Peyton Manning as his QB, his still one of the most dangerous back.
6. Tony Romo - This is where my philosophy probably doesn't coincide with the experts or differ from the expert fantasy sites. Romo put up monster numbers some games and carried a lot of teams last year. Unlike Brady, Romo was probably drafted rounds 4-6 last year and owners got lots of value because he definitely had 1st round numbers. He still has all of his weapons and it helps when your offensive coordinator has the freedom to call whatever he wants and is a former QB.
7. Steven Jackson - Even if he wasn't holding out right now, I would still have him ranked at this position. A lot of boards has him 4th or 5th. My concern with SJax is his weak offensive line. Also, Bulger seems to be on the decline. I like the way SJax plays. I can see him getting the yards, however, I don't see the TD's from him to boost his value.
8. Marion Barber III - Finally he is a #1 back, and about 2 years too late. He's always been a TD beast. However, the Cowboys philosophy is to split carries. Case in point with them drafting Felix Jones in the 1st round.
9. Peyton Manning - His surgery in the off-season had no effect on my ranking with him. Like I said earlier, it seems the Colts offense has gotten more conservative. Marvin Harrison is on the decline. Colts defense is good now, so they don't need their offense to put up big numbers. His consistency is too good to pass up at this position.
10. Randy Moss - He's really come full circle. Just when you think he's done, he comes back. Much thanks to Tom Brady though. He had outstanding numbers last year. I don't think he will match it this year, but the Brady-Moss combo is the most lethal combo in the NFL.
11. Terrell Owens - The Romo-TO combo is the 2nd best combo in the NFL. The league has gotten pass happy and the rules are more geared towards the passing game nowadays. Having Randy Moss and TO ranked this high is probably not the classic philosophy.
12. Larry Johnson - This point of the draft is the toughest part to rank. There a lot of RB's that you could potentially rank at this spot. Draw picks 12 thru 15 in a hat and you would probably have as much skill as ranking yourself. I put LJ at this spot because I think an early nagging injury kept his production down last year. He should be 100% this year and we could perhaps see the LJ of old and get value at this spot. Even though KC still has QB problems, LJ is still the man in KC.
13. Clinton Portis - Portis is the anomaly back that you think is going to be a beast and have a monster year, but it never happens. He had the beast year in Denver and never came close to match it. The year he busted loose in Denver, he wasn't highly ranked. Seems every year since, owners draft him too high thinking he will do it again. Washington's scheme is very conservative and they've never been consistent at QB. This year may be a little different with Campbell giving them some stability.
14. Reggie Wayne - I have 3 QB's in the 1st round. Their #1 target each should be highly valued. Harrison seems to be on the decline. Wayne has been very consistent and even when he was #2 to Harrison, he put up #1 numbers. This slot is usually a 2nd round slot. If you drafted a QB or WR with your 1st round pick, I'd consider taking the next highest RB instead and sliding Wayne down. If you picked an RB with your 1st round pick, I think Wayne is the best pick here.
15. Frank Gore - I have Gore ranked a lot lower than most of the experts. He put up great numbers 2 years ago. Last year, he slipped a bit and was very inconsistent. This was mainly due to the inconsistent QB play. Mike Martz is there now, so maybe they will get more offensive consistency. However, consistency starts at QB.
16. Marshawn Lynch - As a rookie last year, he showed he had great potential. He was the main man in Buffalo early in the season, which is tough for a rookie. Let's see how he does knowing he will be the man this year. Buffalo at times show they can play with the big boys, but then they lose by 35 to the Patriots and practically give a game to the Giants last year. Cold weather backs are tough to rank as they usually slide in the 2nd half of the year.
17. Ryan Grant - Didn't get a lot of accolades last year, but earned the starting job. With Aaron Rodgers at QB now, he could see a lot of stacked lines. However, I think the Packers have too many great receiver for teams to do this. Grant will get his. I think at most all he will ever be is a 2nd round fantasy back.
18. Willis McGahee - Baltimore's pourous offense doesn't do McGahee justice. Put him on a good team, I think he's a first rounder. I am very wary to put him at this high. If you took an RB in the 1st round, I'd probably take a WR at this slot.
19. Braylon Edwards - Edwards showed he was a premier receiver last year. He always had been, he just need a QB to get him the ball.
20. TJ Houshmanzadeh - This is the year Housh surpasses Chad Johnson. I think Palmer and the Bengals realize Housh is the man and is tired of Chad Johnson's antics. Production wise, he has more yards per reception than CJ. With him getting more looks than CJ this year, I can see him being a top tier receiver in the league.
21. Andre Johnson - If AJ wouldn't have gotten hurt last year, he would have been a top 5 receiver last year. His points per game was up there. Matt Schaub gave them a little more consistent play at QB last year. Even when David Carr was there, he still put up decent numbers. We all know how awful Carr is.
22. Larry Fitzgerald - I know a lot of boards have Fitz ranked ahead of AJ, Housh, and maybe even Edwards. I just don't like the fact Arizona was talking about trading him in the off-season. Arizona is going more towards the conservative approach with their coach's Pittsburgh Steelers philosophy.
23. Jamal Lewis - He had been a bust for so many years, he finally had a comeback season last year. It's hard to trust drafting him. However, Cleveland has too many offensive weapons to not rank him here.
24. Maurice Jones Drew - If he can ever get the bulk of carries in Jacksonville, he can put up good numbers. He's always gotten a good number of TD's considering he doesn't get the bulk of carries. His size has always been the worry for everyone, but he plays hard and has a great attitude.
Here are the best of the rest which may not be ranked as high, but can potentially have the numbers:
Reggie Bush - More weapons in NO (Shockey) should mean more offensive numbers for that offense. Their schedule is not very tough either.
Drew Brees - See above with more weapons in NO.
Darren McFadden - May be worth overdrafting in a keeper league. Downside is Oakland is still in chaos.
Calvin Johnson - Receivers seem to break out in year 2. Why not take a flyer on the best rookie receiver from last year.
When my big money fantasy drafts, I'll will post my draft picks.
Wednesday, March 12, 2008
Fantasy Baseball Preview
Its a few weeks before the start of baseball, which brings us to Fantasy Baseball. Most Fantasy Baseball drafts are in full gear right around now. My money league draft was last night. I won this money league last year. More through luck, than my shear genius. Fantasy Baseball is very tough. A lot more tougher than Fantasy Football. You really have to keep up with it a few times a week and most leagues allow roster changes daily. Also, in baseball, the middle tier players are basically even and there are a lot more to select from than with from football. Fantasy Baseball probably has 5 tiers of players as opposed to football with 4 tiers of players. In baseball, 1/2 the players fall into Tier 3, football you won't find such a majority in one tier. The head-to-head leagues are more fun than the classic roto-style or points leagues. You can have a runaway leader in these types of leagues by August and everyone loses interest the last 2 months of the league. Head-to-Head, most teams are in it at the end. I finished 5th in the regular season last year and ended up strategizing my way to winning the season ending tournament.
Most years, you have the runaway or consensus top picks. This year, it's different. The difference between the 1st round players is not much different than the 2nd round players. ARod is #1 on most boards as is mine. Even though an Ortiz or Vlad will put up similar or better numbers than Arod, his 3B position makes him more valuable because of the premium at the position. Here are my Tier 1 rankings. By Tier 1, all these players should be gone the 1st 2 rounds.
Starting Pitching:
Johan Santana - He's in a class by himself. Only thing that I am skeptical of is how he handles the change in leagues.
Relief Pitching: You should not take an RP the 1st 2 rounds. A lot of boards have JJ Putz as the #1 reliever. I have Papelbon as #1.
1B: Albert Pujols, David Ortiz, Prince Fielder, Ryan Howard
Ortiz is the safest pick. Pujols has injury concerns this off-season. Howard strikes out a ton. Fielder has had 1 good year. Will he go through a sophomore jinx? If Pujols didn't have injury concerns, he's the clear #1 at this position.
2B: Chase Utley - No other player in his class. Put up unusual monster numbers for a player at this position. Alfonso Soriano is the only other player to put up great numbers this decade, but his strikeouts were very high and have since switched positions.
SS: Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes, Jimmy Rollins - Unusually a lot of top tier players at this position. Shortstop and catcher are the 2 most premium positions to have if there is a star at the position. The drop-off is very significant at this position. I kind of question Hanley due to Cabrera leaving the Marlins. I think this will affect his production. Most boards put Reyes ahead of Rollins due to the # of steals and runs. I would agree, but you can't go wrong with either. I would go Reyes, Rollins, Hanley.
3B: Alex Rodriquez, David Wright, Miguel Cabrera - ARod is probably the consensus #1 player in Fantasy Baseball. Consistently puts up good numbers at all the categories and at a premium position. The older he gets, the less steals he will get. He's not a runaway #1. David Wright has been a rising star the past few years and now can be deemed in superstar status. His numbers potential can be as good as or better than Arod. He needs someone hitting behind him. If Delgado can have a comeback season hitting behind him, I see MVP numbers. His number of steals caught me by surprise. I'm not sure if he will consistently be a 30-30 man, but more power to him if he does. Cabrera is expected to put up huge numbers in Detroit's loaded lineup. If he can do it in Florida, he definitely can in Detroit, assuming he keeps himself in shape. I would put him at the tail end of Tier 1 though. Some boards put Ryan Braun in the Tier 1 category, but I do not. You have to have some consistency before I put him in Tier 1.
Catcher: Victor Martinez - I'm not sure if I would put any catcher in Tier 1. Victor Martinez is clearly the best fantasy catcher, but I would say he's a late 3rd/4th round pick at best. Unless a catcher puts up prime Piazza numbers, catchers are a low premium. The grind is too much and a catcher rarely makes or breaks your team. Some H2H leagues, you can get away with put 0's at catcher to get better stats.
Outfield: Matt Holliday, Vladimir Guerrero - Outfield is usually the most loaded position. You almost find the best numbers in Outfield, but because there are so many players at this position a stud IF gets top billing in fantasy. However, the field is thin this year. Holliday and Guerrero's numbers do not even match up to any of the top IF players. At best these guys are late 1st round/2nd round guys.
Synopsis
If you did your math, I put 14 guys in Tier 1. Obviously it means you're better off drafting late than early. Here is my Mock draft for the 1st 2 rounds:
1 - Arod, 2 - Reyes, 3 - Rollins, 4 - Utley, 5 - Hanley, 6 - Wright, 7 - Santana, 8 - Pujols, 9 - Ortiz, 10 - Howard, 11 - Fielder, 12 - Cabrera, 13 - Holliday, 14 - Vlad
Tier 2 Players
Tier 2 Players are where most of the mistakes are. You will see a lot of owners reach at this level. Tier 1 and Tier 2 Players should make up the first 4 rounds of your draft. Here are my Tier 2 Players.
Starting Pitching: Jake Peavy, Brandon Webb, Erik Bedard, CC Sabathia, Josh Beckett, Justin Verlander - These 6 pitchers are just barely a notch below Santana. If you include Santana, you've have 7 players in Tiers 1 and 2. Obviously, in a 12 team league, at least 5 owners will not get a Tier 1 or 2 SP. If you are one of them, go pitching heavy in Round 5 thru 8. The order I listed the pitchers are the order I rank them. With Beckett's injury, I thought about moving him behind Verlander, but he could be a Tier 1 pitcher if he was healthy. I was kind of wary of Bedard, but he possibly can shine on a playoff contender rather than the woeful Orioles. I still cannot believe the Orioles traded him.
Relief Pitching: Papelbon, JJ Putz - These are the only 2 relievers I would rank Tier 2. Remember, I did not put a reliever in Tier 1. Nathan and Krod almost fell into this tier. However, I see Nathan's Save Opps decreasing, and KRod lost some swagger last year.
First Base: Berkman, Texiera - I rated Berkman ahead of Tex b/c he's eligible for OF in some leagues. Tex is in a contract year, but my only concern is Atlanta's stadium in not the soap box Texas was.
Second Base: Brandon Phillips - I would rank him at the very bottom of Tier 2. I had a hard time putting him here, but the Reds are good offensively with Dunn and Griffey in the lineup. I almost ranked Cano here but there are several other 2B's that can put up similar number.
Short Stop: Troy Tulowitzki - Playing in Colorado helps. With Matt Holliday and Helton in the lineup with him, he should get opportunities. I did not put Jeter in Tier 2. He's not the stolen base threat he use to be and his offensive numbers have slipped the past few years.
Third Base: Ryan Braun - He put up huge numbers in Milwaukee's lineup last year. Like I said with Prince Fielder, his teammate, I would like to see more consistency. He has potential to be a Tier 1 player. Personally, I would put Aramis Ramirez in this tier. I think he will have a monster year with the Cubs this year. However, I cannot state facts supporting my argument, so I left him out to be objective.
Catcher: Victor Martinez - As stated earlier, there are no Tier 1 catchers. Victor is the clear #1 catcher, but at Tier 2.
Outfield: Carlos Beltran, Carlos Lee, Grady Sizemore, Carl Crawford, Alfonso Soriano - These are your next tier of OFs. I list Berkman as a 1B, but he would fall into the Tier 2 OF category. Which of these OFs you pick in your draft depends who you picked beforehand. Take the power numbers if you chose someone like Reyes, Santana in the 1st round. Crawford or Sizemore if you took someone like Ortiz, Fielder, Pujols in the early round. You can make up steals in the later rounds with your lower tier players. If you take Crawford or Sizemore, make sure to take the power numbers with your Tier 3-4 players. The 82 Cardinals may have won the World Series on defense and speed, but it will get you the cellar in Fantasy baseball.
Synopsis
Should have counted 19 players in Tier 2, totaling 33 for Tiers 1-2. Since Santana was the only Tier 1 pitcher, do not draft a Tier 2 pitcher with your next pick. You balance out your team with your Tier 2 selection. I'd probably go with the pitching with the Tier 2 selections. After the pitching is gone, go with the OFs or 1Bs, depending on #s/needs. Brandon Phillips and Victor Martinez would probably me my last 2 players in Tier 2.
In case you were wondering, here were my round-by-round selections for the first few rounds. I may have made 1 or 2 drafting mistakes, but I think my Tier system balanced my team very well. I picked 8th by-the-way:
Round 1 - David Wright, 2 - David Ortiz, 3 - Brandon Webb, 4 - CC Sabathia, 5 - Saito, 6 - Verlander, 7 - Torii Hunter, 8 - Posada, 9 - Rivera, 10 - Carmona
I may have went too high on Saito, but got steals with Verlander and Carmona. I've got a deep bench and back-ups at every position but Catcher, which is not that important anyways. Hopefully I can defend my crown.
Most years, you have the runaway or consensus top picks. This year, it's different. The difference between the 1st round players is not much different than the 2nd round players. ARod is #1 on most boards as is mine. Even though an Ortiz or Vlad will put up similar or better numbers than Arod, his 3B position makes him more valuable because of the premium at the position. Here are my Tier 1 rankings. By Tier 1, all these players should be gone the 1st 2 rounds.
Starting Pitching:
Johan Santana - He's in a class by himself. Only thing that I am skeptical of is how he handles the change in leagues.
Relief Pitching: You should not take an RP the 1st 2 rounds. A lot of boards have JJ Putz as the #1 reliever. I have Papelbon as #1.
1B: Albert Pujols, David Ortiz, Prince Fielder, Ryan Howard
Ortiz is the safest pick. Pujols has injury concerns this off-season. Howard strikes out a ton. Fielder has had 1 good year. Will he go through a sophomore jinx? If Pujols didn't have injury concerns, he's the clear #1 at this position.
2B: Chase Utley - No other player in his class. Put up unusual monster numbers for a player at this position. Alfonso Soriano is the only other player to put up great numbers this decade, but his strikeouts were very high and have since switched positions.
SS: Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes, Jimmy Rollins - Unusually a lot of top tier players at this position. Shortstop and catcher are the 2 most premium positions to have if there is a star at the position. The drop-off is very significant at this position. I kind of question Hanley due to Cabrera leaving the Marlins. I think this will affect his production. Most boards put Reyes ahead of Rollins due to the # of steals and runs. I would agree, but you can't go wrong with either. I would go Reyes, Rollins, Hanley.
3B: Alex Rodriquez, David Wright, Miguel Cabrera - ARod is probably the consensus #1 player in Fantasy Baseball. Consistently puts up good numbers at all the categories and at a premium position. The older he gets, the less steals he will get. He's not a runaway #1. David Wright has been a rising star the past few years and now can be deemed in superstar status. His numbers potential can be as good as or better than Arod. He needs someone hitting behind him. If Delgado can have a comeback season hitting behind him, I see MVP numbers. His number of steals caught me by surprise. I'm not sure if he will consistently be a 30-30 man, but more power to him if he does. Cabrera is expected to put up huge numbers in Detroit's loaded lineup. If he can do it in Florida, he definitely can in Detroit, assuming he keeps himself in shape. I would put him at the tail end of Tier 1 though. Some boards put Ryan Braun in the Tier 1 category, but I do not. You have to have some consistency before I put him in Tier 1.
Catcher: Victor Martinez - I'm not sure if I would put any catcher in Tier 1. Victor Martinez is clearly the best fantasy catcher, but I would say he's a late 3rd/4th round pick at best. Unless a catcher puts up prime Piazza numbers, catchers are a low premium. The grind is too much and a catcher rarely makes or breaks your team. Some H2H leagues, you can get away with put 0's at catcher to get better stats.
Outfield: Matt Holliday, Vladimir Guerrero - Outfield is usually the most loaded position. You almost find the best numbers in Outfield, but because there are so many players at this position a stud IF gets top billing in fantasy. However, the field is thin this year. Holliday and Guerrero's numbers do not even match up to any of the top IF players. At best these guys are late 1st round/2nd round guys.
Synopsis
If you did your math, I put 14 guys in Tier 1. Obviously it means you're better off drafting late than early. Here is my Mock draft for the 1st 2 rounds:
1 - Arod, 2 - Reyes, 3 - Rollins, 4 - Utley, 5 - Hanley, 6 - Wright, 7 - Santana, 8 - Pujols, 9 - Ortiz, 10 - Howard, 11 - Fielder, 12 - Cabrera, 13 - Holliday, 14 - Vlad
Tier 2 Players
Tier 2 Players are where most of the mistakes are. You will see a lot of owners reach at this level. Tier 1 and Tier 2 Players should make up the first 4 rounds of your draft. Here are my Tier 2 Players.
Starting Pitching: Jake Peavy, Brandon Webb, Erik Bedard, CC Sabathia, Josh Beckett, Justin Verlander - These 6 pitchers are just barely a notch below Santana. If you include Santana, you've have 7 players in Tiers 1 and 2. Obviously, in a 12 team league, at least 5 owners will not get a Tier 1 or 2 SP. If you are one of them, go pitching heavy in Round 5 thru 8. The order I listed the pitchers are the order I rank them. With Beckett's injury, I thought about moving him behind Verlander, but he could be a Tier 1 pitcher if he was healthy. I was kind of wary of Bedard, but he possibly can shine on a playoff contender rather than the woeful Orioles. I still cannot believe the Orioles traded him.
Relief Pitching: Papelbon, JJ Putz - These are the only 2 relievers I would rank Tier 2. Remember, I did not put a reliever in Tier 1. Nathan and Krod almost fell into this tier. However, I see Nathan's Save Opps decreasing, and KRod lost some swagger last year.
First Base: Berkman, Texiera - I rated Berkman ahead of Tex b/c he's eligible for OF in some leagues. Tex is in a contract year, but my only concern is Atlanta's stadium in not the soap box Texas was.
Second Base: Brandon Phillips - I would rank him at the very bottom of Tier 2. I had a hard time putting him here, but the Reds are good offensively with Dunn and Griffey in the lineup. I almost ranked Cano here but there are several other 2B's that can put up similar number.
Short Stop: Troy Tulowitzki - Playing in Colorado helps. With Matt Holliday and Helton in the lineup with him, he should get opportunities. I did not put Jeter in Tier 2. He's not the stolen base threat he use to be and his offensive numbers have slipped the past few years.
Third Base: Ryan Braun - He put up huge numbers in Milwaukee's lineup last year. Like I said with Prince Fielder, his teammate, I would like to see more consistency. He has potential to be a Tier 1 player. Personally, I would put Aramis Ramirez in this tier. I think he will have a monster year with the Cubs this year. However, I cannot state facts supporting my argument, so I left him out to be objective.
Catcher: Victor Martinez - As stated earlier, there are no Tier 1 catchers. Victor is the clear #1 catcher, but at Tier 2.
Outfield: Carlos Beltran, Carlos Lee, Grady Sizemore, Carl Crawford, Alfonso Soriano - These are your next tier of OFs. I list Berkman as a 1B, but he would fall into the Tier 2 OF category. Which of these OFs you pick in your draft depends who you picked beforehand. Take the power numbers if you chose someone like Reyes, Santana in the 1st round. Crawford or Sizemore if you took someone like Ortiz, Fielder, Pujols in the early round. You can make up steals in the later rounds with your lower tier players. If you take Crawford or Sizemore, make sure to take the power numbers with your Tier 3-4 players. The 82 Cardinals may have won the World Series on defense and speed, but it will get you the cellar in Fantasy baseball.
Synopsis
Should have counted 19 players in Tier 2, totaling 33 for Tiers 1-2. Since Santana was the only Tier 1 pitcher, do not draft a Tier 2 pitcher with your next pick. You balance out your team with your Tier 2 selection. I'd probably go with the pitching with the Tier 2 selections. After the pitching is gone, go with the OFs or 1Bs, depending on #s/needs. Brandon Phillips and Victor Martinez would probably me my last 2 players in Tier 2.
In case you were wondering, here were my round-by-round selections for the first few rounds. I may have made 1 or 2 drafting mistakes, but I think my Tier system balanced my team very well. I picked 8th by-the-way:
Round 1 - David Wright, 2 - David Ortiz, 3 - Brandon Webb, 4 - CC Sabathia, 5 - Saito, 6 - Verlander, 7 - Torii Hunter, 8 - Posada, 9 - Rivera, 10 - Carmona
I may have went too high on Saito, but got steals with Verlander and Carmona. I've got a deep bench and back-ups at every position but Catcher, which is not that important anyways. Hopefully I can defend my crown.
Friday, February 15, 2008
State of the Carolina Panthers
Some NFL teams made some moves this week and the Carolina Panthers were one of them. The Carolina Panthers are my adopted NFL team. I grew up in Georgia, so naturally I rooted for the Atlanta Falcons growing up. I'm now a Carolina Panthers PSL owner and go to as many games as I can.
This week they cut Dan Morgan and Mike Wahle. Morgan has been hurt for most of his tenure and it was a complete shock when the Panthers gave him an extension 2 years ago. Wahle was cut due to salary cap reason. The Panthers need a lot of help this off-season. They are a .500 team at best right now and their record the past 2 years have shown it. Poor drafting, injuries, and poor player personnel decisions have caused their demise from NFC contender to pretender. The NFC is not as stacked as the AFC, so one good off-season can put almost any NFC team back into title contention.
This may be one of the biggest off-seasons ever for the Panthers. How is Delhomme's rehab going? Was Julius Peppers under-achieving season a sign of things to come? How do the Panthers handle his contract, which is set to expire? How do they handle the aging Jenkins and Rucker on the defensive line? With the release of Wahle, there is not much depth at OL. Ken Lucas has declined every year since he got here. What to do about DeShaun Foster? Will the Panthers ever get a good 2nd receiver?
I expect the Panthers to cut Colbert and Foster this off-season. Just makes sense. Colbert is obvious. Foster is aging and declining and could use the cap space. DeAngelo Williams is ready to take on full-time role. The toughest thing is deciding on how much to give Peppers. I don't think he should get Top 5 money. He is reminding me of Jevon Kearse. Kearse was defined as 'The Freak' in Tennessee his rookie year. Had a good first few years. Then, the Philadelphia Eagles got him for big bucks at about the same stage Peppers is at now and has under achieved. This year's draft will make or break the team. Their biggest needs are DL and Secondary help. They desperately need a #2 receiver, but maybe Jarrett can live up to his potential. I'm sure they'll signed a veteran receiver in the off-season. If this year's draft turns out to be a bust, we can say bye-bye to Fox and Hurney.
This week they cut Dan Morgan and Mike Wahle. Morgan has been hurt for most of his tenure and it was a complete shock when the Panthers gave him an extension 2 years ago. Wahle was cut due to salary cap reason. The Panthers need a lot of help this off-season. They are a .500 team at best right now and their record the past 2 years have shown it. Poor drafting, injuries, and poor player personnel decisions have caused their demise from NFC contender to pretender. The NFC is not as stacked as the AFC, so one good off-season can put almost any NFC team back into title contention.
This may be one of the biggest off-seasons ever for the Panthers. How is Delhomme's rehab going? Was Julius Peppers under-achieving season a sign of things to come? How do the Panthers handle his contract, which is set to expire? How do they handle the aging Jenkins and Rucker on the defensive line? With the release of Wahle, there is not much depth at OL. Ken Lucas has declined every year since he got here. What to do about DeShaun Foster? Will the Panthers ever get a good 2nd receiver?
I expect the Panthers to cut Colbert and Foster this off-season. Just makes sense. Colbert is obvious. Foster is aging and declining and could use the cap space. DeAngelo Williams is ready to take on full-time role. The toughest thing is deciding on how much to give Peppers. I don't think he should get Top 5 money. He is reminding me of Jevon Kearse. Kearse was defined as 'The Freak' in Tennessee his rookie year. Had a good first few years. Then, the Philadelphia Eagles got him for big bucks at about the same stage Peppers is at now and has under achieved. This year's draft will make or break the team. Their biggest needs are DL and Secondary help. They desperately need a #2 receiver, but maybe Jarrett can live up to his potential. I'm sure they'll signed a veteran receiver in the off-season. If this year's draft turns out to be a bust, we can say bye-bye to Fox and Hurney.
Tuesday, February 12, 2008
Numero UNO the Underdog
Normally I don't watch the Westminster Dog Show, but this year there is a big buzz about a Beagle named Uno. We have a beagle name Poker. No, I didn't name him. We adopted him from the pound at 8 months old about 4 years ago. My wife has always loved beagles and I thought it was fate that we adopt a dog named Poker. A beagle has never won Best In Show, which is the top prize at the dog show. He will be the true Underdog (A Beagle was used as Underdog last year, the superhero dog). Beagles are great dogs. Very fun-loving, very loyal, can be stubborn at times due to his nose getting in trouble. They are not big, so they can't get over aggressive. Kids love beagles because they are playful. Women love beagles because they are very good looking dogs, mainly due to their color scheme. Of course, Snoopy was a beagle. As a lot of the media outlets are saying, it would be great that an All-American dog wins rather than the fluffy fru-fru dogs. Myself, my wife and Poker will be rooting for Uno tonight.
Picks for Tonight:
UNC -8.5 (UVA is in a big time funk)
Butler -6 (Recommended by a friend)
Picks for Tonight:
UNC -8.5 (UVA is in a big time funk)
Butler -6 (Recommended by a friend)
Monday, February 11, 2008
UNC Goes Down, So Does My Stack
Wednesday Night's FTOPS Event #1 started at 9:00, coincidentally, the UNC-Duke game started at the same time. Even though this was a $750K Guarantee, there were so many entrants that the prize pool was well over $1 million. The structure was as follows: 3000 chips, 12 minute blinds. 5300 players in, payout was top 730. This was the 3rd time I've played in an online tourney this magnitude. I played in 2 Party Poker Million tournies 2 years ago. I cashed like the 3rd money level the first time, and busted out 2nd hand the 2nd time when my pocket Aces lost to K-Q preflop. I think I'm a better poker player now than 2 years ago, but I went on a big run that year. I'll take luck over skill if it gets me the money.
There were really only 4 hands to talk about.
1st Hand: Sitting with about 3300 chips at the 2nd level, dealt Kc-Qc in late position. Raised the standard 3X. Small blind calls. Flop comes Ac-Jd-7C. I have the nut flush draw and straight draw with position. Opponent makes a small bet. I haven't shown any aggression yet. I raise hoping to just take it down now. Opponent calls. Not what I wanted from my opponent, but now have to hope my big draw hits. Turn is a 4h. Opponent checks. I continue my bet to represent. My opponent just calls. Now I'm a little confused. I'm thinking, could my opponent be on a flush draw also, or possible straight draw with a hand like Q-10 or K-Q.? Surely if he had a big hand or big Ace, he would have re-raised so I wouldn't catch my draws in case I was drawing. The River is a BlankXXX. Opponent checks again. Now the only way I win this pot is to bet. Even if he's drawing like I was, he can't call a bet. If he re-raises me, I can just fold. I bet a little more than my turn bet. Opponent just calls. He shows Ace-Rag. I was amazed at what he just call, call, call with. Never a re-raised and allowed me to try and catch a hand. Either bad play on his part, or very good read on his part. Can't figure it out. Down to 2200.
2nd Hand: Next level, there was this German who looked weak and inexperience. Playing a lot of pots with marginal hands. He got lucky once in battle of the blinds when he had A-K and the big blind tried to push with A-J and doubled up. I get K-K and raise, he calls in position. Flop 7-5-J. I check, he bets out. I just call. I can probably milk him all the way down was my thought. Turn comes another 5. Now I'm thinking I hope I didn't let him catch by slow playing. I bet out this time to see where I'm at. He just calls. River come K. BINGO! I think a few seconds what I'm going to do. Instead of a value bet, I get over-aggressive and go All-In hoping he had a piece and I really haven't seen him fold a lot at this point in the tourney. My All-In was more than the size of the pot. He calls w/ J-9. Couldn't believe it. Now I've got some Ammo. Up to about 5800.
3rd Hand: Next level, small stack pushes all-in preflop in mid position. I'm on the button with K-Q. It was for about 1500 chips. I decide to call. He shows 7-7. Didn't catch and lose the race. Down to about 4200.
I go card dead at this point. Lots of blackjack hands like 9-2, 8-3, 7-4, etc. Also, lots of A-Rag hands, mainly out of position. I probably didn't play a hand the next 2 levels.
4th Hand: Now I'm starting to get blinded down. This guy at the table called the Birdman goes on a major rush. He doubled-up 3 times in a row. Twice, sucking out. 7-7 beating 9-9. A-J beating A-K. He started pushing every pot. He had A-A and opponent with a good sized stack pushed back with Q-Q. Takes him out. Now he had more chips than everyone else at the table combined. He was like 3rd on the tourney leaderboard with his chip stack. We are now at less than 1/2 way through the field with about 2200-2300 players left, 2.5 hours in. Blinds are 120-240, he's 3 betting every flop. No one has called like 8 hands in a row. UNC has just lost to Duke and so is my bet on UNC down the drain. Any marginal hand and I'm pushing back. Finally, he raises UTG+1 to 720. I get A-10 on the button and make my stand. Of course he shows 8H-5H. I have about 3200 now due to being blinded down. I'm glad he called and have a great shot at a double up. Kind of questioned his call, but with his stack, I guess he got decent odds. 2500 to win 4500. 1 Heart on the Flop, Turn a Heart, River a Heart. I'm done, finito, outta here!
Looking back now, I try to see what I could have done differently. Probably playing the K-Q suited hand different. It was too early in the tourney to get any kind of a read on the opponent, so I probably should have played small ball. Perhaps just play a pot in position with a marginal hand when I was card dead to try and out maneuver my opponent for chips. Tournaments this large, you just don't know what kind of opponents you get. As I saw early, a lot of players were willing to call down with marginal hands. Due to this, I just hoped for big hands and hope I'm up against these type of players a lot. Unfortunately, I didn't get many big hands. Massive field like this, it takes about 3.5 to 4 hours just to cash. The payouts are very staggered and you don't really make good money unless you go very deep. I think there are better opportunities to make money online in the other smaller field tournies. It doesn't take as much time and you're not hoping for a longshot. I thought about trying to play in the Sunday Million. I tried a few freeroll qualifiers and failed. Wasn't going to put in my own to qualify. Maybe another day.
There were really only 4 hands to talk about.
1st Hand: Sitting with about 3300 chips at the 2nd level, dealt Kc-Qc in late position. Raised the standard 3X. Small blind calls. Flop comes Ac-Jd-7C. I have the nut flush draw and straight draw with position. Opponent makes a small bet. I haven't shown any aggression yet. I raise hoping to just take it down now. Opponent calls. Not what I wanted from my opponent, but now have to hope my big draw hits. Turn is a 4h. Opponent checks. I continue my bet to represent. My opponent just calls. Now I'm a little confused. I'm thinking, could my opponent be on a flush draw also, or possible straight draw with a hand like Q-10 or K-Q.? Surely if he had a big hand or big Ace, he would have re-raised so I wouldn't catch my draws in case I was drawing. The River is a BlankXXX. Opponent checks again. Now the only way I win this pot is to bet. Even if he's drawing like I was, he can't call a bet. If he re-raises me, I can just fold. I bet a little more than my turn bet. Opponent just calls. He shows Ace-Rag. I was amazed at what he just call, call, call with. Never a re-raised and allowed me to try and catch a hand. Either bad play on his part, or very good read on his part. Can't figure it out. Down to 2200.
2nd Hand: Next level, there was this German who looked weak and inexperience. Playing a lot of pots with marginal hands. He got lucky once in battle of the blinds when he had A-K and the big blind tried to push with A-J and doubled up. I get K-K and raise, he calls in position. Flop 7-5-J. I check, he bets out. I just call. I can probably milk him all the way down was my thought. Turn comes another 5. Now I'm thinking I hope I didn't let him catch by slow playing. I bet out this time to see where I'm at. He just calls. River come K. BINGO! I think a few seconds what I'm going to do. Instead of a value bet, I get over-aggressive and go All-In hoping he had a piece and I really haven't seen him fold a lot at this point in the tourney. My All-In was more than the size of the pot. He calls w/ J-9. Couldn't believe it. Now I've got some Ammo. Up to about 5800.
3rd Hand: Next level, small stack pushes all-in preflop in mid position. I'm on the button with K-Q. It was for about 1500 chips. I decide to call. He shows 7-7. Didn't catch and lose the race. Down to about 4200.
I go card dead at this point. Lots of blackjack hands like 9-2, 8-3, 7-4, etc. Also, lots of A-Rag hands, mainly out of position. I probably didn't play a hand the next 2 levels.
4th Hand: Now I'm starting to get blinded down. This guy at the table called the Birdman goes on a major rush. He doubled-up 3 times in a row. Twice, sucking out. 7-7 beating 9-9. A-J beating A-K. He started pushing every pot. He had A-A and opponent with a good sized stack pushed back with Q-Q. Takes him out. Now he had more chips than everyone else at the table combined. He was like 3rd on the tourney leaderboard with his chip stack. We are now at less than 1/2 way through the field with about 2200-2300 players left, 2.5 hours in. Blinds are 120-240, he's 3 betting every flop. No one has called like 8 hands in a row. UNC has just lost to Duke and so is my bet on UNC down the drain. Any marginal hand and I'm pushing back. Finally, he raises UTG+1 to 720. I get A-10 on the button and make my stand. Of course he shows 8H-5H. I have about 3200 now due to being blinded down. I'm glad he called and have a great shot at a double up. Kind of questioned his call, but with his stack, I guess he got decent odds. 2500 to win 4500. 1 Heart on the Flop, Turn a Heart, River a Heart. I'm done, finito, outta here!
Looking back now, I try to see what I could have done differently. Probably playing the K-Q suited hand different. It was too early in the tourney to get any kind of a read on the opponent, so I probably should have played small ball. Perhaps just play a pot in position with a marginal hand when I was card dead to try and out maneuver my opponent for chips. Tournaments this large, you just don't know what kind of opponents you get. As I saw early, a lot of players were willing to call down with marginal hands. Due to this, I just hoped for big hands and hope I'm up against these type of players a lot. Unfortunately, I didn't get many big hands. Massive field like this, it takes about 3.5 to 4 hours just to cash. The payouts are very staggered and you don't really make good money unless you go very deep. I think there are better opportunities to make money online in the other smaller field tournies. It doesn't take as much time and you're not hoping for a longshot. I thought about trying to play in the Sunday Million. I tried a few freeroll qualifiers and failed. Wasn't going to put in my own to qualify. Maybe another day.
Wednesday, February 6, 2008
Full Tilt Satellite
Last night, I played in a satellite into Event #1 of the FTOPS. It was a $69+6 SNG which gave away 3 seats in this 9 man satellite. Entrance into Event #1 is $200+15. The event is tonight (Wednesday) at 9 PM EST. Guaranteed prize pool of $750,000.
One of the guys (Kramer) wanted to do this satellite with all the guys from our Wednesday night game. He got 6 respondents. We decided we would log into Full Tilt at around 10-10:30 and all jump in the same satellite. Everyone would have a 5% stake in the others for the event should any of us win a spot in the satellite. Come game time everyone is there but Jerry. We all decide to jump in the next satellite rather than wait b/c it is already filling up and no one could get in touch with Jerry. Now, we have 5 in the same satellite along with 4 strangers.
Coming into this, I had a different mindset rather than a normal SNG. With the top 3 getting a buy-in and nothing more, my mindset was just to survive. Don't get into any wars early. Just hope for a big hand and ride with it. Respect the plays of the guys in our Wednesday poker game a little more than the strangers. Sit back and see how the unknowns in the game plays and react accordingly. I've only been playing with the guys from the Wednesday night game for about a year, but here is what I know about them.
Kramer - Ability to switch gears. Loose aggressive to tight aggressive, vice versa.
Ludey - Tight aggressive, very solid. Won't beat himself. Only way to beat him is monster over monster, suck out, or hope he gets blinded out.
Jay - One of the best post-flop players in Wednesday group.
Everett - May be the best overall player in the group. Bankroll shows it.
Myself - Clueless at times, sucks out a lot.
We take our seats and I like my position. I'm to the immediate left of Everett and 2 unknowns to my left. Here is the structure of the tourney. Each players gets 1500 chips, 6 minute blinds, top 3 scores a seat. I would guess 6 online minutes is equivlent to about 15 live minutes, maybe 20.
Everyone is tight the first few hands as expected. Later on in the 1st level, some of us just calls the blinds to test the waters. However, the guy to my immediate left, who we will call BigDonkey, seems to always be in the pot. He was betting or raising/over-raising post or pre flop almost every pot he was in and taking it down. I look up his SNG stats and see he only has 20-something games on his record. My thinking is if he's new to Full Tilt, he may be too loose and it may be hard to get him to fold or off a hand, even with an aggressive bluff. If I get a big hand against him, slow play it. No one has yet to be involved in a big pot though. My time comes. I'm in middle position, blinds 20-40. Look down and see 9-9, and raise the typical 120. Fold-Fold-Fold. Guy in the cutoff re-raises to 360 total. Everyone folds back to me. Not what I wanted, getting involved with a big pot early on. Looking back, I probably should have folded, but I call the 240 more out of position. Flop come A-10-X. Not a good flop for me. I'm ready to give up the hand. In a deep stack game, I may put out a feeler bet to represent an Ace. However, 1/3 of my chips are already gone, but I have enough to play and hope for something better later. I check, he hesitates and checks. Turn, I check, he checks again. Now I'm thinking, why is he checking it down. He either fears the Ace, so he has a hand like JJ, QQ, KK, or has A-K or pocket Aces to slow play. A Queen comes on the river, so now 3 over cards on the board. I check again, and he bets 400. Of course I'm not calling. I'm now down to about 950 chips and am the short stack at the table. The good news is the blinds are still low.
Here is another hand I had to think long and hard about later on. Blinds 30-60. I'm in the small blind. BigDonkey to my left is the big blind and the chip leader. Fold around to Everett, who is on the button. He just calls. I have 6-6. Should I push here. Risk my 900 chips for 120, but the big stack has about 2000-2200 chips to my left, which is not a huge stack considering no one has busted out yet. He's reraised pre-flop a few times against people who have just called the blinds. Do I want the embarassment of risking to be the 1st one out? I decide against it and just call the 30. As I feared, BigDonkey raises. Everrett folds, I think for a second and fold. Maybe if the blinds were bigger I would have shoved.
Around to the 3rd-4th level, it's not looking good for our crew. No one has yet to bust out. The 5 of us are the lowest chip stacks, but not much of a variance in chips for the 3rd-7th stacks. Myself and Kramer are by far the short stacks with about 800-900 chips. Here comes our first battle of the night. Ludey is under the gun and does the standard 3X raise. He hasn't played many pots either. Fold to BigDonkey. He calls. Flop comes J-X-X. I think Ludey checked and BigDonkey bets the pot. Ludey re-raises to all-in. BigDonkey calls. Ludey of course has A-A. Played it beautifully. BigDonkey has Q-J for top pair. Gotta love calling All-Ins with Q-J. However, turn is a Q, river is useless. Ludey is our first casualty. Tough beat for him.
After another round of blinds or so, BigDonkey raises pre-flop. Kramer shoves all-in. Jay in late position thinks long and hard and types he has a good hand. He eventually lays it down. BigDonkey calls Kramer's all-in. Jay said he folded J-J. Have to wonder if Jay would have shoved if it was an unknown and not Kramer that shoved all-in? Kramer has A-K and BigDonkey has 9-9. The board is all rags. BigDonkey knocks out Kramer and has a comfortable chip lead. Litterally, a few hands later, BigDonkey is up against the player I laid down my pocket 9's earlier. I'll call him Canuck b/c he was from Canada. Canuck is 2nd in chips at the time. BigDonkey has at least twice as many chips as Canuck who has about 2200. Everyone else left has less than their original 1500. They get it all in pre-flop. Canuck has A-A, and BigDonkey has Q-Q. BigDonkey gets the suckout and has the monster stack. He could coast for a Top 3 finish now.
Later on, Blinds 60-120 - Everett pissed me off on this hand. Everett small blind, me big blind. Fold around to Everett, he shoves all-in in the small blind. I'm holding A-4. What the hell Everett? I guess there is no gentlemens agreement amongst our crew in this game. Of course I fold, and he shows A-4 for the exact same hand. Very next hand, or maybe another revolution, blinds still the same. I'm in the small blind. Fold around to Everett on the button. He just calls. Well, we were in this scenario earlier. Only this time, I have 2-3. I think about folding, but it's only 60 of my 800. This time BigDonkey checks and I breathe a sigh of relief. Flop comes 5-3-3. Yippee! I'm doing cartwheels in my living room, doing the moonwalk, or whatever. I calmly press 'Check'. Big Donkey bets out 120. Everett folds. Should I just call to milk him some more. I slowly hesitate and wait for the timer warning and shove all-in. BigDonkey calls with A-K. Double Up! Back in the game. Only a dent into BigDonkeys stack though. I don't like he has position on me, but hopefully he'll be smart and just coast to finish in the Top 3, which he could do with his chip stack.
After the double-up, I only have about 1700, but amazingly I'm now 2nd in chips. Everyone else is about even in the 1000-1200 range. Everrett may be the short stack with about 800-900 now. Another big moment comes up with me in the small blind again. One of the unknowns in late position shoves All-In preflop. This is the 2nd time in the past few hands he has done this. He's rarely played in pots. I have 10-10. I think for a little bit. If I call and lose I'm not out, but severly crippled. I have 1700 vs his 1100 and change. 1700 chips is not going to get me into the Top 3, so I decided to man-up and call. He shows 2-2. I'm loving it! Unfortunately, the flop comes J-7-2. I'm now pissed off, cursing up a storm. The turn comes a 9. The miracle 8 comes on the river to give me the straight. I'm jumping for joy, doing a handstand, or whatever. Actually, the action was so fast since it's online, it took me a second to realize I had a straight.
We are now down to 5. Another round or so. BigDonkey has not played a pot and maybe realizes he can coast now. Same situation like earlier comes up again. Everett small blind, I'm big blind. Everett shoves all-in preflop trying to gather my blind. However, I have A-9 and a healthy chip stack and am not laying it down. Everett shows J-9. Board doesn't help him, and we are now down to 4. My goal now is to kind of coast and not to play a pot with Jay hoping he can squeeze into the Top 3 also. Jay is 3rd in chips right now with around 2000. I have about 4800, BigDonkey has about 6500. Short stack has a little over 1000. Blinds getting kind of up there, Jay shoves all-in, BigDonkey calls. Jay has A-K, BigDonkey has J-J. King on the flop. Jay doubles up. Now I'm hoping Jay is thinking like I think, lets just work together to get the short stack out of here. Right when I was thinking it, the short stack is all-in with BigDonkey. BigDonkey has Q-Q, and short stack has A-Q. As many suck outs BigDonkey has had this game, I was rooting for him. There is no Ace on the board and we have our Top 3. Me, Jay, and BigDonkey. 2 out of 3 seats not bad and everyone has a piece of each other.
FTOPS Event #1 starts tonight at 9:00. Looking at the numbers, I just realized there may be 3500-4000 people in this. I would expect it to take 10-12 hours to finish up. Hopefully, me and Jay can represent and use our sick day tomorrow. I'll try to do a blog on playing in it also.
One of the guys (Kramer) wanted to do this satellite with all the guys from our Wednesday night game. He got 6 respondents. We decided we would log into Full Tilt at around 10-10:30 and all jump in the same satellite. Everyone would have a 5% stake in the others for the event should any of us win a spot in the satellite. Come game time everyone is there but Jerry. We all decide to jump in the next satellite rather than wait b/c it is already filling up and no one could get in touch with Jerry. Now, we have 5 in the same satellite along with 4 strangers.
Coming into this, I had a different mindset rather than a normal SNG. With the top 3 getting a buy-in and nothing more, my mindset was just to survive. Don't get into any wars early. Just hope for a big hand and ride with it. Respect the plays of the guys in our Wednesday poker game a little more than the strangers. Sit back and see how the unknowns in the game plays and react accordingly. I've only been playing with the guys from the Wednesday night game for about a year, but here is what I know about them.
Kramer - Ability to switch gears. Loose aggressive to tight aggressive, vice versa.
Ludey - Tight aggressive, very solid. Won't beat himself. Only way to beat him is monster over monster, suck out, or hope he gets blinded out.
Jay - One of the best post-flop players in Wednesday group.
Everett - May be the best overall player in the group. Bankroll shows it.
Myself - Clueless at times, sucks out a lot.
We take our seats and I like my position. I'm to the immediate left of Everett and 2 unknowns to my left. Here is the structure of the tourney. Each players gets 1500 chips, 6 minute blinds, top 3 scores a seat. I would guess 6 online minutes is equivlent to about 15 live minutes, maybe 20.
Everyone is tight the first few hands as expected. Later on in the 1st level, some of us just calls the blinds to test the waters. However, the guy to my immediate left, who we will call BigDonkey, seems to always be in the pot. He was betting or raising/over-raising post or pre flop almost every pot he was in and taking it down. I look up his SNG stats and see he only has 20-something games on his record. My thinking is if he's new to Full Tilt, he may be too loose and it may be hard to get him to fold or off a hand, even with an aggressive bluff. If I get a big hand against him, slow play it. No one has yet to be involved in a big pot though. My time comes. I'm in middle position, blinds 20-40. Look down and see 9-9, and raise the typical 120. Fold-Fold-Fold. Guy in the cutoff re-raises to 360 total. Everyone folds back to me. Not what I wanted, getting involved with a big pot early on. Looking back, I probably should have folded, but I call the 240 more out of position. Flop come A-10-X. Not a good flop for me. I'm ready to give up the hand. In a deep stack game, I may put out a feeler bet to represent an Ace. However, 1/3 of my chips are already gone, but I have enough to play and hope for something better later. I check, he hesitates and checks. Turn, I check, he checks again. Now I'm thinking, why is he checking it down. He either fears the Ace, so he has a hand like JJ, QQ, KK, or has A-K or pocket Aces to slow play. A Queen comes on the river, so now 3 over cards on the board. I check again, and he bets 400. Of course I'm not calling. I'm now down to about 950 chips and am the short stack at the table. The good news is the blinds are still low.
Here is another hand I had to think long and hard about later on. Blinds 30-60. I'm in the small blind. BigDonkey to my left is the big blind and the chip leader. Fold around to Everett, who is on the button. He just calls. I have 6-6. Should I push here. Risk my 900 chips for 120, but the big stack has about 2000-2200 chips to my left, which is not a huge stack considering no one has busted out yet. He's reraised pre-flop a few times against people who have just called the blinds. Do I want the embarassment of risking to be the 1st one out? I decide against it and just call the 30. As I feared, BigDonkey raises. Everrett folds, I think for a second and fold. Maybe if the blinds were bigger I would have shoved.
Around to the 3rd-4th level, it's not looking good for our crew. No one has yet to bust out. The 5 of us are the lowest chip stacks, but not much of a variance in chips for the 3rd-7th stacks. Myself and Kramer are by far the short stacks with about 800-900 chips. Here comes our first battle of the night. Ludey is under the gun and does the standard 3X raise. He hasn't played many pots either. Fold to BigDonkey. He calls. Flop comes J-X-X. I think Ludey checked and BigDonkey bets the pot. Ludey re-raises to all-in. BigDonkey calls. Ludey of course has A-A. Played it beautifully. BigDonkey has Q-J for top pair. Gotta love calling All-Ins with Q-J. However, turn is a Q, river is useless. Ludey is our first casualty. Tough beat for him.
After another round of blinds or so, BigDonkey raises pre-flop. Kramer shoves all-in. Jay in late position thinks long and hard and types he has a good hand. He eventually lays it down. BigDonkey calls Kramer's all-in. Jay said he folded J-J. Have to wonder if Jay would have shoved if it was an unknown and not Kramer that shoved all-in? Kramer has A-K and BigDonkey has 9-9. The board is all rags. BigDonkey knocks out Kramer and has a comfortable chip lead. Litterally, a few hands later, BigDonkey is up against the player I laid down my pocket 9's earlier. I'll call him Canuck b/c he was from Canada. Canuck is 2nd in chips at the time. BigDonkey has at least twice as many chips as Canuck who has about 2200. Everyone else left has less than their original 1500. They get it all in pre-flop. Canuck has A-A, and BigDonkey has Q-Q. BigDonkey gets the suckout and has the monster stack. He could coast for a Top 3 finish now.
Later on, Blinds 60-120 - Everett pissed me off on this hand. Everett small blind, me big blind. Fold around to Everett, he shoves all-in in the small blind. I'm holding A-4. What the hell Everett? I guess there is no gentlemens agreement amongst our crew in this game. Of course I fold, and he shows A-4 for the exact same hand. Very next hand, or maybe another revolution, blinds still the same. I'm in the small blind. Fold around to Everett on the button. He just calls. Well, we were in this scenario earlier. Only this time, I have 2-3. I think about folding, but it's only 60 of my 800. This time BigDonkey checks and I breathe a sigh of relief. Flop comes 5-3-3. Yippee! I'm doing cartwheels in my living room, doing the moonwalk, or whatever. I calmly press 'Check'. Big Donkey bets out 120. Everett folds. Should I just call to milk him some more. I slowly hesitate and wait for the timer warning and shove all-in. BigDonkey calls with A-K. Double Up! Back in the game. Only a dent into BigDonkeys stack though. I don't like he has position on me, but hopefully he'll be smart and just coast to finish in the Top 3, which he could do with his chip stack.
After the double-up, I only have about 1700, but amazingly I'm now 2nd in chips. Everyone else is about even in the 1000-1200 range. Everrett may be the short stack with about 800-900 now. Another big moment comes up with me in the small blind again. One of the unknowns in late position shoves All-In preflop. This is the 2nd time in the past few hands he has done this. He's rarely played in pots. I have 10-10. I think for a little bit. If I call and lose I'm not out, but severly crippled. I have 1700 vs his 1100 and change. 1700 chips is not going to get me into the Top 3, so I decided to man-up and call. He shows 2-2. I'm loving it! Unfortunately, the flop comes J-7-2. I'm now pissed off, cursing up a storm. The turn comes a 9. The miracle 8 comes on the river to give me the straight. I'm jumping for joy, doing a handstand, or whatever. Actually, the action was so fast since it's online, it took me a second to realize I had a straight.
We are now down to 5. Another round or so. BigDonkey has not played a pot and maybe realizes he can coast now. Same situation like earlier comes up again. Everett small blind, I'm big blind. Everett shoves all-in preflop trying to gather my blind. However, I have A-9 and a healthy chip stack and am not laying it down. Everett shows J-9. Board doesn't help him, and we are now down to 4. My goal now is to kind of coast and not to play a pot with Jay hoping he can squeeze into the Top 3 also. Jay is 3rd in chips right now with around 2000. I have about 4800, BigDonkey has about 6500. Short stack has a little over 1000. Blinds getting kind of up there, Jay shoves all-in, BigDonkey calls. Jay has A-K, BigDonkey has J-J. King on the flop. Jay doubles up. Now I'm hoping Jay is thinking like I think, lets just work together to get the short stack out of here. Right when I was thinking it, the short stack is all-in with BigDonkey. BigDonkey has Q-Q, and short stack has A-Q. As many suck outs BigDonkey has had this game, I was rooting for him. There is no Ace on the board and we have our Top 3. Me, Jay, and BigDonkey. 2 out of 3 seats not bad and everyone has a piece of each other.
FTOPS Event #1 starts tonight at 9:00. Looking at the numbers, I just realized there may be 3500-4000 people in this. I would expect it to take 10-12 hours to finish up. Hopefully, me and Jay can represent and use our sick day tomorrow. I'll try to do a blog on playing in it also.
Friday, January 25, 2008
Not Much Going On
With no football this weekend, not much going on in the sports world except for college basketball. This is one of the more boring years of college basketball I can remember. NBA is worthless watching until the playoffs. Can we go ahead and have a Pistons/Celtics and Suns/Spurs conference finals? Hockey has been dead for years. Living in the south my whole life, I never watched it or grew to watch. The sport didn't invest in its community and the younger generation is moving on to other things.
Random Thoughts for the week:
Is this Brady walking boot thing a smoke screen? I watched all of the Chargers-Patriots game and didn't remember seeing an injury. Looks like Vegas isn't buying it b/c the Super Bowl line has not moved much.
I think the 12 point line is too big for the Super Bowl.
Who cares about this Tiger Woods, noose, comments BS. No one cares about golf. Golf is one of those sports people get more enthused as a participant than watching it.
After picking UNC to finish #1 in the ACC and GT to finish last, UNC loses at home and GT reels off 2 in a row. It's still early in the season.
Just got DVR last week and watched more TV this week than I have in a while. Thought the new show 'Moment of Truth', was over-hyped. 'Deal or No Deal' is still fun to watch. 'American Idol' has lost its luster. 'American Gladiators' and 'Celebrity Apprentice' have been surprisingly good. Starting to become addicticted to watching 'Las Vegas'.
Going to the movies on Saturday. Can't decide on 'Bucket List', 'Cloverfield', or 'Rambo'. Have a gut feeling Rambo will be a bomb. Wife wants to see 'Bucket List', but 'Cloverfield' has gotten really good reviews and did well at the box office last week.
Random Thoughts for the week:
Is this Brady walking boot thing a smoke screen? I watched all of the Chargers-Patriots game and didn't remember seeing an injury. Looks like Vegas isn't buying it b/c the Super Bowl line has not moved much.
I think the 12 point line is too big for the Super Bowl.
Who cares about this Tiger Woods, noose, comments BS. No one cares about golf. Golf is one of those sports people get more enthused as a participant than watching it.
After picking UNC to finish #1 in the ACC and GT to finish last, UNC loses at home and GT reels off 2 in a row. It's still early in the season.
Just got DVR last week and watched more TV this week than I have in a while. Thought the new show 'Moment of Truth', was over-hyped. 'Deal or No Deal' is still fun to watch. 'American Idol' has lost its luster. 'American Gladiators' and 'Celebrity Apprentice' have been surprisingly good. Starting to become addicticted to watching 'Las Vegas'.
Going to the movies on Saturday. Can't decide on 'Bucket List', 'Cloverfield', or 'Rambo'. Have a gut feeling Rambo will be a bomb. Wife wants to see 'Bucket List', but 'Cloverfield' has gotten really good reviews and did well at the box office last week.
Thursday, January 17, 2008
UFC 80 Preview - BJ Penn vs Joe Stevenson
I've been following the UFC for the past 2 years. I think Mixed Martial Arts (MMA) is one of the most exciting sports to watch. I remember watching in the early days with Royce Gracie at the frat house in college on our cheater box. I took a sabbatical up until 2006 for UFC: USA vs Canada, when I went to it live in Vegas. I was hooked again. The sport is growing and as time goes by, will evolve even more. I think there should be some rule tweaks, but I'll get into that another day.
Preview: BJ Penn vs Joe Stevenson
BJ Penn is one of my favorite fighters. He has all the tools. Very good at everything: striking, jijitsu, ground n pound, etc. However, his downfall has always been his conditioning. I think he's over his non-conditioning and watching UFC Countdown the other night, he looks very focused. Penn has 4 losses in his career, all to world class fighters (Matt Hughes, GSP, Lyoto Machida, Jens Pulver). He could have very easily won all those fights. I think the BJ Penn domination tour starts this Saturday. Joe Stevenson is a good fighter and I like his attitude, but he's faced nowhere near the competition BJ Penn has faced. I just hope this fight is not a 25 minute hump fest with little action all on the ground. I expect Penn to submit him.
Gabriel Gonzaga vs Fabrico Werdum
Gonzaga has revenge on his mind in this fight. Werdum defeated Gonzaga very early in his career. Both fighters have come a long ways since that fight. Gonzaga moreso than Werdum. Gonzaga shocked the world by beating CroCop. He turns around and looks scared against Couture. I thought Gonzaga should have dominated Couture, but I think nerves got to him. Werdum's last fight was against Andrei Arlovski. It was a lackadasical fight. I thought Werdum could have won the fight if he would have been agressive the whole time. His striking was not that bad. Arlovski looked as if he was fighting not to lose. Both are World Class jijitsu competitors. I think this fight will go the distance. 2 fighters coming off loses usually results into fighting not to lose. I give the edge to Gonzaga. He has the size advantage. Hopefully he'll use his leg kicks more, which he failed to do against Couture in the early part of that fight.
NBA Basketball Pick:
Cleveland/San Antonio Under 181.5
Preview: BJ Penn vs Joe Stevenson
BJ Penn is one of my favorite fighters. He has all the tools. Very good at everything: striking, jijitsu, ground n pound, etc. However, his downfall has always been his conditioning. I think he's over his non-conditioning and watching UFC Countdown the other night, he looks very focused. Penn has 4 losses in his career, all to world class fighters (Matt Hughes, GSP, Lyoto Machida, Jens Pulver). He could have very easily won all those fights. I think the BJ Penn domination tour starts this Saturday. Joe Stevenson is a good fighter and I like his attitude, but he's faced nowhere near the competition BJ Penn has faced. I just hope this fight is not a 25 minute hump fest with little action all on the ground. I expect Penn to submit him.
Gabriel Gonzaga vs Fabrico Werdum
Gonzaga has revenge on his mind in this fight. Werdum defeated Gonzaga very early in his career. Both fighters have come a long ways since that fight. Gonzaga moreso than Werdum. Gonzaga shocked the world by beating CroCop. He turns around and looks scared against Couture. I thought Gonzaga should have dominated Couture, but I think nerves got to him. Werdum's last fight was against Andrei Arlovski. It was a lackadasical fight. I thought Werdum could have won the fight if he would have been agressive the whole time. His striking was not that bad. Arlovski looked as if he was fighting not to lose. Both are World Class jijitsu competitors. I think this fight will go the distance. 2 fighters coming off loses usually results into fighting not to lose. I give the edge to Gonzaga. He has the size advantage. Hopefully he'll use his leg kicks more, which he failed to do against Couture in the early part of that fight.
NBA Basketball Pick:
Cleveland/San Antonio Under 181.5
Wednesday, January 16, 2008
2008 ACC Basketball Predictions
As a Georgia Tech grad and living in North Carolina, you can definitely say I'm in ACC Country. I have always followed ACC basketball, even in my youth in Georgia. I think the ACC will be uneventful this year. There's the North Carolina Tar Heels and Duke Blue Devils, then everyone else. There are a lot of bad teams in the ACC this year, including my GT Yellow Jackets. The ACC is not the dominant conference this year. I don't think there is a dominant conference this year. Right now, it looks as if the Pac-10 is the best conference this year top to bottom, but they aren't dominant either. A lot of major conferences are top heavy like the ACC. This could be a year where we see a lot of mid-majors rise during the NCAA tourney.
Now for my ACC Predictions, yes, I know, we are a game or two into conference play, but pre-season predictions are useless in college basketball with teams relying so much on freshman nowadays. Right now, we have a gauge of some of the teams.
1. North Carolina
2. Duke
3. Clemson
4. Boston College
5. Maryland
6. Virginia
7. Miami
8. Wake Forest
9. Florida State
10. NC State
11. Virginia Tech
12. Georgia Tech
I break the ACC into 4 tiers. UNC is Tier 1. Duke is tier 2. 3 thru 8 is Tier 3. 9 thru 12 is Tier 4. By tiers, I mean each team is ranked in their Tier and I expect them to remain and will not move up or down a tier. Teams 3 thru 8 are the toughest to predict. I'm confident in the tier, but the order was tough to predict. I'm not sure if I can trust Clemson basketball. I think Wake Forest is the wild card of the bunch. They can potentially rise to 3 by the end of the season. They have the right tools. Miami is off to a great start, however, like Clemson, it's hard to trust Miami basketball. Virginia made a good run the second half of the season last year and their best player, Sean Singletary, is back. Could see the same this year. I may have BC up a little high. I've seen them play a couple of times and am not impressed. I would not be surprise if they falter the 2nd half of the season. Maryland is an anomaly. You just don't know which Maryland team shows up each night. Yes, I'm putting my boys (GT) last. I think this is a very bad, undisciplined team. I'm not going into detail right now. That's for another blog.
PICKS FOR TONIGHT (1/16):
Virginia Tech +5.5
Georgia Tech +11
Orlando Magic -1
Now for my ACC Predictions, yes, I know, we are a game or two into conference play, but pre-season predictions are useless in college basketball with teams relying so much on freshman nowadays. Right now, we have a gauge of some of the teams.
1. North Carolina
2. Duke
3. Clemson
4. Boston College
5. Maryland
6. Virginia
7. Miami
8. Wake Forest
9. Florida State
10. NC State
11. Virginia Tech
12. Georgia Tech
I break the ACC into 4 tiers. UNC is Tier 1. Duke is tier 2. 3 thru 8 is Tier 3. 9 thru 12 is Tier 4. By tiers, I mean each team is ranked in their Tier and I expect them to remain and will not move up or down a tier. Teams 3 thru 8 are the toughest to predict. I'm confident in the tier, but the order was tough to predict. I'm not sure if I can trust Clemson basketball. I think Wake Forest is the wild card of the bunch. They can potentially rise to 3 by the end of the season. They have the right tools. Miami is off to a great start, however, like Clemson, it's hard to trust Miami basketball. Virginia made a good run the second half of the season last year and their best player, Sean Singletary, is back. Could see the same this year. I may have BC up a little high. I've seen them play a couple of times and am not impressed. I would not be surprise if they falter the 2nd half of the season. Maryland is an anomaly. You just don't know which Maryland team shows up each night. Yes, I'm putting my boys (GT) last. I think this is a very bad, undisciplined team. I'm not going into detail right now. That's for another blog.
PICKS FOR TONIGHT (1/16):
Virginia Tech +5.5
Georgia Tech +11
Orlando Magic -1
Tuesday, January 15, 2008
NFL Roundup! NFC/AFC Championship Predictions
We've got the NY Giants vs Green Bay Packers in the NFC and the New England Patriots vs San Diego Chargers in the NFC. Before we get to my predictions, let's get my thoughts on the past weekend's results.
The Chargers and Giants shocked most everyone by winning this weekend. The Chargers moreso than the Giants. That was a gutsy performance by the Chargers, especially with all the injuries. However, I think the soft coaching from Tony Dungy and the poor defensive play cost them the game. There was poor tackling, giving up the big plays, and crucial turnovers in the red zone. It seems like almost every year, a team with a bye comes out flat. A lot of it has to do with the coaching. Yes, Dungy has a Super Bowl ring. Dungy led teams have a history of coming out flat and soft. See Tampa Bay and Indy before last year.
As for the Cowboys, very similar to the Colts. However, you could see the struggles from the Cowboys coming a mile away. If the Cowboys defense didn't play soft, I think they would have won. How many missed tackles did Toomer dodge, not break, on the 1st TD? It was unexcusable to let the Giants get away with that 2 minute drive at the end of the 1st half. Wade Phillips made a mistake giving the team the bye week off. It's playoff time! Their minds should be on football all throughout the playoffs. Romo can go to Cabo after the SuperBowl. The Cowboys and the Colts were suffering from the same virus. They expected to cruise through their games last week, but the Giants and Chargers wanted it more. Give the Giants and Chargers credit. They stepped up when they needed to and took advantage of mistakes.
Now for predictions for this weekend. The AFC Championship kicks off first. The Patriots are favored by 14 points. I think the Patriots blow out the Chargers. I am personally rooting for the Chargers. LT is in a class by himself on and off the field. However, I think the injuries will catch up to them. Chris Chambers has stepped up big for the Chargers the past few weeks. It will not be enough. Belichick will shut down Rivers and LT like they did their meeting earlier in the season. Brady will be Brady, Moss will be Moss, and the Pats will be the Pats. I expect the Patriots to win by at least 3 TDs.
The NFC Championship is very interesting. They are expecting a high of 7 degrees for the game. Everyone wants to see Brady vs Favre in the Super Bowl. Eli Manning has been playing very well as of late. It's been a collective team effort by the Giants. Favre is on a magic carpet ride. Ryan Grant had a game for the ages last week. I think this will be a close game. Even with the weather conditions, I don't think the Packers will have a great advantage b/c they aren't use to these conditions. Don't expect an air it out game from Favre this week. I expect the Packers to win a close won though. The Packers receivers against the beat up Giants secondary will be the difference in the game. I like the Packers to win, but not by the 7 point spread.
NFL PICKS:
New England -14
NY Giants +7
Stronger Play on New England.
The Chargers and Giants shocked most everyone by winning this weekend. The Chargers moreso than the Giants. That was a gutsy performance by the Chargers, especially with all the injuries. However, I think the soft coaching from Tony Dungy and the poor defensive play cost them the game. There was poor tackling, giving up the big plays, and crucial turnovers in the red zone. It seems like almost every year, a team with a bye comes out flat. A lot of it has to do with the coaching. Yes, Dungy has a Super Bowl ring. Dungy led teams have a history of coming out flat and soft. See Tampa Bay and Indy before last year.
As for the Cowboys, very similar to the Colts. However, you could see the struggles from the Cowboys coming a mile away. If the Cowboys defense didn't play soft, I think they would have won. How many missed tackles did Toomer dodge, not break, on the 1st TD? It was unexcusable to let the Giants get away with that 2 minute drive at the end of the 1st half. Wade Phillips made a mistake giving the team the bye week off. It's playoff time! Their minds should be on football all throughout the playoffs. Romo can go to Cabo after the SuperBowl. The Cowboys and the Colts were suffering from the same virus. They expected to cruise through their games last week, but the Giants and Chargers wanted it more. Give the Giants and Chargers credit. They stepped up when they needed to and took advantage of mistakes.
Now for predictions for this weekend. The AFC Championship kicks off first. The Patriots are favored by 14 points. I think the Patriots blow out the Chargers. I am personally rooting for the Chargers. LT is in a class by himself on and off the field. However, I think the injuries will catch up to them. Chris Chambers has stepped up big for the Chargers the past few weeks. It will not be enough. Belichick will shut down Rivers and LT like they did their meeting earlier in the season. Brady will be Brady, Moss will be Moss, and the Pats will be the Pats. I expect the Patriots to win by at least 3 TDs.
The NFC Championship is very interesting. They are expecting a high of 7 degrees for the game. Everyone wants to see Brady vs Favre in the Super Bowl. Eli Manning has been playing very well as of late. It's been a collective team effort by the Giants. Favre is on a magic carpet ride. Ryan Grant had a game for the ages last week. I think this will be a close game. Even with the weather conditions, I don't think the Packers will have a great advantage b/c they aren't use to these conditions. Don't expect an air it out game from Favre this week. I expect the Packers to win a close won though. The Packers receivers against the beat up Giants secondary will be the difference in the game. I like the Packers to win, but not by the 7 point spread.
NFL PICKS:
New England -14
NY Giants +7
Stronger Play on New England.
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